Notes: +EVolution of poker #7

+EVolution of a Poker Player #7

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Flop Play and Turn/River Examples

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** Facing a C-bet **

-- Made hand

- Slowplaying -

Generally best in position, as it ensures that you're getting bets in on every street. When OOP, you're often best off leading or check-raising

Slowplay most often with effectively invulnerable hands

Best against players who bet aggressively. If they aren't going to continue to bet/bluff on the turn, you aren't gaining anything.

- Moderate hands

Typically, you don't want to raise unless you have a good read. When you do raise, you either want to have a hand that you're happy going all in with or a weak hand that you have no problem ditching.

Relative strength might make moderate hands very strong. Dry boards without draws tend to favor medium strength made hands, while draw heavy boards offer your opponent lots of outs

What is Villain's turn c-bet frequency? If he's a one barrel wonder, you can float with a wider range. If he's the type that will fire relentlessly you can't expect to be passive and successful with medium strength.

Do you have added value? i.e. Are you invulnerable if you're ahead, do you have extra outs either through overcards or backdoors?

-- Draws

- Drawing to the nuts

Be more likely to call the c-bet. If you're drawing to a nut hand, the implied odds are very valuable

Nut draws often have some showdown value. With showdown value, you don't want to get blown off your hand.

- Weaker draws

It's okay to raise with a weaker draw as a semi-bluff. Very weak draws can be bet and gotten away from

- Combo draws are quite good to get all in with, as you have excellent equity. You can raise here hoping to either take it down or get all in.

- Play tighter OOP, as usual

-- Raising a C-bet

- READS: Is his c-betting strategy exploitable?

If he's c-betting too often, it's easy to take advantage of. You can simply raise or float the c-bet and take it down most of the time.

If he isn't c-betting enough, you can just give respect to his bets and take down any pots that he doesn't bet at.

- What is his c-bet range?

Does he have any chance of actually having hit this flop?

Is this the type of player that checks when he hits the flop, or does he always bet?

When a thinking player is c-betting on a dry flop, it's a wide range. When a thinking player is c-betting on a wet flop, it's a narrow range.

- How strong is your hand?

You should be raising with the hands that you want to get a lot of money in, i.e. those hands that have a lot of relative strength on this board.

If your hand is weak enough that you can't call, you can opt to raise as a bluff or a semibluff. The strongest hands that you can't call with are good candidates for a bluff.

You should not be raising with medium relative strength hands that are primarilly valuable if Villain does not have the hand he's representing.

*If you don't want to be called, then you probably shouldn't be raising*
*If you're going to puke if you're 3 bet, you probably shouldn't be raising*

- Texture

Is he c-betting a lot? If he is, then you he's c-betting a lot of air on dry boards and you can take it away from him. Unfortunately, you aren't representing much here, either. Thinking players will play back at you more often here with floats and small 3-bets.

On action flops, raising the c-bet is less likely to get a fold as Villain is more likely to actually have a hand that can continue. Raises on this type of flop look very strong as a result.

In-between boards are good places to raise a c-bet. Look for flops that you can legitimately hit with a fair amount of your range, but is unlikely to have hit Villain's range solidly. - Flops such as Q76tt, K97r, 972tt

- Position

Raising in position can be more effective and can be done more liberally.

Check/raising often creates a tough turn decision when you're called. If you do this with a draw, you're often not going to have enough left behind on the turn to push Villain off of a top pair hand. If you have a vulnerable top pair, then it becomes difficult in the face of a bad card. As a result, the C/R is best reserved for very strong or very weak hands.

Generally speaking, you want to raise hands that will have an easier, more profitable turn decision: Big hands, weak hands that can become big, bluffs. Hands that can lead to a bad turn spot include moderate made hands with little room for improvement (pocket pairs), and strong but not premium draws (flush draws and OESDs)

-- Floating

- Calling with nothing with the intention of taking the pot down later with a bluff

- This can easily devolve into FPS

- Outs are nice (but then it technically isn't a float)

- You want to make this type of play against predictable opponents - one barrel wonders and fit-or-fold types with high flop c-bet percentages

- Use sparingly

- Typically best on dry boards, as Villain is that much less likely to have hit.

** Against a missed c-bet **

- Frequently bet IP

- Would this Villain auto-bet with missed hands? His moderate made hands?

- Is Villain tight or straightforward?

