The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Goals - stage one

2010-11-07T16:29:00.000-08:00

Just the initial stuff that I'll be hammering out in further detail over the next few days:

1) Have all of my current debts paid by 12/31/10
2) Purchase a new motherboard/processor/video card for my computer by 1/15/11
3) Learn enough to beat 100NL at 5bb/100 by 3/31/11
4) Remove all unhealthy foods from my regular diet by 12/31/10
5) Complete the first Pimsleur Japanese series by 12/15/10
6) Have my apartment cleaned by 11/30/10

Obviously, some of these are actually sub-goals of a larger objective (which I should spell out), and all of them need action steps put into place for their achievement. All of them are doable with some dedication and effort.

Notes: Shuffle and Flow #4

2010-11-02T17:08:00.000-07:00

Shuffle and Flow #4
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Goal Setting

** The reason most people never reach their goals is that they never really define them, or ever seriously consider them as believable or achievable.

Winners can tell you where they are going, what they plan to do along the way, and who will be sharing the adventure with them. **

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The Goal Setting Process -

(Sample goal - I want to get in shape)

The problem with this goal is that it is far too vague to have any actual direction. You won't know where to place your effort and what steps to take.

Define further - (I want to lose fat)

This is an improvement, in that we now know what types of resources to seek out, but...

Define further - (I want to lose 20 pounds of fat in 8 weeks)

Now we know how much we want to lose and how quickly we want to do it. We can now measure our progress, which is important. The more specific we are, the better we can define how close we are to our goals.

All goals should be:
Specific
Measurable
have a Deadline

If we fail to achieve a goal, we know that either:
Our goal was unrealistic, or
Our strategy was ineffective.

Next Stage - (I want to lose 20 pounds of fat in 8 weeks by reducing my calorie intake and increasing the intensity and duration of my regular exercise. I'll be doing cardio 4x a week and engaging in resistance training after each session. I'll be following a program laid out for me by a qualified professional.)

Now we've begun the process of breaking a long-term goal down into shorter term goals - losing 20 pounds of fat/8weeks turns into 4 cardio/weight sessions.

Break your goals down into smaller, actionable steps - as far as is necessary to fit them into the everyday routine of the To Do list.

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Task-based goals -

Require yourself to do a certain amount of studying, discussion, etcetera...

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Surround yourself with other poker players who are as ambitious as you are.

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Homework - Diet for an average day - Log three days of food

Notes: Shuffle and Flow #3

2010-10-30T19:50:00.001-07:00

Shuffle and Flow ep 3
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Time management -

** Time = Life.
Therefore, you have two choices: Waste your time and waste your life, or master your time and master your life. **

** Don't be fooled by the calendar. There are only as many days in the year as you make use of. One man gets only a week's value out of a year, while another man gets a full year's value out of a week. **

Most people underestimate how much time and effort goes into being an elite level competitor - they put in more effort and take in more information in a day than most do in a week or a month.

He who manages his time best, wins.

To be the best, you have to outwork the rest.

When you manage your time better, you will be able to relax more in the downtime - because you'll know you've dealt with what you needed to deal with.

To Do List Template -

Include even the most obvious things on your list - meals, work, shower, study time, poker sessions, blog posting.

By including tasks from a wide section of life, it makes it easier to check things off through the day and making it psychologically easier to do things on the list.

If you fail to complete a task, circle it at the end of the day and mark it down on the list for the next day.

Assign priorities to your tasks - 1,2,3,4... - and attempt to complete them in that order.

Homework::

Write down your goals for your life about anything - a minimum of five. Take some time and think about each goal before adding it to the list.

Notes: Shuffle and Flow #2

2010-10-15T20:01:00.001-07:00

Shuffle and Flow #2
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** The first step is admitting that you have a problem **

Game Film -

The ability to effectively analyze "game film" (videos, sweat sessions, critiques, talking about hands) is one of the most crucial skills, because it helps you to outline a path to improvement.

This includes analyzing yourself, analyze more skilled players, and breaking down your stronger opponents to find their weaknesses.

When watching a video or having a sweat session done - take notes, rewind and review important sections. Try to figure out what they are actually thinking. Review the notes a day or two later and make a list of things this tells you that you need to improve.

Keep a notepad at the computer to remind you of the leaks you're addressing.

Study with the intention of learning, not with the intention of receiving validation.

Go deep into any hand you need to analyze, including those that appear standard. Including those hands that turn out well for us - Just because we win the hand or the result is positive does not mean that we played well or optimally.

Pokertainment is not studying. Studying without a plan for retaining the information is not studying.

At my current level, I need to be both player and coach - I need to outline my own path to improvement, I need to gather the information. I need to discipline myself to following that path.

(This series is about building that path)

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Exercise and Assessment

What does poker mean to me? - Poker is a means to being my own boss and to financial independence. I dislike the concept of relying on a job or another person's evaluation of my worth or ability to pay me to determine my income. Poker is a harsh meritocracy, and that is a positive thing.

Why do I play? - To improve, and ultimately to be one of the best in the game.

What is my goal? - I want to be able to support myself in comfort without burning myself out on the game.

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Everybody wants to become better. What are you doing to become better?

Am I willing to make sacrifices to improve? WHAT SACRIFICES?

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Being aware of your leaks is the first step - identifying how you can close off these leaks is the next step.

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Homework assignment (27:00) -

In order to become the best player you can be, you need to optimize the use of each hour you have to work with.

** Write a daily to-do list for improvement.
** What does this do for you?
** How does it make you feel?

Notes: Shuffle and Flow #1

2010-09-28T14:28:00.000-07:00

Time to start getting serious again. I'm once again employed, the finances will resolve themselves in a little over a month... so now I can get back to my studies.

Appropriately, one of the new series at DC is about success.

** The will to win means nothing without the will to prepare **

1) What do you do every day to prepare for poker

- Currently? Nothing. At my peak I was watching two videos a day and taking notes. Very little of my current focus is on what I need to be doing to be a successful poker player. That's about to change.

1a) How much time do you commit?

- About five hours a week, though it's a very unfocused stretch.

1b) What things are you doing exactly?

I'm watching videos in conjunction with the Mt. Robusto project and doing the occasional bit of analysis away from the table.

2a) What things could you be doing more of that you aren't doing enough of?

Huge laundry list
- playing poker
- watching and studying videos
- analyzing my results
- planning away from the table
- getting my mindset right and positive (I get frustrated too easily)
- being involved in conversations about the game in forums and on Skype
- getting Nan to watch me play ;-)

2b) What things should you be doing that you aren't doing at all?

- Watching others play live and having them do the same for me

2c) What are you doing that you should not be doing?

- Wasting time. I quite literally throw away the hour+ of time I spend to and from work, mostly on negative thoughts. I watch too much Youtube trash, read forums for games I don't even play any more... all of this doesn't even qualify as recreation. Just waste.
- Killing my own mindset. Negative thoughts, bitching about work and family. This can only have a bad impact on me.

Bungee poker

2010-08-03T09:21:00.000-07:00

If I ever make a public blog, that'll be the name.

Yes, Variance is still kicking me in the ass. Down four buyins in an hour, KK into AA, JJ into KK BvB, QQ losing to the mighty 86s all in preflop...

Ah well, at least I had a strong run breaking up the continuous losing, so I'm in the black so far this month in spite of the losses. Will get back to it in a little bit, once I've let the emotions drain.

