Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Notes: Yin and Yang #2

Yin and Yang #2

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Hand #1 - AJo on the button - ABC against the fish leading on the turn.

Preflop: Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls

Read on SB is that he's a fish/rec player, he's about half a stack. Lots of minbetting and mincheckraising.

Flop: K54tt ($3.50): SB checks, Hero checks

Should we c-bet here? This flop doesn't hit his range very hard at all. He's got a lot of air in this spot that he could be happy to chase with. Mutliple barrels here isn't really a good option, and if he's playing back at us we don't have any idea what he's doing.

We have no reason to bet here, it doesn't clear our situation, we can't be sure of value or bluff. So no c-bet.

Turn: 8 ($3.50): Villain bets $2, Hero calls.

When we check back the flop, he still has a lot of air (which would have folded if we had bet the flop). Players of this sort will often take a stab on the turn with any two train tickets, assuming we've missed. So we call with A-high excellent kicker.

River: Q ($7.50): Villain checks, Hero checks, Villain shows A9o

Villain is unlikely to fold anything that beats us and is unlikely to call with worse. Just go to showdown.

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Hand #2 - ATo in the CO -

Preflop: Hero opens to $1.50, SB calls, BB calls

Blinds are fishy, recreational players.

Flop: QQ5tt ($4.50): SB checks, BB bets $1.50, Hero calls, SB folds.

((ME: Did he actually hit that? Unlikely. He could be on the flush draw or a pocket pair, neither of which is going away to a raise. If we want to represent the queen in his head, are we betting here? No. Just call in position and wait on the turn.))

Just calling could be the best option here, because it doesn't make sense for him to lead out with any kind of strength in this spot. He could be doing this with a weak pair, a draw, or complete air.

Of further note, there's the rec player in the SB. What if we 3bet and get called by the SB? We've put in extra money and are never good. Calling behind here puts the SB in a position where he has to announce his strength compared to our hand. Even if the BB were donking and weak, our call indicates some strength on our part.

Turn: 2 ($7.50): BB bets $2, Hero calls.

((ME: That's a brick. Villain's bets are weak, so betting out to take this down has potential - a raise here will look like a queen. Go for the deep play? It's possible, but if a diamond doesn't peel off, he may call us with a fairly weak hand, hoping we were on the diamond draw. I like taking it down here.))

Overthinking. We can't rep too much here either. Just call again and see the river.

River: K ($11.50): SB bets $5, Hero...?

((ME: He's bet three streets, I likely fold here, but...))

We're getting a good price, and a lot of his range is made up of missed draws and air. We want to see what he has here as well, as this is a likely bet sizing tell.

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Hand #3 - 22 on the button - exploiting ABC, sensing the overset

Preflop: UTG raises to $1.50, MP call, Hero calls

UTG is unknown, MP is ABC regular

((ME: easy call on the button w/ a pocket pair and two already in the pot. If the blinds are fish, that much better.))

Flop: K52r ($5.25): UTG checks, MP bets $3.75, Hero calls, UTG folds.

((ME: Unknown is unknown. He could simply have missed the flop or be going for a C/C with something like JJ, or a big check raise w/ AK or KK. What does the MP have? A king, most likely. This isn't really a great spot for him to bet without a hand, even with the preflop raiser checking to him. Call in position. The flop is bone dry and we want them to pick up a piece of something.))

Turn: 8 ($12.75): MP bets $9.75, Hero calls.

((ME: That's a brick. Again, I have no reason to pump up the pot right now as we're at about a pot bet behind when we call and Villain seems quite willing to try and value bet me here. Keep my strength a secret and call.))

River: A ($32.25): MP bets $14, Hero calls. Villain shows 55.

Do we want to get the money in here? Think about Villain's range:

He called preflop, led when checked to on the flop, led the turn, and is leading the river small.

Does he have AK? He'd three-bet that preflop, most likely.
He's not afraid of the ace, but bet twice before it came.
Can we put Villain 100% on a set? No, he could have Ax here, but not very often. If he has Kx, he's folding to a shove.

Right now, he has the nuts or a hand that folds to a shove, so just call.

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Hand #4 - 88 in MP - playing against the weak donk

Preflop: Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls

BB is a recreational player, very small sample.

Flop: AQ6tt ($3.75): BB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4, Villain calls

If we call here, how is Villain going to react on a blank? Players of this kind like to lead weak, and when you don't raise, he assumes you're weak and continues to fire.

If we raise here, Villain may fold if he has air, but if he has something he'll call and likely check on the turn, allowing us to control the pot better.

Turn: 4 ($11.75): BB checks, Hero checks.

We raised with the intention of checking here and keeping the pot smaller if the Villain missed his possible draw. The draw didn't come home, and the check indicates a weak hand. Just check behind.

River: A ($11.75): BB bets $11.75, Hero call. Villain shows 76o

Villain wouldn't bet an ace this big and would likely bet it on the turn. Call.

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Hand #5 - JTs in MP -

Preflop: Hero bets $1.75, SB calls

Not many reads on the SB, seems a regular.

Flop: A72tt - we have flush draw ($4): SB bets $2.50, Hero raises to $6, Villain clicks to $11, Hero pushes, Villain folds.