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** Playing in 3-bet pots **

- Similar guidelines to normal pots, but your S/P ratio will almost always be very low.

- Ranges are typically much more defined.

Tight players calling a 3-bet usually have medium-high pocket pairs or AJ/AQ type hands

- Lots of money in the pot = high incentive to steal

- Bets are typically a smaller portion of the pot - try to imagine the S/P situation on the turn. You want to be able to push all in on the turn comfortably if you're on the lead.

-- Playing as the 3-bettor

- Villain's range is tighter than usual, includes a lot of pocket pairs and strong suited broadway.

- Your range is also tighter than usual, and includes most premiums.

- You can bet smaller, so your c-bet doesn't need to succeed as often to be profitable

- Small S/P ratios make top pair stronger and much harder to fold

- ALWAYS know how you will respond to a raise

-- Playing as the caller

- Low S/P ratio, so you can push with weaker hands

- This includes some weaker draws if you have any kind of fold equity

- There is less wiggle room in position. Even if you make a small raise of a c-bet, you'll be committed with anything decent after raising. Floating is problematic as you don't have much ammunition and it will be expensive to make the play.

- When stacks are deeper, there is more wiggle room for bluffing IP

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** Turn and River play **

** Turn play

-- What does opponent's range look like?

Compare when Villain calls on:
- K83r
- T98

- K83r - He's likely to have a reasonable number of pocket pairs, any king or eight, and possibly AT/AJ types of hands that we can push away. We can barrel a lot on the turn. However, against tighter opponents, he's much more likely to have a king that he's not going to walk away from.

- T98 - He's not calling light here. We're either running into strong top pairs or pair+draw hands, so multiple barrels is unlikely to be a successful strategy.

-- What about When he c-bets those flops?

- K83r - Most aggressive players will c-bet almost 100% of their range here.
- T98 - Scary board, so he's going to get rid of some of his complete air and weak made hands. His c-bets are correspondingly stronger

-- How does the turn connect with his range?

- A on called K83? A lot of Villain's range is pocket pairs and weak top pairs. He's not going to be happy with this card.
- J on called T98? This connects very well with his hand, likely making a straight or two pair.

- Overcards are typically the best two barrel cards. As top pair is usually the strongest part of his calling range, an overcard weakens the top of his range

- Bad two barrel cards are those that connect strongly with the board, particularly those that complete existing draws.

-- Watch out for awkward S/P ratios

- Anticipate what the stacks will be on later streets
- You should never be betting half of your stack

- 1.75 S/P ratio is awkward

If you make a standard bet ($175 stacks, $100 pot) then you are committed ($100 stacks, $250 pot).

If you're bluffing and bet less, you are offering great odds to chase. If you're betting for value, you're allowing draws the odds they need to come along profitably.

- 3 S/P ratio isn't awkward

$300 stacks, $100 pot - bet $75 = $225 stacks, $250 pot - perfect shove on the next street

-- How many more bets do you want going in?

If one, then the decision is to bet the turn or to check and let Villain bet the river

If two, then there is always the risk that you will be check-raised and three bets may be forced to see a showdown

- If you choose to bet, what purpose does your bet have?

Can you get Villain to fold better hands?
Can you get Villain to raise or call with worse hands?
Is there a need to protect my hand? (vulnerable, action board, big pot)

** River Play

- Hand reading is (almost) everything

If your opponent will call a bet with a worse hand 50% of the time, you have a profitable bet.

- Bet aggressively for value, esp. against bad players

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** HAND EXAMPLES **

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** AhJs in the SB, 3-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to $1, BB (60xBB) calls

((ME: Immediate thoughts are that I'm going to have a hard time getting away from top pair on the flop. AK/AQ are the only hands that dominate me and Villain's range is likely going to be fairly wide against this range, including a lot of lesser aces. We lack a big S/P ratio.))

Flop: JdTd9h ($2):: Hero bets $1.50, Villain calls

((ME: Top pair, extremely wet flop. Any diamond, K/Q/8/7 is bad for me. Worse, I'm OOP. My relative strength isn't all that great. Checking here and then leading on a safe turn seems a valid option, as does c-betting - though I'm not happy if I get raised.))

We want to protect our hand and we're likely best NOW. So I'm overanalyzing the hand. Unless we're up against KQ or JT/J9/T9, we're good right now.