I'm actually happy with the progress I'm making on picking up on the hands of players. Still needs work and consistency, but the effort is in place.

An end to frustration

2010-08-01T19:06:00.000-07:00

Need to get that post off the top of my screen.

Things recovered fairly well in the second half of last month - after bottoming out, I turned on a heater and peaked out at +30 buy-ins for the month

And then the next crash came. Still in it. Down about fifteen buy-ins since the peak as we come into August.

It's frustrating, yes. Can't win a race. People chasing bad draws and hitting without anything approaching the correct odds. Spike my set at the same time they spike their gutshot that didn't have the odds to call even if I didn't have two of his cards in my hand.

But I need my confidence now, more than ever. I've beaten these limits. I've beaten them badly. I can chip up just fine - I'm just losing when the big money goes in the middle.

And that turns around.

Hopefully soon.

Frustration, part deux

2010-07-10T14:51:00.000-07:00

Getting wiped out at the tables over the past four days. It's disgusting.

Down 3.5 buyins
Down 5 buyins
Up half a buyin
Down 3.5 buyins

There's some bad spots in there where, looking back, I know I made the wrong play. But the vast majority of these losses are things that I simply can't do anything about. My big hands aren't holding up, especially on preflop and flop all ins. KK into AA, QQ into KK, AK into KK... and when I do have the edge, they hit miracle flops over and over again.

My gut is churning right now as I'm writing this. When they say tough way to make an easy living, they aren't kidding. I can see this kind of an emotional roller coaster wearing thin very quickly.

My biggest leak, part 2

2010-06-27T13:57:00.000-07:00

One thing I've been noticing is that I have an obsession with overpairs. I stack off with them far too much when my opponent is radiating strength, to the point of ignoring Baluga raises on the turn.

#3 - putting Villain on a range - should help. On it's own, it isn't going to be enough. I have to recognize that when my opponent is raising and willing to get all the money in the middle, his range tightens up appreciably. This is almost never a pure bluff - and the regulars at these limits don't tend to stack off aggressively with top pair hands, either.

Recognize the difference between the casual fish and the more dedicated grinders. Stack off more lightly against the fish who can't lay down top pair. Don't stack off lightly against those who aren't making a big move without two pair or better.

I'm also going to take a tip from the Professor Plotkin/SSNL disease videos and doing some range analysis and hand planning exercises over the next few days/weeks as part of my study program. Yay, math and spreadsheets.

My biggest leak and how to fix it

2010-06-21T21:37:00.000-07:00

My biggest leak - calling off too lightly.

How can I fix this?

1) Slow down when you're involved in a pot. All too often I find myself simply glancing at a board and thinking "I can value bet here" without giving due consideration to what my opponent can actually call with. By actually putting him on a range of hands that can call, I can more readilly determine when it is reasonable to believe he's hit his draw.

2) Realize that people chase draws. When a player who has been check/calling throughout the hand suddenly gets busy and I haven't taken steps to induce a bluff, give serious thought to what he may be holding.

3) Put Villain on a range. Mentioned in 1 and 2. Worth giving its own slot. Again, all too often I'm simply rushing through the hand. I'm allowing momentum to carry me along, and that's no way to maximize my poker winnings.

4) Keep emotion out of it. I know there are times when I comment out loud that he can't possibly have hit that. Nine times out of ten, he's hit precisely what I don't want to believe he's hit. When he tells me I'm not good anymore, tend to believe him unless I have a specific read that he'll spazz.

I'm going to give some thought tonight to specific strategies involving this - most particularly in terms of slowing down my actions when I'm involved in a hand. This lead is costing me about a buyin a night, which amounts to 5BB/100... which is the difference between good results and outstanding results.

Analysis: First draft - three betting

2010-06-21T10:47:00.000-07:00

** Why do we three bet?

This depends upon how our opponent will react to three bets.

Against the typical player, who makes the mistake of calling too often, we are three betting for value and to play a pot in position. This combination becomes even more profitable for us in the long run when it is done in larger pots, for obvious reasons. Our opponent is left in the awkward position of often going unimproved on the flop and facing aggression with a low stack/pot ratio making floating and chasing iffy propositions.

Against more regular players, we will often encounter a four-bet or fold philosophy. Against these players, we are betting to take advantage of the fact that they will often have to fold perfectly good hands to our aggression because of the likely significant gap between their preflop raising range and their four betting range.

** How does this affect what cards we three bet with?

Against the calling player, we expand our value betting range with more high cards - AJ/AT/KQ/KJ/QJ types of hands that will be able to hit good top pairs, or will be able to represent high cards that hit the board and miss our opponent's hand.

Against the four bet or fold player, we polarize our range. If we were to expand with the same range of hands, we would often find ourself in the position of losing value with strong hands such as KQ, as our opponent will simply muck those hands that we dominate. Nor do we want to add in hands that come with excellent implied odds such as suited connectors and pocket pairs. Instead, we add in hands that we are less happy to call with, but still have some potential to hit big postflop should another player call - A6s-ATs, Kxs, and the like.

First draft - the plan

2010-06-16T11:21:00.000-07:00

What's the plan?

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How do we make money playing poker:

If another player plays perfectly and so do we, then there is no money to be made - everything comes down to the luck of the cards and in the long run, those cards will balance out. For there to be a profit, there must be an imbalance. Either our opponent has to make mistakes naturally, or we have to induce those mistakes.

Fortunately, at the lower limits, mistakes are extremely common. We don't need to worry about inducing and can instead focus on simpler, more straightforward play.

What mistakes are our opponents making:

Calling too much - Most players will call with weak pairs, weak draws, and float if they simply don't want to give up their hand in the face of strength.

- Corollary - Not betting good hands correctly for value. Strong hands are often checked back, or small bets are made when larger ones would be paid off.

- Corollary - Calling too many preflop bets out of position with indifferent hands. The disadvantage of weak cards and less information should be profitable for us.

Playing poor hands preflop - Many passive players will call with any kind of connector or any two suited, made worse when they're getting bad implied odds on their money.

Bluffing far too much, and betting far too much doing so - Many players at this level will bet when checked to - but some will simply mash the pot button at every opportunity. These guys can usually be identified by their high aggression numbers and loose preflop play.

Exploiting these mistakes:

Our first objective is to have a good understanding of what our equities are at any given stage. This is made up of two factors - our pot equity (which tells us how likely we are to win at showdown) and our fold equity (which tells us how likely the Villain is to fold to our bet). Because the most common error our opponents will make is to call too much, we should always assume our fold equity is less than we think it should be.

When we have an idea of where we stand within the hand, we can make a more accurate appraisal of whether or not to bet, check/call, or fold.

Value betting - as our opponents are calling off with weaker hands, we can make more money simply by betting more and by betting more thinly against their ranges.

Any time we are looking at a board in which we have strong pot equity and there is a reasonable chance that our opponent can call a bet, we should be giving strong consideration to making one.

Three-betting preflop in position - As the other players are more likely to simply call than to four bet us, we can play with a positional advantage against them and therefore more accurately postflop. They will be calling with weaker hands, allowing us to expand our value betting range.

Against those players that are folding a lot in this situation, we can continue to three bet lightly with modest holdings that do not play exceptionally well postflop. Players that are extremely tight against our three bets open up the possibility of trapping in position with big hands and picking up extra bets from hands that would otherwise fold to our aggression. Before we make this play, we need to be certain that our opponent is aggressive enough to put in a cbet on most flops and extremely reluctant to play against a three bet out of position.

