First draft - the plan

What's the plan?

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How do we make money playing poker:


If another player plays perfectly and so do we, then there is no money to be made - everything comes down to the luck of the cards and in the long run, those cards will balance out. For there to be a profit, there must be an imbalance. Either our opponent has to make mistakes naturally, or we have to induce those mistakes.

Fortunately, at the lower limits, mistakes are extremely common. We don't need to worry about inducing and can instead focus on simpler, more straightforward play.


What mistakes are our opponents making:


Calling too much - Most players will call with weak pairs, weak draws, and float if they simply don't want to give up their hand in the face of strength.

- Corollary - Not betting good hands correctly for value. Strong hands are often checked back, or small bets are made when larger ones would be paid off.

- Corollary - Calling too many preflop bets out of position with indifferent hands. The disadvantage of weak cards and less information should be profitable for us.


Playing poor hands preflop - Many passive players will call with any kind of connector or any two suited, made worse when they're getting bad implied odds on their money.


Bluffing far too much, and betting far too much doing so - Many players at this level will bet when checked to - but some will simply mash the pot button at every opportunity. These guys can usually be identified by their high aggression numbers and loose preflop play.



Exploiting these mistakes:


Our first objective is to have a good understanding of what our equities are at any given stage. This is made up of two factors - our pot equity (which tells us how likely we are to win at showdown) and our fold equity (which tells us how likely the Villain is to fold to our bet). Because the most common error our opponents will make is to call too much, we should always assume our fold equity is less than we think it should be.

When we have an idea of where we stand within the hand, we can make a more accurate appraisal of whether or not to bet, check/call, or fold.


Value betting - as our opponents are calling off with weaker hands, we can make more money simply by betting more and by betting more thinly against their ranges.

Any time we are looking at a board in which we have strong pot equity and there is a reasonable chance that our opponent can call a bet, we should be giving strong consideration to making one.


Three-betting preflop in position - As the other players are more likely to simply call than to four bet us, we can play with a positional advantage against them and therefore more accurately postflop. They will be calling with weaker hands, allowing us to expand our value betting range.

Against those players that are folding a lot in this situation, we can continue to three bet lightly with modest holdings that do not play exceptionally well postflop. Players that are extremely tight against our three bets open up the possibility of trapping in position with big hands and picking up extra bets from hands that would otherwise fold to our aggression. Before we make this play, we need to be certain that our opponent is aggressive enough to put in a cbet on most flops and extremely reluctant to play against a three bet out of position.

Against those players that are four betting or folding against us, we can choose to polarize our range, three betting with our strongest hands as well as with weaker hands that do not quite justify calling.

When we are extending our three betting range, we need to keep in mind the types of hands that play well in three bet pots should we be called. We want to do this with hands that play well in situations where Stack:Pot equity is low - so more broadway hands and suited aces rather than small/medium pocket pairs and connectors.


Isolating limpers - Players that limp preflop, particularly in late position, almost always have weak hands. We can raise a lot of hands in this situation to pick up the dead money they put in the pot or to play a hand with good equity against them in position. Big cards are favored here.


Inducing bluffs - This is strictly for the overly aggressive players at these limits and works best when we are out of position. They often can't help themselves if they are checked to, so slowplaying big pairs and other strong hands is more likely to get action when our hand is relatively invulnerable.

We should never attempt to induce a bluff from a passive player. They're calling if they have something or if they feel like it. If not, they're not betting.