Notes: SSNL Disease #6

SSNL Disease #6

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Why do talented players fail to advance beyond small stakes?

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#6 - Premature read formation

- When you see an action and immediately apply meaning to it without taking variance and ranges into account.

- a.k.al Leaping to Conclusions

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SYMPTOMS:

- Overreliance on early observations

The first time something happens can somehow be applied to your opponents entire game. Just because he doesn't 3-bet AK from the SB once doesn't mean he won't later. Just because he opens A3o UTG once doesn't mean he'll do it again later.

- Projection/assumption

Assuming that your oppenent will fit into your projected framework. "He's a TAG, so he'll behave this way"

Sometimes, substituting in "possibly correct" information for an unknown can make your logic worse

This can also conceal other weaknesses in your analysis

- Depending on too many assumptions

- Incomplete analysis and conclusions

You're doing things half-assed and spewing out a pseudo-logical conclusion

** Get better at recognizing how reliable information is **

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EARLY OBSERVATIONS

Remember: Everything is subject to variance!

- Pull back on your tendency to observe and conclude quickly

Check your sample sizes

- The more variables there are, the more randomness exists

The more competent your opponent is, the more factors he will take into consideration.

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PROJECTION/ASSUMPTION

The other players are not you. The other TAGs are not you.

- Preflop stats are not everything.

- Be aware of creeping assumptions on ranges, hand reading. Eliminate the phrase "I would do this, so..."

Don't extrapolate from your own game.

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ASSUMPTIONS BUILT ON ASSUMPTIONS

Too many assumptions = House of cards. If one falls out, the whole structure collapses.

While we are working in a situation that involves limited information, be sure to identify what assumptions we are working with.

- Focus on identifying the most important variable

- It's impossible to build a logic chain out of thin air.

- Avoid the cyclone of convoluted thinking

"Leveling yourself" - you get in the spot and you're not sure of what the important question is, so you keep spinning from question to question rather than choosing one.

Start from the ground and work your way up. Use your intuition.

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INCOMPETE ANALYSIS

- Identify as many "why" questions as possible
- Determine which of these is the operative question

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CAN YOU EVER MAKE AN IMMEDIATE ASSUMPTION?

Yes!

- Recognize unbalanced play

- Recognize extreme play

Look for plays that are far from the median:

Isolate a fish w/ 95s
Calling raises w/ K2o OOP and playing passively

- Recognize tendencies that exist independently

Ask the why questions

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FIXING THESE PROBLEMS

- Identify when you're projecting and your assumptions

- Remember - VARIANCE

- Turn off your HUD for the first 25-30 hands

- Always ask why