Against those players that are four betting or folding against us, we can choose to polarize our range, three betting with our strongest hands as well as with weaker hands that do not quite justify calling.

When we are extending our three betting range, we need to keep in mind the types of hands that play well in three bet pots should we be called. We want to do this with hands that play well in situations where Stack:Pot equity is low - so more broadway hands and suited aces rather than small/medium pocket pairs and connectors.

Isolating limpers - Players that limp preflop, particularly in late position, almost always have weak hands. We can raise a lot of hands in this situation to pick up the dead money they put in the pot or to play a hand with good equity against them in position. Big cards are favored here.

Inducing bluffs - This is strictly for the overly aggressive players at these limits and works best when we are out of position. They often can't help themselves if they are checked to, so slowplaying big pairs and other strong hands is more likely to get action when our hand is relatively invulnerable.

We should never attempt to induce a bluff from a passive player. They're calling if they have something or if they feel like it. If not, they're not betting.

Notes: Unconventional Wisdom #1

2010-06-11T05:50:00.000-07:00

Unconventional Wisdom #1
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Playing in 3-bet pots

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Bluffing with the lead
Cold 4-bet bluffing
Jamming when Villain is unlikely to have hit
Delayed floating
Flop steals
Playing with a hand

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** KJs in the CO, 200NL

* MP raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, Villain calls

- Why do we 3-bet here?

Take the initiative
Villain's range is wide

* Flop A97r ($51) - Villain checks, Hero checks

- This is a good board for us because Villain is unlikely to have anything... and it's a bad board for us because Villain is unlikely to have anything.

As dry as this board is, a standard line with an ace will generally be to check it through, as there simply isn't much that the Villain can call with.

If we think that this opponent is aware of that, we can check this through here and still have the same fold equity on the turn.

* Turn Q ($51) - Villain checks, Hero bets $32, Villain folds

If Villain checks here, he almost never has an ace. The turn card really doesn't change much.

Note the bet size - people are playing more straightforwardly in these spots, so we can bet less both with bluffs (giving us better odds) and for value (because the pot is already big, and therefore it is easier to get the money in on the river).

** 33 in the BB, 200NL

* LAG button raises to $8, 3-bet happy SB raises to $26, Hero reraises to $56, two folds.

- Again, bet sizing. We don't need to bet a whole lot here because our line is hugely strong. We have plenty of room to fold because our hand is weak.

Use cold 4-betting as an alternative to folding against overaggressive players. Don't use it a LOT, however. This is a sparing play.

** AQs UTG, 200NL

* Hero raises to $7, Villain raises to $22, Hero reraises to $56

- Villain has been three betting us a lot and we're both 200xBB deep, so we're expecting to be called by a lot of hands. He's getting excellent odds, so he's going to take advantage of them.

* Flop 874tt ($112) - Hero bets $76, Villain folds

- But he can't continue on as much here. The key here is to make this play with a hand you have no problem ditching should you face aggression and miss the board - AQ/AJ rather than QQ/JJ.

** AQs on the button, 200NL

* MP limps, Hero raises to $9, SB calls, BB raises to $38 and Hero calls

- Generally, if you're going to call a three-bet, you have to be in position. Think in terms of Baluga's three advantages - Villain is claiming a card advantage over us (if we had better, we'd be four betting for value), so we need the positional advantage to compensate

- We're calling in this spot because Villain's range is wider. There's only one person showing genuine strength with our action, and that's us. We have position, we have big suited cards. That's enough to stick around for the big pot.

* Flop K85tt ($87) - Villain bets $56, Hero pushes all in, Villain folds

- This looks scary, but Villain is going to bet this the vast majority of the time given that we're likely to fold a good percentage. Because of this, Villain's range is wide and often does not include the king... and therefore can't take any heat. As big as the pot is, we're getting good odds on our bluff.

Note - this is a 100% bluff play. We need a lot of fold equity here.

** AQo on the CO, 200NL

* Hero raises to $7, BB raises to $27, Hero calls

- Villain is an aggressive players, so we have no problem sticking around.

* Flop 663tt ($55) - Villain bets $46, Hero pushes, Villain folds

- Villain's bet looks designed to push us off of a hand, so he's unlikely to be doing this with a monster hand. The number of big pairs he has in comparison to A-high and medium pairs that can't stand up to the heat. If we do get called, we're going to have some equity against the medium pairs and flush draws, so...

Again: POT EQUITY + FOLD EQUITY

** 87s on the button, 200NL

* Hero raises to $7, Villain raises to $26, Hero calls

- In this case we're looking to outplay our opponent with position, taking down pots when we hit as well as when he misses.

* Flop 664tt ($54) - Villain bets $38, Hero pushes, Villain folds

((ME: Very similar to the previous hand, except that here we have a bit more equity against overcards (same number of pair outs + gutshot) and are a bit worse against the pairs. Also, Villain's bet is less of a 'get out' type.))

- This is a good spot for us to play back, simply because Villain so rarely has a hand that can continue.

While our plays so far have been bluffy, this is the same way you should play your big pairs/hands in this spot.

** Floating is an option - it represents a medium strength hand (i.e. KJ/KQ on a Kxx board, and will usually put your opponent in the spot of being totally honest on the turn because you apparently have some strength and will be getting such great odds to call on the next street.

** ATs on the button, 200NL

* UTG posts, Hero raises to $8, aggro BB raises to $22, Hero calls

* Flop 963r ($47) - Villain bets $22, Hero calls

- Hero could make the shove play here, but the tiny bet opens up the "delayed float" option. We have overcards and a couple of backdoors.

In 3-bet pots, people will almost always check the turn expecting to C/R you all in with their good hands.

* Turn 4 ($91) - Villain checks, Hero checks

- Very rarely are you going to be bluffed on the river in this spot, so we can check it back safely.

* River J ($91) - Villain checks, Hero bets $52, Villain folds

- Our action has been used to determine how strong opponent is. Once he checks the turn and river, we can take him off the hand with a minimum of risk.

** 74s on the button, 200NL

* Hero raises to $7, SB raises to $24, Hero calls

- Don't call with these cards. Srsly.

* Flop Q95tt ($50) - Villain checks, Hero bets $21, Villain folds

- Compare this board texture to ATT - on ATT, a check might or might not represent strength. Here, it is a lot more likely to have hit our range and his AK/AJ hands aren't going to have good equity against us. Given that we know that he knows this, he's very likely to fold to a single bet unless he is slowplaying the strong hand (AQ/QQ/AKhh).

How much do we need to bet here? No need to bet strongly in this spot, as if we bet, it's with the intention of going all in if we have a realy hand. Make our bets look like the strong hand.

(Note - this is against a regular who has some idea of what he's doing)

Notes: Yin and Yang #3

2010-06-10T10:24:00.000-07:00

Yin and Yang #3
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** JJ in the SB, 100NL

CO raises to $4, Hero calls

- Do we 3-bet or call here? If we get 4-bet by this random TAG, we're planning on calling? We don't have enough of an idea of what his range is in this spot, so we'd be stuck with the calling option

Flop 765r ($9) - Hero checks, Villian bets $7, Hero calls

- ((ME: looks like an easy check-raise spot here. We don't really want to just flat and let a face card come off, putting us into a bad spot. Villain is very unlikely to have a hand that dominates ours.))

