Notes: +EVolution of poker #6

+EVolution of a poker player #6

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Post-preflop and the Flop

- Getting mentally prepared for the flop
- Flop situation variables
- Specific flop situations

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** Post-preflop (Pre-postflop?) **

- Be prepared for different flops and situations
- KNOW THE STACK SIZES

Make it a compulsion!

- Reads/History? How can we exploit this player?

Fit/fold villains - bet a lot of flops
Auto-bettor - check to him when you have a good hand
Calls flops, needs a hand on the turn - fire zero or two barrels

- The hand reading process begins

Did he raise or call preflop?
Realize that he might be attempting to read you!

(UTG raise - mostly pocket pairs or two big cards)
(BTN raise - top 50% of hands, premiums less likely)
(TAG with a high 3-bet%, call raise from SB - pairs, suited broadway, much less AA-JJ, AK)
(Weak calls in position - pairs, decent suited, Ax)

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** Flop Situation Variables **

- Dry flop v Action flop (board texture)
- Absolute v Relative strength of a hand
- In position v Out of position
- Deep stack v Shallow stacks
- Multiway v HU

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** Flop Textures **

- First question: What is the nuts? The wetter the flop, the worse sets and lower look.

As7h4d - set of aces
AsKhQd - JT for the straight
AsKsQs - JsTs for the straight flush
AsAdKh - quad aces

- Are draws possible?

Are there reasonable OESDs?
Flush draws?

- Is there a big high card?

- Two broadway?

These tend to be more action flops.

- Gap size between high cards

The tighter they mesh, the more likely they've his someone hard

- Card removal

The harder you've hit the flop, the less likely your opponent has.

- Villain's range v the flop

* Examples:

As7h2d - About as dry as possible. Only gutshot draws available. TPTK is very strong.

9h9d4s - How likely is Villain to have a nine here? Extremely unlikely. Fours are rarer. Very dry.

9d7d2s - Getting wetter. Flush draws are available as well as some straight draws and a lot of gutshots. Two pair isn't unimaginable.

QhJdJd - Paired, but threatening because it's very much in the wheelhouse for raises and calls. Very good board for bluffing, because you can represent a lot, but still dry. Someone without a hand has a hard time continuing. Aggression is credible.

Ad7d2d - Mono boards are quite wet. Flushes and flush draws are very possible. Two pair hands and less lose a good amount of value.

9s7h5h - Straight and flush draws are possible. This is the type of board that you want to be on the lead with or actually have a hand.

QsTh8h - Wetter than the previous one, because the higher cards will hit more of those hands that people play. Lots of combo draws.

JdTdxx - Any time JTs hits the board, it's very coordinated by definition. Don't blindly stab.

Td8d7d - Huge number of combo draws here. Even two pair has poor equity in the face of a lot of action.

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** Absolute v Relative strength **

- Absolute - the literal value of your hand
- Relative - to what?

The board
Your opponent's range - is 2pr possible for him? A low straight?
Stacks - 50BB deep, TPTK is very strong and you want money in. 200BB deep, you're not so eaget to get all in with TPTK

- This is a big difference between +EV and -EV players

Bad players think in terms of absolute value. Good players in terms of relative value.

- How strong is KsQs on these flops?

QhJh9h - not very. Lots of draws, you opponent has tons of equity with a LOT of different hands. When you're ahead, you're barely ahead. When behind, you may even be drawing dead.

KhJh9d - Better, but we're not happy getting a full stack in here. Against short stacker, get it in, but again we're barely ahead/way behind.

Kd2s2h - Significantly stronger than the other two. We're only behind AK/KK/22, which is a tiny percentage of his range. Better - we're likely to get paid on a street or two by medium pocket pairs.

- Does your opponent's range include two pair on this board? Overpairs? Sets or better? Big draws?

Kd7d4h - Flush draws and sets, but very few genuinely big hands are in his range. Unless he was aggro preflop, he's not likely on a monster here.

KsQdTd - A lot of hands, both calling and raising, hit this flop very hard. If you get raised here, you're a lot more likely to be in trouble.

- Stacks: TP loses value with deeper stacks, while nut draws rise in value.

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** Position **

- Position literally increases the value of your hands at the expense of the OOP players, so you can and should play looser in position.

- Dead money gravitates toward position

- You can bet smaller w/ position

Villain's implied odds are worse from OOP.
Villains will fold more to bets in general

- Play more straightforward OOP, more tricky/bluffy IP

- Play with finesse/smaller pot OOP

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** Stack sizes **

- As you get deeper, the later bets get bigger. When the bets get bigger, you're less likely to be best with top pair hands.

- Deeper stacks = more ammunition. You can make more bluffs and more multistreet plays.

- As your effective stack changes, your commitment threshold changes.

- Stack depth v S/P ratio

- When you raise small preflop, you create a higher S/P ratio - this is advantageous when you have position, and disadvantageous when you're OOP. It is also advantageous to raise large with big cards and smaller with implied odds hands. This is also the reason why big cards are better against short stacks.

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** HU v Multiway **

- More players = higher likelihood that someone has hit the flop

- Which in turn means that bluffs are less effective multiway, and that bets and raises are usually stronger.

