Notes: The Thin Red Line

Thin Red Line #1
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Theory

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** What is the red line?

- The red line represents your non-showdown winnings

Being a losing player on the red line is not automatically a leak. This depends on how your opponents play. If they never fold, your red line will always be negative because you can never NOT get to showdown unless you fold yourself.

- At micro stakes, you will typically have a negative red line, while you win a lot at showdown because your opponent will call too loosely.

- As you move up into the small stakes, you'll see more people who have a value bet oriented style. In order to beat these stakes, you need to bluff more - a more optimal style will involve winning more against these weak/tight players without getting to showdown.

** How does the red line work?

- People tend to overemphasize the bluffing aspect of the red line. You don't want to become a brainless LAGmonkey.

- Value betting is good for both your blue line AND your red line. The thinner your value bet, the more it benefits your red line.

Consider a river spot where you are ahead 75% of the time:

If you check, you'll show down - 75% of the time, your blue line will go up, 25% of the time your blue line will go down. Your red line is unaffected

If you do value bet, you may get called 50%, winning 30%, losing 20% - Our red line goes up 50% of the time, our blue line goes up 30% of the time, and our blue line goes down 20% of the time.

By value betting here, we are increasing our red line at the expense of our blue line.

- Bluffcatching is good for your red line, because it removes the hand from the red line category. Folding is bad for your red line.

** "The Standard Game"

- This defines your game against unknowns

- It is the backbone of your game, based on assumptions of the average player at your limits

- Once you gain more info on the specific player, you deviate from this plan

- Most players don't deviate much/enough

- Since most players don't adjust enough, you can get away with a LOT at lower stakes

** Devitaing from your standard game Preflop

- Strong hands v Pretty hands

Strong hands - hands that make big pairs that you can value bet and win at showdown

Pretty hands - makes a lot of draws and can often semi-bluff

- Which type of hands you add depends on the type of players at your table

Weak players - add suited cards, as they don't bluff catch enough
Stations - add big cards, as they don't fold enough

- What are their positions and stack sizes?

Players that don't like to fold in position against you? Tighten up and play more big cards

Deeper stack sizes? Favor the pretty suited connectors

- Who is the most likely player to give you action?

The most likely callers to any raise are the button and the big blind. The tightest player will be the small blind.

Fish are unlikely to be concerned with position.

- What is your image?

If you just took a big hit, your image is likely to be bad and you should tighten up.

- Stealing with ATC

You can often do this against regulars. If you open 3x in the SB, Villain must call 40% of the time to keep you from showing an automatic profit. Only a handful of LAGs and fish will do this.

** Deviating Preflop - calling and 3-betting

- Polarized v depolarized 3-betting

Polarized range has a defined bluff range and a defined value range
Depolarized range is an expansion of your value range

i.e. (AA-JJ, AQ+) v (AA-QQ, AK, J9, T8)

- When do we use each?

Polarized vs 4-bet or fold types - this allows us to gain value from all our strong hands rather than having to fold them

Depolarized vs players that call 3-bets

Typically, we will be depolarized from the blinds, as most players are more willing to call a three bet in position. A polarized range is more appropriate to three betting in position - this is not always the case.

- How do you come up with a polarized 3-betting range?

Don't do it by feel. Have a defined range for doing so - when 3-betting choose the top hands that you would normally fold.

To determine this, you need to know what your calling range typically is v these players.

- Your reads and edge determine the hands you can play profitably, so your 3-betting range will be different against different players

- Thus, your opponents' fold to 3bet and 4betting tendencies determine your 3betting frequencies and range

- At 100bb stacks, "Strong" hands play better in big pots than "pretty" hands

So emphasize the big card hands to the suited connectors - i.e. A8o > 96s

** Postflop deviations

- Don't just make the standard 2+2 ABC plays

Standardized strategies leave you exploitable when the Villain is good enough to adjust

- Think about how your opponent plays
- Come up with a strategy to exploit his tendencies
- Execute the strategy. Do it!

** Postflop deviation: strategy (40:00 - watch multiple times!)

- Honest v Dishonest play

Honest actions accurately define your hand
Dishonest actions misrepresent your hand

- Useful stats for spotting honesty/dishonesty

C-bet flop/turn/river (~40)
Fold to c-bet flop/turn/river (~60)
Turn aggression (high c-bet / 30-40% turn bet)

- When dealing with dishonest strategies, do the opposite of what they want you to do

i.e. - players that are likely to float: C/C the turn, double barrel the turn, C/R the turn, or even C/F the flop if our hand is hopeless