Calling is standard - what hands are you C/R here? For value, we need a straight or a two pair/set hand as his calling range is mostly made up of bigger overpairs and similarly strong hands.

Turn A ($23) - Hero checks, Villain bets $17, Hero calls

- Villain is pretty much guaranteed to bet here, as the ace is an obvious bluff card. Do we continue? Sure. This isn't a great spot to bet on the flop with random overcards, so there aren't all that many aces in his range.

River 9 ($57) - Hero checks, Villain checks and shows KQo

- What can we gather from this play? Villain isn't going to bet incredibly bad rivers for his range - which in turn means that if he bets all three streets, he's likely on a real hand.

** T8s in the BB, 100NL

SB limps, Hero raises to $4, SB calls

- Standard play against a SB limper with nearly ATC

Flop J55 ($8) - Villain checks, Hero bets $5, Villain raises to $10, Hero raises to $22, Villain folds.

((ME: Extremely dry flop. If Villain is a thinking player, we aren't getting him to fold here very often. Still, he limp-called, which is a strike against him as a thinking player and our equity isn't particularly good - not much that will improve us on the turn. I'd bet here.))

Not much of a reason to bet big here, but you're in the lead and Villain is likely weak. He's either folding or he isn't - lead out for half pot.

What does this mean? He has a lot more nothing in his range than strong hands given the flop. So we can represent a lot of strength by reraising.

VERY EXPLOITABLE LINE ON VILLAIN'S PART - he simply doesn't have a hand here often enough to justify his play. Against people who do this with very strong hands, take notes.

** AJo in the SB, 50NL

Hero raises to $1.50, Villain calls

- Notes have Villain as too aggro, somewhat spazzy. That he didn't three-bet us tells us something - he probably doesn't have hands like big aces.

Flop A94tt ($3) - Hero bets $2, Villain calls

- Standard

Turn Q ($7) - Hero bets $4, Villain raises to $11 after some thought, Hero calls

((ME: Looks like a good place to fire a second barrel for value. We're ahead of most of Villain's range here - he could have a flush draw, a worse ace, a nine, or a complete float. He could also be willing to spazz out on us if we check to him, allowing us to check-raise hard and get the money in good.))

- Villain expects us to bet this flop with any two cards, so he doesn't think we have much here. Bet again for value.

When he raises, think about his range - Most of the hands the strong hands that he hits on the flop will raise, so he's more likely to have a draw in this spot if he has anything at all.

River 4 ($29) - Hero checks, Villain bets $24, Hero calls and Villain shows J8s

- Villain simply can't have a stronger hand than we do all that often. As we've identified that he's almost always on a draw here, the 4 on the river doesn't change anything and we can comfortably pick off his bluff. Conversely, betting this river doesn't help as it prevents Villain from bluffing into us. Let the spazzy Villain spazz.

** KQs in the BB, 100NL

Unknown SB raises to $4, Hero calls

- Call or reraise? We have a hand that is better than most of his range for the play - but we're almost too good to 3-bet here. If we get 4-bet, we're in a very bad spot, as we don't have enough of an idea of his range.

Flop 973tt ($8) - Villain checks, Hero bets $6, Villain calls

- What does the check tell us? He's not particularly strong and is likely to fold a lot. When he checks and calls, he likely has some showdown value - a modest made hand rather than the draws.

Turn 2, completing Hero's flush ($20) - Villain bets $10, Hero raises to $35, Villain shoves, Hero calls and Villain shows AsKd

((ME: Obviously, our hand is very strong now. Can Villain call a bet from us with worse? We've put him on a medium strength hand, so a resounding "maybe". A9/A7 may choose to call, and if he has the As he will. We should be looking to get value now, even if very little of his range can call, simply because a fourth spade kills any action.

Oh, wait. Villain leads? Does it make sense for Ax of spades to do this? No. With the nuts, he wants us to continue firing, so we're still ahead most of the time.))

- This reads as a blocking bet. Villain probably has a pair that doesn't want to have to call a large bet. Raising is the obvious response.

- What is Villain repping when he shoves? Pair + As? Set?

** 65s in MP, 100NL

Aggro-LAG UTG raises to $3, Hero raises to $10.50, Villain calls

- The advantage to 3-betting this hand here is that you have a hand that is very unlikely to be dominated by his calling range.

What does the call mean? He doesn't have a monster hand in most circumstances, because he doesn't know how often we're going to bluff postflop - and our range should be strong in this spot, so if he has a monster he wants to get it in now. His range is dominated by medium pocket pairs, AQ/AJs

Flop 974 ($22.50) - Villain checks, Hero bets $12, Villain raises to $28, Hero jams, Villain mucks

((ME: Betting here isn't the best of choices. If Villain is on the overpair he could be looking to C/R and get it all in - with our concealed draw, we can sit back and try to hit rather than giving the Aggro-LAG the opportunity to bluff.))

- Betting is standard here. A C/R on his part simply gets him in trouble if we genuinely have the strong hand.

When Villain check raises, is he more likely to have a bluff or a real hand? He has more bluffs in his range when he makes the small bet, because he's left himself with enough room to get away.

** T8s in MP, 100NL

Hero opens to $3.50, FPS-LAG SB calls

Flop K75 ($8) - Villain checks, Hero bets $6, Villain raises to $17, Hero calls

- What does the check-raise mean here? He's not going to do this with a set most of the time, because this is a flop that looks like it hits our range and he can extract more from us on later streets whether we've hit or not. Does he have a big king? Probably not - again, he's very aggressive, so he's probably 3-betting that most of the time. His range here includes a lot of draws, weak pocket pairs that he's turning into a bluff, and complete air. Nothing that can stand up to a lot of action - unfortunately, there's not much we can rep by reraising. Since we aren't reraising our value range, we're not reraising our bluffing range either.

Turn 2 ($42) - Villain bets $32, Hero calls

- If we're going to float the flop, we can't fold this turn.

River 6 ($106) - Villain checks, Hero jams, Villain folds

- If he shoves the river, he expects us to call with a king, therefore if he shoves, we fold. He checks the river - why? Because he doesn't have anything.

Notes: The Thin Red Line

2010-06-06T05:33:00.001-07:00

Thin Red Line #1
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Theory

-----

** What is the red line?

- The red line represents your non-showdown winnings

Being a losing player on the red line is not automatically a leak. This depends on how your opponents play. If they never fold, your red line will always be negative because you can never NOT get to showdown unless you fold yourself.

- At micro stakes, you will typically have a negative red line, while you win a lot at showdown because your opponent will call too loosely.

- As you move up into the small stakes, you'll see more people who have a value bet oriented style. In order to beat these stakes, you need to bluff more - a more optimal style will involve winning more against these weak/tight players without getting to showdown.

** How does the red line work?

- People tend to overemphasize the bluffing aspect of the red line. You don't want to become a brainless LAGmonkey.

- Value betting is good for both your blue line AND your red line. The thinner your value bet, the more it benefits your red line.

Consider a river spot where you are ahead 75% of the time:

If you check, you'll show down - 75% of the time, your blue line will go up, 25% of the time your blue line will go down. Your red line is unaffected

If you do value bet, you may get called 50%, winning 30%, losing 20% - Our red line goes up 50% of the time, our blue line goes up 30% of the time, and our blue line goes down 20% of the time.

By value betting here, we are increasing our red line at the expense of our blue line.