What does raising accomplish for us here? We have a stronger hand than the previous one, Villain is a stronger player. If he has any kind of a strong hand, why isn't he just letting us bet? His lead doesn't make any sense.

Our bet size is deliberately small to make him think that our bet is simply to make him fold his hand. We have no history with this player, however he's likely to figure that when we make that smallish reraise that he can represent a powerhouse by coming over the top of us.

Of course, we have decent equity even against a set and fold equity against anything lesser in this spot. Coming all in over the top puts all the pressure on Villain.

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Hand #6 - TT in the BB

Preflop: button raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $5.50, Villain bets $13, Hero shoves, Villain folds.

From that raise sizing, we can assume some experience on the part of the button. Known read - experienced, aggro reg.

Do we three bet or call here? Before we three bet, we have to decide whether we're getting all in if he comes over the top. Check his 4-bet % (in this case, 26%, which is high - so we're likely willing to shove over the top of him).

Key - MAKE THE PLAN BEFORE YOU THREE BET.

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Hand #7 - KQ in the BB

Preflop: button bets $1.50, Hero raises to $5.50

((ME: folding and reraising are both valid choices here. Given the previous hand was discussion three-betting and shoving, lets analyze it from that perspective.

If we three bet here and are four bet, are we ever happy getting it in w/ KQo? No. Most of his range dominates us, while the TT is doing reasonably well if Villain turns over AK/AQ. So if we get four bet in this spot and shove, we're doing it almost entirely as a bluff. He simply isn't turning over JJ/TT all that often.

So our better option here is simply to call behind and see a flop with a reasonably strong hand. If we three-bet and are raised, we bail))

Hero 3-bets. Villain's fold to 3-bet is 60%, and he opts to call here rather than come over the top.

Flop: A93tt ($11.25): Hero bets $6, Villain calls.

((ME: Right of first bluff here. What's Villain calling with? A good number of Ax hands, but also medium pairs.))

What hands are in his range for calling a three bet here. Pocket pairs higher than 99, suited broadway, AQ/AJ.

So we want to bet here and represent the ace. We don't have to make a big bet here, as Villain either hit or did not.

Turn: 6 ($23.25): Hero bets $11, Villain calls.

Villain was calling with a lot of middle pairs and his aces along with any flush draw. We'd be betting AK/AQ here, so something small. The plan here is to make the play that looks like we're trying to draw as much value as we can out of a medium pair on this board.

River: 8 ($45.25): Hero bets $27.50, Villain folds

Following through with the plan. Villain can't call without an ace here, because we obviously have an ace in this spot.

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Hand #8 - K9s in the SB

Preflop: CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.50

Similar reads - TAG reg. We're three betting to balance our range.

Flop: T92tt ($11.50): Hero bets $6, Villain calls

c-betting with second pair in this spot has to be correct. We're happy if Villain folds, but in this case he could easily have an overpair, a set, or a lot of draws. The call removes a lot of his medium strength hands like T9.

Turn: A ($23.50): Hero bets $11.5, Villain calls

If Villain had an overpair, he can't be happy with that card. What Ax does Villain have that called preflop and flop? AT. AK/AQ are likely 4-betting hands, AJ isn't sticking around on that board w/o the flush draw.

Again, we've set up the pot for an easy river bluff shove.

River: 3 ($46.50): Hero bets $30, Villain folds.

He can't be happy without an ace here, and most of his range doesn't include aces.

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Hand #9 - A4o in the BB

TAG palyer on the button

Preflop: Button opens to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.50, Villain calls

We can fold here, or three bet. There's nothing to be gained by calling.

Flop: AK6tt ($11.25): Hero bets $6, Villain raises to $12, Hero bets $50 all in, Villain calls w/ QJo. WTF.

Is Villain flatting KK or AK on the button to the three bet? Unlikely. But if we get it all in in this spot we're probably in trouble. The minreraise isn't a very good play on his part because he's going to run into better hands most of the time if he has a big ace.

So what does he have? His bet is almost always a bluff, so we push.

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Hand #10 - AKo on the button

Preflop: MP short stack limps, decent reg CO limps, Hero bets $2.75, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: T72r ($9): MP checks, CO bets $2, Hero folds (Villain shows 22)

This bet size on CO's part screams strength. He's bet small enough that if MP shoves over the top (likely) he can still reraise, trapping a couple of dollars in the pot.

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Hand #11 - 77 in the BB

Preflop: CO raises to $1.50, button calls, Hero calls.

CO is aggro reg

Flop: A66tt ($5.5): Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero calls

Peeling to see if Villain represents an A on the turn.

Turn: J ($11.5): Hero checks, CO bets $4.5, Hero calls

He's betting small - why? Either his hand is invulnerable (AA/66/A6) or he's on a draw giving himself odd or he's on air. Draws and bluffs outnumber nutted hands and we're getting huge odds to boot. Call.

River: Q ($20.50): Hero checks, Villain bets $16, Hero calls

What does Villain bet here? Nutted hands and bluffs. His AK/AQ/AJ hands play differently earlier in the hand. Again, his bluffs outnumber his made hands, and we want to see what he plays this way for future reference (specifically the tiny turn bet). Villain shows 45 for a pure bluff.

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