Notes: Omakase #5

Omakase #5
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Replayer w/ Vanessa

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Hand #1 - BB w/ Q8o at 400NL

Villain is loose-passive

Preflop: Button limps, SB (20xBB) completes, Hero checks

((ME: our hand isn't strong enough to do much with right now. Raising could very easily result in the SB deciding to push over us, which we don't want. Sit back, see if we can hit a flop solidly, and if not just wait for the next hand.))

Flop: 9c6c3c ($12): SB checks, Hero checks, button checks

((ME: We have a weak flush draw and a couple of backdoor straights that aren't even necessarilly good. Going away if shown any kind of strength, particularly from the SB.))

Turn: 7d ($12): SB checks, Hero bets $12, loose-passive button calls, SB folds

((ME: our equity just improved against most ranges, but it's still hard to say what cards can come on the turn that are genuinely good for us. T8 and 54 are certainly possible holdings for our Villains, as is a made flush that's being slowplayed. Taking a stab here if checked to isn't terrible as a semi-bluff, but if we get raised we can't afford to continue.))

What's Villain's range? Just about any pair or draw on this board. Still a huge number of possibilities.

River: 6d ($36): Hero bets $60

((ME: let this one run too far before I applied my own commentary. All of our draws just missed and its obvious that they did. I don't like this play - the Villain is loose-passive, which means he isn't that likely to fold a made hand here. Missed draws will chuck it to a weaker bet. Our play is a bluff and it LOOKS like a bluff.))

What is Villain likely to fold here? A seven, maybe. The idea is that Villain's range isn't particularly strong and he may decide to look us up on a normal sized bet.

This is more likely to succeed against a regular, who isn't automatically mashing the call button with any made hand.

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Hand #2 - 5c3c in the SB

4-bet bluffing from OOP against a massive multitabler, called by the 3-betting button.

Villain's range is either a monster or good pocket pairs unless we're doing this a lot. We're almost never facing AK against a decent player. He should be giving us credit for a very big hand here.

Flop A97 - checked through
Turn 7 - checked through
River Q - Hero shoves

The play here is shoving the flop, as we're representing a monster and Villain's range is very unlikely to have AA/99/AK. We have to take advantage of this image immediately or it goes away.

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Hand #3 - KhQc in the CO

Preflop: Hero opens to $12, button calls, SB squeezes to $52, Hero calls, CO folds

((ME: Against a typical player at my limits, the range for this play is going to be strong - big pocket pairs, AK/AQ. More aggressive players may do this with hands like AJs or random trash. Still, my hand is in bad shape far more often than not, so I fold here. My only sure way of having a solid hand is to his an unlikely straight. If I were suited, I'd give more consideration to calling due to having that many more ways of hitting the flop.))

Read on the SB is he's a TAG regular, but likes to 3-bet from the SB. He's had 32 opportunities to 3-bet from the SB and has done so ~20% of the time. This sample is a bit small, but Hero opts to call because of an admittedly thin stat.

Flop: JdJc2d ($120): Villain bets $76, Hero pushes $350

((ME: What's Villain's range here? Pretty much what I listed above. How does he perceive our range? As we called, most likely middle pocket pairs and big, suited broadway. This board is exceedingly dry and the pot big, so our options are limited: check/fold, as we have nothing, or push over the likely c-bet and play up that we hold AJs. Assuming a c-bet, we'll be offering 820:250, or a little over 3:1 odds. If he has anything, he calls us because of the possibility of our bluffing.))

Villain's raise size is such that he's getting 2:1. If he has a flush draw, a jack, or a pair, he's calling. We're risking 350 to win 200 - we need to win 60-70% of the time.

((What outs do we have?

v AA/KK - backdoor straight only = 1
v QQ - 3 kings, backdoor straight = 4
v AJ/KJ/QJ - backdoor straight only = 1
v TT/99 - pairing my card = 6
v flush draw = 4 at most

If we're behind and get called, our equity is effectively nothing. As he's calling with at least half of his range, this is a -EV bluff))

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Hand #4 - QhJc in the BB

Preflop - Button bets to $12, Hero raises to $44, Villain calls

((ME: Would clearly be better if suited. The problem with making this play with this hand is Villain's range if we're called very likely has us dominated. Obviously we fold to four bets, but his range here includes AQ/AJ/KQs and lots of medium pocket pairs - possibly as high as JJ.))

This is a bit of a trap hand. Unless he's calling 3-bets extremely wide, we're in trouble. Villain is TAG and folds 60% v 3-bets.

Flop - Kh8s6d ($90): Hero bets $52, Villain calls

((ME: Completely bone dry flop. It's easy for us to represent the king here, but a lot of his range includes a king as well. Are we really pushing a medium pocket pair out for a single bet? No. If we're going to c-bet here, we need to expect to fire multiple barrels and get away if we get reraised.))

((ME: What does that line mean? Villain's range is still fairly wide - he has something here, but how strong he is is up for debate. Medium-big pocket pairs, AK/KQ))

Turn: Ts ($194): Hero bets $96, Villain calls

((ME: We have some equity now, with a likely 7-8 outs, but this also improve a hand that might have folded to a turn barrel in TT. How is Villain likely to respond to a turn barrel?

AK/KQ/TT/88 - push
QQ/JJ - uncertain, given we're able to three-bet with QJo, these probably push as well
99 and under - fold

We're getting shoved on by a decent portion of his range, and if we shut down we're likely facing a bet we can't call. Shut down, or make a small lead as if to set up a river shove.))

There's always the possibility of a float or something like 98s that came along for the ride. Those will mostly go away on that turn. This time he doesn't, and the bet looks like we're setting up for the river shove. Could he have been drawing? If an AQs/AJs floated on the flop, maybe its calling with the flush draw.

River - 4d ($386): Hero checks, Villain checks and shows T9s

((ME: I don't put much stock in the draw concept here - his hand is a modest made hand or strong one being slowplayed - but then, even his floats have us beaten here. The only choice is to shove or to check/fold. Kx isn't going away, sets aren't going away, and that's a good portion of his range.))

"The one or three situation" - You either need to fire one barrel or three barrel here. The portion of the Villain's range that is weak improved on the turn, so he's calling bets with the expectation of a big payday if he hits. When none of the draws come home, you can bet him off of the pot.

Here, you need to make the bet. There's a lot of hands that will call the turn, fold the river - and there's a lot more people following the C/C/F line. This turn bet doesn't tell us whether he has a king.

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Hand #5 - AcTh UTG 5-handed (200xBB deep)

Preflop: Hero opens to $16, MP raises to $48, Hero 4-bets to $136

Villain is an insane LAG

Why would you shove here 100xBB deep? It prevents Villain from rebluffing. Villain's three-bet range here has a lot of crap in it - and he's going to have to call with a lot of it to not be exploited.