- Bluffcatching is good for your red line, because it removes the hand from the red line category. Folding is bad for your red line.

** "The Standard Game"

- This defines your game against unknowns

- It is the backbone of your game, based on assumptions of the average player at your limits

- Once you gain more info on the specific player, you deviate from this plan

- Most players don't deviate much/enough

- Since most players don't adjust enough, you can get away with a LOT at lower stakes

** Devitaing from your standard game Preflop

- Strong hands v Pretty hands

Strong hands - hands that make big pairs that you can value bet and win at showdown

Pretty hands - makes a lot of draws and can often semi-bluff

- Which type of hands you add depends on the type of players at your table

Weak players - add suited cards, as they don't bluff catch enough
Stations - add big cards, as they don't fold enough

- What are their positions and stack sizes?

Players that don't like to fold in position against you? Tighten up and play more big cards

Deeper stack sizes? Favor the pretty suited connectors

- Who is the most likely player to give you action?

The most likely callers to any raise are the button and the big blind. The tightest player will be the small blind.

Fish are unlikely to be concerned with position.

- What is your image?

If you just took a big hit, your image is likely to be bad and you should tighten up.

- Stealing with ATC

You can often do this against regulars. If you open 3x in the SB, Villain must call 40% of the time to keep you from showing an automatic profit. Only a handful of LAGs and fish will do this.

** Deviating Preflop - calling and 3-betting

- Polarized v depolarized 3-betting

Polarized range has a defined bluff range and a defined value range
Depolarized range is an expansion of your value range

i.e. (AA-JJ, AQ+) v (AA-QQ, AK, J9, T8)

- When do we use each?

Polarized vs 4-bet or fold types - this allows us to gain value from all our strong hands rather than having to fold them

Depolarized vs players that call 3-bets

Typically, we will be depolarized from the blinds, as most players are more willing to call a three bet in position. A polarized range is more appropriate to three betting in position - this is not always the case.

- How do you come up with a polarized 3-betting range?

Don't do it by feel. Have a defined range for doing so - when 3-betting choose the top hands that you would normally fold.

To determine this, you need to know what your calling range typically is v these players.

- Your reads and edge determine the hands you can play profitably, so your 3-betting range will be different against different players

- Thus, your opponents' fold to 3bet and 4betting tendencies determine your 3betting frequencies and range

- At 100bb stacks, "Strong" hands play better in big pots than "pretty" hands

So emphasize the big card hands to the suited connectors - i.e. A8o > 96s

** Postflop deviations

- Don't just make the standard 2+2 ABC plays

Standardized strategies leave you exploitable when the Villain is good enough to adjust

- Think about how your opponent plays
- Come up with a strategy to exploit his tendencies
- Execute the strategy. Do it!

** Postflop deviation: strategy (40:00 - watch multiple times!)

- Honest v Dishonest play

Honest actions accurately define your hand
Dishonest actions misrepresent your hand

- Useful stats for spotting honesty/dishonesty

C-bet flop/turn/river (~40)
Fold to c-bet flop/turn/river (~60)
Turn aggression (high c-bet / 30-40% turn bet)

- When dealing with dishonest strategies, do the opposite of what they want you to do

i.e. - players that are likely to float: C/C the turn, double barrel the turn, C/R the turn, or even C/F the flop if our hand is hopeless

Notes: The Coaching Tree #3

2010-06-06T01:04:00.000-07:00

Coaching Tree #3
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50NL

-----

** 88 in the SB

Preflop: Hero completes after CO limps

- Raise in this spot. Any pair is good, because the player who's limping that late is likely to call, then C/F most flops - we have good card advantage and skill advantage against this kind of player. Raise to isolate and for value.

** Our goal with a late position raise is to play pots with the blinds.

** Plan your bet sizing - If you want the pot big, plan your bets to set up a shove on a later street. If you don't, keep it smaller.

** Suited connectors have more postflop value than preflop value - don't three bet with them in most circumstances.

** You want to play pots with the bad players

- Iso-raise loosely
- Call in position with hands that can hit hard

** Three advantages of isolation

Skill advantage
Card advantage
Position advantage

- When you have more of one of these, you can concede others - i.e. playing loosely on the button (Position v Card advatage)

** Think about why we play certain kinds of hands against certain kinds of players

** WHY AM I BETTING

** Most players are not capable of overbet shoving on the river without the nuts.

- Most people simply think about what cards they have

** Don't go out of your way to flip with a draw unless there's a lot of dead money in the pot

Never accuse the gods of variance of being on your side

2010-06-03T03:10:00.000-07:00

And... Variance slaps me in the face again. All in on two turns against people with the bare flush draw and nowhere near the equity they need to get there, and they spike. Throw in losing w/ AJ on 6AA6K and three buyins go bye-bye.

I can't really be too upset. Looking down my hands played this month, there's a pretty heavy lean toward my gettin all in with 70%+ equity - when I'm getting crushed, it's because someone managed to spike a set against my overpair. So I'm playing fine right now and I've dealt with my spew - just dealing with runbad at the moment.

Turning it around

2010-06-02T20:47:00.000-07:00

That was quick. The gods of variance like me suddenly.

I made a few flash cards and have been posting them on the edge of my monitor when I've played today. Whenever I've thought about making an emotional snap call, seeing those out of the corner of my eye has helped me to slow down and realize what I'm about to do.

That, plus some rungood = +5 buyins over 1500 hands today.

Frustration

2010-06-01T16:13:00.001-07:00

One problem that I'm observing with my mindset is a too frequent sliding into "This is what I have" rather than "What does my opponent have?" I'm finding that it leads me into far too many snap calls and snap shoves, right into the face of obvious strength. I did it three times today. Terrible.

Slowing down and mandating the thought process at every stage is the solution. Until I have that down, I'm never going to be a consistent winner.

Self Analysis: Focus

2010-05-26T22:47:00.000-07:00

Focus:

One of the topics that has come up in the videos that I've been watching recently - and one that I've been concerned with on my own - is having a proper thinking process at the table. Fortunately, one came up fairly early in the Coaching Kristy series, shortly after I had discussed this with a more experienced player on Skype.

This is a good thing.

My difficulty right now is properly applying this at the table. I'm often finding myself playing on automatic - this is particularly the case when I'm running badly, but I can hardly excuse the fact that I sometimes do this while I'm running well as well.

This is a bad thing.

Now, in all fairness, the thought process is something that is new to me and is going to take some time and effort to apply to my game. What needs to be done is to practice this process conciously, both at and away from the tables.

Step one: forums

Both the DC and 2+2 forums provide a huge pile of hands per day for me to break down on a street by street basis. I can play through them in my head by simply using a 3x5 card to cover up the next street and going through the mechanics.

Step two: short play sessions

While I still intend to play longer ones, I'll be applying Tommy Angelo's principle of changing the goal of the game. For short, single table sessions on Rush, I will make my goal not winning money, but rather running through the system and planning out the hand in advance each time.

Step three: background

I've been thinking of having something playing in the background while I play. Tommy Angelo's series should do nicely, and it has some suggestions for dealing with these issues that I'll be looking for.

Step four: away from the table work

Something Baluga Whale suggested was to spend time away from the table writing about poker. That was one of the original purposes for this blog, but it has often been buried into simply a note repository. I'm going to change that a bit, writing more of my own material for my own edification. The notes are wonderful, but having to hammer my own thoughts together should help to make the ideas my own.