Villain's call eliminates vulnerable monsters from his range. He's not likely on 2 pair or a set... maybe a straight, but that's less likely.

Turn: 5h ($5):: Hero bets $4, Villain calls

How does this connect with Villian's range, which is mostly make up of pair+draw hands? It didn't. We can continue to bet strongly here, as we expect Villain to call us with a lot of worse hands. If he was behind, he's still behind now.

River: 5c ($13):: Hero bets $8, Villain calls with QTo for a pair + OESD on the flop

All of the draws missed and we've already decided that his made hands are almost all worse than ours. Villain has $8 left behind, put it in the middle.

** Ks8h on the button, 6-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .50, BB calls

BB is recognized as 2+2 player, has some ability, TAGgy 22/17 stats. The minraise is designed to get maximum value from a steal

Flop: 8s3d2d ($1.10):: Villain checks, Hero bets $.75, Villain calls

((ME: We have a vulnerable top pair on a dry board. Villain's range is very wide here, given that he got to see the flop extremely cheaply. Still, this is a difficult board to hit and we want to charge him to see another card.))

The nice thing about having a hand like this is that our current relative value is very high. If Villain is better now, he's either on a set or an overpair.

Turn: 2h ($2.60):: Villain checks, Hero bets $1.75, Villain calls

((ME: best card in the deck. Completed nothing and took away some of the few combinations that are ahead of us. Villain is still unlikely to believe that we have much. Continue firing for value.))

River: 5s ($6.10):: Villain checks, Hero bets $4, Villain folds

Does Villain have any portion of his range that's beating us here? Very little. Standard river bet. There's no reason to bluff here as the vast majority of his range is 77/66/44 and possibly some flush draws. A draw would likely have bet at some point, as we're simply not likely to have much from his perspective on previous streets.

** AsKc UTG, 6-handed 10NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .40, BB calls

Standard

Flop: 9h3s2d ($0.85): Villain checks, Hero bets .60, Villain calls

Standard c-bet spot. Villain is very unlikely to have hit this flop and we're ahead of anything that isn't a pocket pair. Throw in position and we have an easy decision.

((ME: When Villain calls, this could very well be a bad float OOP, but also includes a significant number of PPs in his range))

Turn: Ks ($2.05): Villain checks, Hero bets $1.50, Villain calls

Hard to get away from this even if Villain were to C/R as all we're losing to is a set. We're extremely confident of our hand in this spot.

River: 3h ($5.05): Villain bets $3.20, Hero pushes for $10, Villain folds

Another excellent card for us. Villain's range for beating us just declined. His lead here can't profit against most of our range if he doesn't have a monster. Given how little he has left behind, we can't be afraid of his stack and if he has any kind of a pair he almost has to call given the huge pot odds he's being offered.

** QsTh in the CO, 4-handed 10NL

Preflop: hero raises to .30, BB calls

Standard

Flop: Qh8h5h ($0.65): Villain checks, Hero bets .40, Villain calls

((ME: Top pair + flush draw, but against players at this level we're probably not good against strong aggression when the flush comes in. Still, we should have good equity here most of the time. A c-bet should be standard.))

We can check here. If we get C/R here, it's a puke situation, but outside of a monster on Villain's part we're pretty invulnerable. Betting is standard.

((ME: On Villain's call, he likely has something - a queen, a decent pocket pair, or a heart of his own. This isn't a spot where we're looking to build a monster pot.))

Turn: Kc ($1.45): Villain checks, Hero checks

Not much reason to bet here. We stand a good chance of having the best hand here, but we won't if a lot of bets are going in here. Checking behind also prevents us from being put in the spot of having to fold to a checkraise)

We want one bet to go in here - easiest way is to check the turn and call the river.

River: Ts ($1.45): Villain bets .70, Hero raises to $2.40, Villain calls with AcQc.

This is a situation where if he had a flush, he'd be betting big here - or at some point earlier in the hand. He likely has a weaker made hand.

** As3c in the BB, 6-handed 10NL

Preflop: MP limps, button limps, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: AcKh4c ($.40): SB checks, Hero bets .30, MP calls, button calls, SB folds

In this spot, there's a lot of players that will call this kind of a flop with a king, assuming that the lead from the harmless BB is an attempt to take down the pot. We may also get called by a gutshot. Reads may change this decision.