- Bluffing can still be effective three ways, not so much four ways (though this does not eliminate semi-bluffing)

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** On the flop **

- First question to ask: Am I committed to this hand? - i.e. Am I looking to get my stack in right now?

If yes, get your stack into the pot in the most efficient manner
If no, avoid bloating the pot with medium strength hands

- Bet sizing: "standard" is 3/4 pot. This is highly variable

Bigger bet if: OOP, multiway, and/or action flop. Betting for value against fish.
Smaller bet if: IP, HU, dry flops.

- Your bets should have intentions (most of the time)

Get a better hand to fold (bluff)
Get a worse hand to call or raise (value)

- Balance - you don't want to make bets that polarize your range too widely, though this is less needed at the microstakes.

If you always slowplay your big hands, the regulars will know how to exploit you. Ditto with never slowplaying or any given play.

** Should I be committed? **

((Turn the corner series))

- Draws

Typically (against an aggressive player)

With 50xBB stacks in a raised pot (S/P ratio is 6-7) - you are strong enough to get all in with flush draws, open end straight draws, and strong gutshots (includes overs or backdoors)

With 100xBB stacks in a raised pot (S/P ratio is 13-14) - you are strong enough to get all in with a combo draw - 2 card straight draw + flush draw, pair + flush draw, OESD + 2 card flush draw

With 100xBB stacks in a raised pot - A-high or K-high flush draw may be enough, depending on fold equity and overcard outs

With 150xBB stacks in a raised pot, you need a premium draw to get all in, and you're often best off playing for implied odds.

Call with your stronger draws (flush draw, OESD on rainbow flop) if you are not committed or if you have good implied odds (drawing to the nuts, fishy Villain, disguised draws). DON'T raise strong draws if you're not committed and will have to fold to a reraise.

- Made hands

Commitment is more difficult and depends on your relative strength and board texture

Estimate your equity when you're ahead and when you're behind all in. Avoid slightly ahead/way behind commitment.

Reads and experience are key.

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** Specific Flop Situations **

-- Limped pots

- Typically come with the highest S/P ratios

- You are effectively deep, so many bets/raises must go in before stacks go in, so the ranges are stronger when the money goes in

- Players are generally apathetic toward small pots

- Thus:

Be cautious, especially when raised
Pick up pots on dry flops or when others seem disinterested
Overbet on the flop to build a pot when you flop a strong hand

-- Raised pots - Option to C-bet

- Check stats/history against this player. Don't trust stats unless you have a large sample size (1k+ hands).

- C-bets don't have to work often to be profitable:

Half pot - 33%
2/3s pot - 40%
3/4s pot - 43%
full pot - 50%
(Also, remember that a good bluff on the turn lowers these numbers further)

- Consider your perceived range. Does Villain think you may have hit this flop?

- Will you be able to fire the turn often?

- Is Villain too shallow for a c-bet to be viable?

- When you have a made hand or good draw

How vulnerable is your hand? (Compare QQ on K72 to 66 on 732)
How will you feel if you get raised in this spot (texture/relative strength) - if this is a bad situation, then you likely do not want to bet - ALWAYS consider how you will respond if you are raised
Position

- When you have nothing

Board texture
Position
Reads

- The problem with c-betting too much is that your range is automatically weighted to the weak side. This means you are exploitable by someone floating you or raising you. C-betting with weaker made hands that cannot stand a raise often results in a -EV spot against aggressive players.

-- Board texture as a factor in c-betting

- C-bet more on dry flops - Villain is less likely to have hit these flops, but smarter players will play back more often on them
- C-bet less on action flops - Villain is unlikely to go away
- Know what you can represent on any given board

-- Position as a factor in c-betting

- Position + Initiative is lethal. It is very difficult to play against a player with both of these to his advantage, so you will often be able to muscle the pot past the flop
- OOP villain must play tighter
- C/R is less effective than raising IP, so c-bets made IP will be raised less often
- You can't take a free card OOP
- Check more of your made hands OOP to avoid getting raised unless you cannot C/C with the hand you have
- Bet a stronger range OOP

-- Reads as a factor in c-betting

- If you have no read, use board texture, stack sizes, position, and relative value to decide on your play

- READ: Villain calls and raises a lot of c-bets - COUNTER: c-bet air less often, check made hands that can't take the heat
- READ: Villain calls a lot, raises rarely - COUNTER: Fire 0 or 2 barrels most often, as the flop bet alone will be -EV without the second bluff.
- READ: Villain rarely calls, often raises - COUNTER: Check made hands/draws that can't take heat; Polarize your range and value TP-big kicker more
- READ: Villain calls/raises rarely (fit or fold) - C-bet relentlessly, except sometimes with your best hands

- Does he bet a lot when checked to?

Yes? Trap check more, turn some made hands into bluff catchers. Assume no free cards OOP.

-- When our C-bet is raised

- Look at the Raise c-bet % stat (15+% is a lot)
- C/R is usually a much stronger hand than an IP raise
- Hand reading top: Players often slowplay on dry flop, rarely on action flops
- Don't give minraises much respect (except from very passive players)
- Typical 3x raise (TAGs)

Are you committed? If so, get your stack in efficiently
Call much less OOP
If you think you should call, how many awful turn cards are there? How often will Villain bluff the turn? Will you push over a bet on a blank? Is there one pot sized bet left or more if you call?