Notes: Coaching Kristy #3

2010-05-26T15:36:00.000-07:00

Coaching Kristy #3
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** Differentiate between bad players playing back at us and good players playing back at us.

** It isn't a big deal to get bluffed off a hand. It *is* a big deal to pay off with a worse hand.

** Don't get LAG into someone 3-betting you unless you have a very good read. Respond tightly at these limits.

When you start firing back at the wrong people, you turn from a good aggressive player into a bad aggressive player - effectively owning yourself.

** Raising v Floating

- There is usually no benefit to floating with air, and you give Villain the opportunity to hit.

- When you have ...

Lots of equity - raise
Medium equity - call
Little equity - maybe call
No equity - fold or raise

** People in position win more than their share of multiway pots

Why? Because people have to play more straightforward as bluffing is highly unlikely to work multiway. Thus, they either value bet or C/F.

** Playing the big draw

- Don't be in a rush to get it all in! Usually, you're running into a race when you get stacks in - you're more likely to get paid by calling and stacking him when you hit. Often, raising is just killing your implied odds.

- Consider the implied odds of your situation when playing a big implied odds hand!

- Consider whether there is actually any dead money on this flop - and if there isn't, can you create some? Give odds to other players still acting behind, get an extra bet when you hit your draw

- Why would you jam against a fish who's never folding without a made hand?

** Make plays to idenitfy how a player works

- after you've been 4-bet by a player, 3-bet him again later in the session with something you won't mind folding to a 4-bet but plays decently postflop. If he folds, he probably just had a hand. If he 4-bets again, move to a polarized 3-betting range.

** Tilting is like an addiction - we're most comfortable in doing things without thinking because our emotional response has taken over our thinking process.

Either shut down the emotional response or step away from the table.

** The most important thing we can do is not pay off passive players at these limits

** When can we call a 3-bet OOP?

When a good player realizes that we're 4-betting or folding against their 3-bet range, he will polarize his range against us. When this happens, we have an advantage against his overall range with our good but not great hands. In this limited circumstance, we can call OOP.

Notes: Coaching Kristy #2

2010-05-26T12:30:00.001-07:00

Coaching Kristy #2
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GET IN POTS WITH FISH

** The creation of dead money

- There are two types of dead money:

Aggressive dead money
Passive dead money

Passive dead money is generated by calling bets
Aggressive dead money is generated by making bets when you will have to fold to a raise

It is better to create aggressive dead money by betting because betting gives you two ways of winning the pot - you can get a fold or you can show down the best hand.

** Playing against a 3-bet

General rule: play tightly
Against very aggro players, you can open up your range more

** Slowplay checklist

- Nearly impossible to be outdrawn
- Easy for opponents to "catch up"
- Few scare cards
- Can still get stacks in the middle

** In low stakes games, remain largely depolarized.

**** Watch this one again ****

Notes: The basic thought processes

2010-05-25T22:06:00.000-07:00

When facing a bet or a raise:

1) Villain passive or aggressive?
2) Therefore, is he likely value betting or bluffing?
3) How many of his value hands are worse than what we have and how many are better? Count up total bluff hands.

When deciding whether or not to bet or raise:

1) Am I value betting or bluffing?
2) If value betting, which worse hands call or raise?
3) If bluffing, do I have pot equity and fold equity?

Notes: Coaching Kristy #1

2010-05-25T21:39:00.001-07:00

Coaching Kristy #1

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Priority #1 - Know WHY you're doing what you're doing.

A bad plan is better than no plan at all.

-----

** WHY do we bet?

- Most commonly, we are betting for value. (to get called or raised by a worse hand)

At lower stakes, it is much more valuable to be value betting until you get raised, because players at this level are much more likely to call with weak made hands/draws/air than they are to fold them.

- The other two reasons to bet are:

Bluff (get a worse hand to fold)
Collect dead money (Bet because Villain can't call)

- When we want to bluff, we need to balance two things:

Pot Equity
Fold Equity

- How do we know when we have good fold equity?

We're deep
The action would make sense for a strong hand
The number of players in the pot
Board texture - does it fit into strong hands?

** Don't call 3-bets OOP

Being OOP really weakens your equity. Four-bet or fold.

** Plans against different players

- Bad passive players - Value bet until we get raised. They only bet for value.
- Bad aggressive players - Value bet until we get raised. They often bet as a bluff, so call them down more lightly.

Value betting is always your top priority!

** The most likely reason you're getting pushed around at small stakes is that they're actually hitting hands.

People that 4-bet almost always have the goods.

** Whenever there is a bad player at the table, there is a limited amount of time in which to get his money before someone else does. Get into pots with the fish, be willing to gamble with them a bit.

** The point of value betting isn't that you have a better hand than your opponent - it's that your opponent will call or raise with a hand worse than yours!

As such, you have to bet smaller sometimes when your opponent simply can't be strong.

** Keeping their heads down

When your opponent either has a showdown value hand slightly worse than yours OR he has a drawing hand - bet the turn for thin value and C/C the river on blanks.

** Don't bluff catch against people who don't bluff!

** Thought process for betting:

Can I bet for value?
Do I have pot equity?
Do I have fold equity?

** Don't get tied to the fact that you're the preflop raiser - you don't always have to c-bet, particularly on very draw heavy and/or multiway flops.

** Distinguish between actual value and relative value (based on the board and the action)

** Go through the thought process whenever you consider betting and whenever you are raised or bet into

Notes: The Coaching Tree #2

2010-05-24T13:36:00.000-07:00

The Coaching Tree #2
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50NL

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** Don't overlimp w/ 88 in the SB.

Generally you will want to raise here with any pair. The limper is likely to fold or C/F the flop. We want to isolate and get the Villain to make a mistake.

It also puts money in the pot, allowing you to win a bigger pot when either Villain folds the flop or when you hit a big hand.

** Why do we raise on the button?

We're trying to play a hand in position against the blinds. Winning the blinds is a nice bonus, but not the primary reason. As such, we want to play hands that have the potential to hit big flops.

Against loose players, favor pairs and big cards.
Against tight players, we're not getting to showdown as often - so our range opens to include more suited cards.

** 20xBB stack limps from the SB

Raising is a reasonable default here. We're betting most flops. On the flip side, this increases your variance. Checking behind allows you to use your skill advantage to a greater extent.

** Play suited connectors and suited gappers in position. Don't fear the squeeze!

** Don't 3-bet suited connectors in position as a standard play. You have more postflop value than preflop value in that circumstance.

Instead, you should 3-bet with hands that don't have the value to call against tight players (or with monsters).

** People call too lightly against 3-bets in position.

** The biggest mistake people make is calling too much.

** Axs, Kxs are great hands for coolering people when you have position.

** When there is a bad player at the table - PLAY POTS WITH THAT PLAYER. Call hands in position, isolate more loosely.

** Against bad players we can play more loosely, because our lack of card advantage is made up for by our skill advantage.

Against good players, we need to play more tightly, because our skill advantage is not as great and therefore we need better cards.

** Three advantages of isolation -
Skill advantage
Card advantage
Positional advantage

** WHY AM I BETTING?

Value?
Bluff?
Pick up dead money?

** The deeper you get and the more passive the Villain, the more cautious you need to be with AK.

You jam AK when you're being 3-bet and 4-bet light, which doesn't happen so much at low limits.