Turn: 4s ($1.30): Hero bets $1, MP calls, button folds

Good card for us, as it eliminates kickers from the equation. AK/KK/AA are very unlikely on the action, so we're only losing to 4x. With two callers, it's very likely someone has a flush draw and will pay

River: 6s ($3.30): Hero bets $1.50, Villain calls w/ KcQd

What is Villain's range here? Mostly flush draws, kings, and aces. We beat the kings, split with the aces other than A4/A6 and beat the flush draws. Depending on how we weight his draws/made hands determines whether or not we bet here or try to induce a bluff.

At these limits, focus more on getting value from your hand than inducing bluffs

** JTs in the CO, 5-handed 25NL

Preflop: UTG raises to .85, Hero calls

Good speculative hand in position. Standard.

Flop: QsTc8c ($2.05): Villain bets $1.55, Hero calls

((ME: extremely wet flop. We have second pair and a gutshot, which is a fair amount of equity with as many as 9 outs against top pair and blockers against some of his potential straights. Is semibluffing here an option?))

This Villain is a tighter player, and is less likely to c-bet with his air. Our hand isn't likely to be best right now, but can easily improve.

Turn: Qc ($5.15): Villain checks, Hero bets $2.75, Villain calls

(ME: Pairing the queen and completing the flush, then Villain shuts down? If he's perceiving our range as strong and his hand isn't, his shutting down makes sense. We could have a queen, we could have the flush - if he had the flush, he'd likely continue betting to get maximum value from a Qx in our hand))

This is the type of board/hand where we can't throw away a genuinely strong hand - we don't have a genuinely strong hand. If Villain is behind us, he can't call but actually has a lot of outs against us

Bet size is too small.

If we had a club, betting here would be worse as our hand is less vulnerable and we wouldn't want to be checkraised.

Old saying -- "Check with outs"

River: 9s ($10.65): Villain checks, Hero bets $4.40, Villain calls and shows AcAs


Villain's hand is most likely a missed flush draw with a pair - KcQh, KcKh... so don't make a big bet when his hand isn't likely strong.

** Ts9h in the CO, 5-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .75, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: 9s7c6h ($2.25): SB bets .25, BB calls, Hero raises to $1.75, SB folds, BB calls

((ME: A reasonably wet board. No flush draws, but a lot of middling cards that connect together. Hero has a gutshot and top pair, which should provide enough to c-bet. Calls will likely be a lot of 98/87 hands.))
((ME: Okay, scratch that - the lovely minbetdonk makes its presence known. SB is a 60xBB stack))

When someone minbets, you can raise them a lot. They're almost always weak.

If BB had a strong hand, he'd likely raise himself. He's not on a monster range.

If SB 3-bets and is aggro, expect to get it in on the turn.

BB range after the call? 87/T7 type hands

Turn: Kd ($6): BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, BB calls

The king changes nothing. Very little of his range on the flop action includes a king.

River: 4h ($13.50): BB checks, Hero bets $7, Villain folds

If we had the best hand on the flop, we almost certainly do now. The bet is thin, but the sort that you need to make against this kind of player for a good win rate.

** AdQh on the button, 6-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .75, BB calls

Flop: Ks9c5c ($1.60): BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, Villain calls

((ME: Looks like a fairly standard c-bet spot. Villain will likely call with any king, PPs 66+, and club draws. There's very little outside of a handful of gutshots beyond that, though something like QcJc has some nice combo draw equity.))

Villain is only 40xBB deep. The flop is so good for a c-bet that even this isn't a deterrent.

Turn: Jh ($4.10): BB checks, Hero checks

((ME: We just picked up a few more outs if we're behind, but we're not likely to push Villain off of any kind of hand here. If checked to, check behind and hope for an A/T river))

This coordinates very well with the board, making a second barrel a poor choice. It hits Villain's range solidly

River: Tc ($4.10): Villian bets $1, Hero pushes, Villain calls and shows Kc7d

We got there. Did he? When someone bets very small on the river it's vanishingly likely that he has a flush here. We beat everything else. He could easily be on Qx, so shove.