** When you have a big draw that is flipping against the range you'll be getting all in with, it's worth getting it in if there's dead money.

Notes: The Coaching Tree #1

2010-05-23T13:23:00.001-07:00

The Coaching Tree #1
-----

25NL

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** 99 UTG

- Hero raises, button flats
- Flop: QJ7tt - Hero...?

((ME: I'm likely to c-bet here, though I'm not bouncing off of the walls about it. Villain is loose-passive, so he has a lot of hands in his range that we're beating here - lower pairs, weak aces, suited trash - and we're unlikely to be raised. Many of these hands will pay us off for a street, and if not we certainly don't want them hanging around for some free equity. If we get raised on the c-bet, my cards are in the muck instantly. If we get called, we proceed carefully on the turn - barreling any low brick.))

Varying your raise size by position is something to consider - 4x UTG to 2.5-3x on the button. People at these limits are less likely to give you credit at the lower limits, and the bigger the pot is preflop the less your disadvantage when OOP. Also, we're getting more value when our opponent's make more mistakes by calling too loosely.

Our general assumption against players at this level, our assumption is loose-passive.

There are a lot of draws we're ahead of now, but our equity is about 50% against them. We're likely to get called by any 7, J, Q , spade draw, straight draw and this guy is unlikely to ever bluff us - when he's unlikely to bluff us, it's bad to give him free cards. Betting here is the play of choice - we can pick up the dead money when he's missed, and a lot of his range is missing. If we get any significant heat, we're gone.

Going into C/C mode against loose-passive players is generally bad, because loose-passive players don't bluff. They may bet very weak hands, but they don't bluff.

When a flush draw misses against a loose-passive, don't check if you're strong! Bet out and hope to get called. If you have a bluff catcher, check and call a small bet.

** Raise any 2 cards in the BB against a SB limp until given a reason not to. In most cases, they'll simply fold preflop or C/F the flop.

** Flex your bet size depending upon the situation. You can increase your bet sizes when you have a strong hand on the flop and not have it be too noticable. In a spot where your bet size doesn't really matter (short stacks that are easy to get in by the river), shrink your bet slightly.

** TPNK with a trash hand (72 on 743) OOP - don't get involved. Reverse implied odds will chew us up. Also, we're unlikely to be ahead if we get to the river.

** Pot management

Preflop - CO limps, Hero raises in BB w/ A9s
Flop - KJx mono, we have flush. Hero leads out for pot, Villain folds.

We're leading here in the hopes that Villain has the ability to call us. By doing so, we're getting money in the pot early, which makes it easier for us to get money in the pot later while we're still light years ahead.

People will call much more frequently on these flops than you would think.

Not betting the turn often enough is one of the biggest leaks.

** Why is A8o a bad hand to steal with?

Our postflop equity isn't going to be good. Suited hands are often good because we can get the flush draw, allowing us to continue to be aggressive. Remember the early chapters in BW's book.

What kind of mistakes are our opponents going to make? They call too often.

If we have tight players behind us, we want hands that have the potential to hit a lot of equity - suited connectors, suited gappers, even face-trash suited. If we have loose players behind us, we want hands that can hit good top pair hands and get paid by worse.

Be aware of who you're playing against. Choose the type of hands that will play well against them.

** When someone overbets the pot at low limits, don't expect a bluff. (Except preflop)

** 3-betting from the blinds

Preflop - Button raises, Hero 3-bets from the SB w/ ATo, button calls
Flop - T43 - Hero...?

This isn't the best of spots to 3-bet becuase we're getting called a lot by this Villain and our hand isn't particularly strong. It's unclear what we're trying to do here - bluff or value bet against his range.

We're going to have a difficult time getting called by worse here - we can expect to see a lot of hands that flip against us (99/KQ) and hands that do well against us (AJ/AQ).

We shouldn't be reraising here preflop due to the stack sizes - we have bad reverse implied odds. On this flop, C/C is the best option. If we do bet, there's no need to make a big bet here as the board is very dry.

** Playing deep stacked

- Preflop - Hero (KQs) opens UTG, SB calls, BB squeezes, Hero...?

Hero should call here as the effective stacks are 400xBB. We have a hand that can hit monsters, so our implied odds are outstanding.

COOLERS DO NOT JUST HAPPEN - when deep, call raises and reraises with hands that can hit flops hard and be good most of the time. Suited connectors, Axs, pairs.

Always know what you're playing a hand for - this varies depending upon your opponent. Against an aggressive player, you play drawing hands for the big flops that get you all in. Against a passive player, you play them for the big flops AND for the steal opportunities.

Notes: The Coaching Tree #8

2010-05-22T15:42:00.000-07:00

The Coaching Tree #8
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** Playing the nut flush draw BvB

- ATcc in the BB - SB leads, Hero raises, SB calls

Flop: Kc8c6s - SB leads... Hero?

Is this a raising or a calling spot and why?

((ME: Cheating a little as the coaches have stated that both are fine. But under what circumstances?

Raising the flop can work if Villain can be pushed off of a better hand - a stronger ace or a weak pair. It can also buy us two cards for the price of one if Villain isn't going to continue on the turn, allowing us to get a full shot at our equity. If we raise here, it isn't with the intention of barreling the turn. This is likely the better line against tighter and less aggressive players.

Calling the flop invites a turn continuation from a looser, bluffy type of player whom we may be ahead of now. If we hit, he may even bluff the flush himself, getting us an extra street of value. This line looks better against looser and aggressive players.))

What does raising buy us? Dead money if he has nothing, and it may fold out a slightly better hand.

What does calling buy us? If we raise his bet and he folds, we're likely way ahead with the nut flush draw - so we really aren't getting much value from our bet. That said, Villain is much less likely to fold in the BvB situation. Since our fold equity is that much less, our showdown equity becomes more important. Also, the hands that have little value against us anyway likely C/F to a turn bet.

Our pot+fold equity in this spot is such that a raise cannot be bad - but calling stands a good chance of being better.

** Facing a check-raise with a modest overpair

- TsTc on the button - Hero raises, BB calls

Flop: 9c8c8h - Villain checks, Hero bets, Villain checkraises to 3x

((ME: The c-bet is fairly automatic - lots of cards that we don't want to see come on the turn. Any club and any face card is bad for us. When we get C/R, what can Villain have here? Air is a part of his range, as we could easily have missed. Overpairs are unlikely - but there are a lot of draws in his range. Any two clubs, JT, 76. Also, he could easily have a made hand with any given pair or a hand like 87/T8 or even T9.

Our equity against his range isn't very good here. Two overcards and the flush draw have 15 outs, straight draws have 8-11, and we're in big trouble against any 8. When we're ahead, we aren't far ahead - even his likely bluffing hands have 6 outs. When we're behind, we're very unlikely to catch up. Villain is unlikely to fold anything except his air to aggression here, as eights don't make up a lot of our range. Raising is bad.

Can we call? Probably. There are a lot of cards that can help us on the turn, giving us a flush or straight draw to go with our pair. We also have position, so we can make better decisions. Flat.))

It's difficult for Villain to have a lot here. He's either on a monster or air. How can we expand our own range in his spot? Flat big pairs and C/R flops.

Here, we call planning to fold to a barrel against a thinking player. Folding and raising are both bad choices. His range is a monster or air in the absence of any kind of read.

Quick note - his ability to have monster draws here is restricted because we have the Tc.