** TcTd in MP, 6-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero bets .85, BB calls

Flop: 7c3d2d ($1.80): BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls

((ME: Standard. Villain's range includes flush draws, pairs, and some overcards. Quick note, he's a short stacker at about 75xBB))

Turn: Ad ($4.80): BB checks, Hero checks

((ME: Ugh. First instinct - but not entirely justified as that cuts down on a lot of his flush possibilities. Axdd covered a lot of that range. Sure, he could be on KdQd or something similar, but he's unlikely to have paired the ace and we've likely just improved our overall equity.))

If we don't have the Td, we're more likely to bet in this spot, as we're much more vulnerable. Here, even though we likely have the best hand, we only want one more bet to go in and if we bet here and get fired at on the river... or checkraised... puke time.

River: As ($4.80): BB checks, Hero bets $3, Villain calls and shows Th3h

Villain is that much less likely to have an ace now. If he has a real hand, he's almost certain to bet it out himself, so our tens are good most of the time. Give him the chance to make a bad call. He does.

** JsJh UTG, 5-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .85, button calls, BB calls

Flop: Qd6s5c ($2.65): BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, button folds, BB calls

((ME: looks like a standard c-bet - board is unlikely to hit anyone, and if there's no queen I'm a huge favorite to have the best hand. What's Villain's range? Any Q, pocket pairs 77-JJ, 87...))

Checking the board is reasonable, as we're only afraid of A/K turns. We're also not happy if we get raised.

Turn: 5h ($6.15): BB checks, Hero checks

We only want one bet going in. This is the easiest way to achieve that.

River: 9c ($6.15): Villain bets $1, Hero calls, Villain shows J4dd

No reason to raise here, as if Villain doesn't have a legitimate hand he can't call. We have a bluff catcher, catch the bluff.

** Jc9c in MP, 6-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .85, BB calls

Flop: Ah8c8d ($1.80): BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls

Superdry board. What does Villain have when he calls? An A or 8, maybe a pocket pair. We'd shut down after this, except...

Turn: Tc ($4.30): BB checks, Hero checks

Picked up a huge draw. We can't get him to fold any kind of a made hand, but if we hit our draw we're getting paid on the river. Checking here means we get paid when we hit and give up nothing when we miss.

River: Js ($4.30): BB checks, Hero checks, Villain shows AsQc

Not much to value bet here. Most of Villain's range beats us, and those that don't are unlikely to call a river bet.

** AhTd on the button, 4-handed 25NL

Preflop: CO limps, Hero raises to $1, SB calls, CO calls

Flop: Qd9d3d ($3.25): SB checks, CO bets .25, Hero bets $2.25, SB folds, CO calls

Usually, the minbet is a weak hand or draw. How often is Villain calling on this bet? Often he's a loose player with the minbet, and he thinks he could possibly be good if his hand comes home - or yours doesn't.

Remember, you can make a -EV play now if it will lead to a +EV play on a later street

Turn: 4c ($7.75): CO checks, Hero bets $4.75, Villain folds

If Villain doesn't have the flush or a queen, he can't really call here.

** 6c5d in the BB, 25NL

Preflop: SB limps, Hero checks

Flop: Jd9c6s ($.50): SB checks, Hero bets .50, Villain calls

Villain is loose/passive, we have a piece we bet he calls

Turn: 5s ($1.50): SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB raises to $3.25, Hero folds

((ME: Baluga theorem?))

Villain is unlikely to be bluffing here. Most people are indifferent toward limped pots. Hero has bottom two, if we're behind then we have few outs.

** 7d7c UTG, 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .85, CO, button and SB all call

Flop: 7h4s2d ($3.65): SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets $2.30, SB calls, Hero calls, CO folds

CO and SB are half stacks, button is 160xBB. We've crushed the flop. If we bet, there's very little that can call us and we look very strong betting into two players. Don't chase people out.

That, and the TAG on the button is likely to bet. C/R is just too strong.

Turn: 6s ($10.55): SB checks, Hero bets $5, Button calls, SB calls

Button is unlikely to bluff again without incentive. Betting weak here doesn't look like a whole lot of anything. The pot is big, the board is getting dangerous...

What does it mean when the SB calls? It's annoying, as the pot is now protected - there's going to be a showdown, so there's no benefit to bluffing.

River: Ad ($25.55): SB checks, Hero bets $13.50, Button calls, SB folds. Button shows AQ on the turn float.

Always think about what you're representing. If we bet the flop, we're too strong. If we bet the turn strong, we look too strong. Try to represent what you don't have.