** The C/R flop - check turn line from Villain

- JhTh - Hero opens from CO, BB calls

Flop: 8h4h4s - Villain checks, Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero calls

((ME: standard. Villain is vanishingly unlikely to have hit this flop. We have 9-15 outs against an overpair and can semibluff the turn.))

Turn: 2d - Villain checks, Hero...

Villain's line is very weak. He took his stab at the pot and is likely giving up in this spot to hero's supposed overpair. Almost no one goes for a double C/R.

Getting people into folding something good is not how you win at poker. They don't like folding overpairs.

** Polarized in position, not polarized OOP v good players
** Not polarized everywhere v bad players

Analysis: Flop equity - Bottom two

2010-05-20T22:08:00.000-07:00

Bottom two vs

- Overcards (76 v AK on T76) = 94.2%

- Gutshot (T9 v 76 on AT9) = 83.8%
-- 1 overcard (JT v K9 on AJT) = 81.0%
-- 2 overcards (T9 v AK on JT9) = 80.3%

- Nut flush draw, 1 overcard (98 v Ad4d on Kd9d8c) = 68.1%
-- 2 overcards (87 v AdKd on Jd8d7c) = 65.8%

- OESD (98 v 76 on A98) = 69.9%
-- 1 overcard (98 v T7 on A98) = 68.1%
-- 2 overcards (98 v JT on A98) = 67.2%

- Middle pair...
-- + overcard (98 v T9 on A98) = 72.3%
-- + gutshot (98 v 97 on J98) = 76.9%
-- + gutshot and overcard (98 v Q9 on J98) = 63.3%
-- + OESD (98 v T9 on J98) = 52.6%
-- + flush draw (98 v 9d7d on Ad9c8d) = 57.8%
-- + flush draw and overcard (98 v Ad9d on Kd9c8d) = 47.2%

- Straight flush draw (98 v JdTd on A9d8d) = 46.7%

- Bottom set (98 v 88 on A98) = 9.1%
- Middle set (98 v 99 on A98) = .25%
- Top set (98 v AA on A98) = .2%
- Straight (98 v JT on Q98) = 17.9%
- Flush (98 v Ad4d on Kd9d8d) = 17.5%

Analysis: Flop equity - top pair

2010-05-20T11:11:00.001-07:00

Top pair vs

- Overcards (QJ v AK on Q63) = 76.7%

- Top pair w/ lower kicker (AK v KQ on K72) = 87.3%
-- w/ gutshot (AK v KQ on KT9) = 72.6%
-- w/ OESD (AJ v QJ on JT9) = 58.8%
-- w/ flush draw (AK v KdQd on Kc8d2d) = 53.7%
-- w/ flush draw + gutshot (AK v KdQd on KhTd9d) = 45.2%

- Nut flush draw (AK v Ad2d on Kc8d6d) = 64.2%
-- w/ overcard (KQ v Ad2d on Kc8d6d) = 55.3%
-- w/ 2 overcards (QJ v AdKd on Qc8d6d) = 47.4%

- OESD (AK v 98 on K76) = 65.8%
-- w/ overcard (KT v A8 on T97) = 60.7%
-- w/ 2 overcards (AJ v KQ on JT2) = 53.1%

- Bottom two pair (AK v 76 on K76)= 25.5%
- Top and bottom two (AK v A7 on A97) = 26.2%
- Top two pair (AK v AT on AT6) = 15.5%
- Set (AK v 99 on A93) = 1.6%
- Straight (AK v JT on KQ9) = 3.7%
- Flush (AK v AdTd on Kd6d3d) = 2.4%

Analysis: Flop equity - overpairs

2010-05-20T10:16:00.001-07:00

Overpair vs

- Top pair (KK v QJ on Q54) = 81.6%
-- dominated (KK v KQ on Q54) = 91.4%
-- w/ overcard (KK v AQ on Q54) = 78.2%
-- w/ gutshot (KK v QJ on Q98) = 67.7%
-- w/ OESD (KK v T9 on 987) = 54.1%
-- w/ flush draw (KK v Td9d on AdTs4d) = 50.2%
-- w/ flush draw+gutshot (KK v Td9d on Ts8d6d) = 41.0%

- Nut flush draw (KK v QdJd on Ad7d3s) = 63.1%
-- w/ overcard (KK v AdJd on 7d6d2c) = 54.2%
-- w/ 2 overcards (QQ v AdKd on 7d6d2c) = 45.4%

- OESD (KK v 87 on 652) = 65.8%
-- w/ overcard (QQ v KQ on JT2) = 58.2%

- Straight flush draw (KK v KdQd on JdTd2c) = 44.8%
- Two pair (KK v JT on JT2) = 28.7%
- Set (KK v 77 on T72) = 8.9%
- Straight (KK v JT on 987) = 3.3%
- Flush (KK v Ah4h on Th7h2h) = 2.8%

Notes: The Coaching Tree #7

2010-05-19T23:59:00.000-07:00

Out of sequence because of MtR - I get #7-8. Will do the earlier ones in the series later.

Coaching Tree #7
-----

Exercise - how much information can you get without using stats?

Ex: At 200NL - player sitting to our right is on 123.85 and completed from the SB. He is likely passive.

Ex: - player on our left with 115.85. He is likely passive.

Be able to understand how your table is going to work without the stats on hand.

-----

** T9o in the BB - SB opens to 3xBB, Hero calls

This is a 3-bet or fold hand. We're not going to flop brilliantly here and our equity is never going to be exceptionally strong. We're going to get to showdown more often BvB because no one ever believes you. Since we don't have the value to play passively, this is a good spot to be aggressive.

Flop: AQ7tt - SB checks

TS thinks this is usually a hand with some showdown value that doesn't want to be pushed around or floated. On air, Villain would likely bet to represent the ace, and on a strong hand he'd be betting to build the pot. The check leans toward weak aces/QJ/QT type hands. He's hoping to induce bluffs from worse hands here.

If we had any kind of value here, we could simply check it through ourselves as we should be able to get to showdown fairly cheaply and identify if that is actually how this player is playing.

As we have no showdown value, betting out here will tell us whether this guy is actually holding a marginal made hand, a monster, or is genuinely afraid of this flop.

** Q4s on the button - Hero raises, passive SB calls

We have some high card value and we're never going to be worried about getting to showdown. We can be aggressive with some top pairs and some flush draws - so against a fish, this is a good hand and position to open up your range. A lot.

Flop: 822r - Villain leads minimum into us.

The normal reaction should be to raise. It's very difficult for him to balance his range, so we're raising to collect dead money.

** KQs in the CO - Hero raises, BB calls

Flop K52 - BB checks, Hero bets $11 into $15, BB raises to $48

What can Villain be holding here? Kx, 55, 22, and complete bluffs. Standard here would be to call and play a turn.

The size of his checkraise is big enough that he can't leverage his stack.

Turn 7 - Villain shoves

If Villain has a set here, this is fine given his preflop bet sizing. That said, this is a fairly thin situation. If he's making this play for value, then we're probably beat - but this is a situation where Villain's range is pretty polarized.

** At lower stakes, people tend to be less willing to put money in on the flop as a bluff. You see a lot of C/F and C/C at this level as a result. When you DO see a C/R, assume it to be a very strong hand unless there are other signs - i.e. the L/RR from a short stack preflop

** 99 in the BB - MP raises, Hero calls

Flop QQTtt - Hero checks, Villain bets $11 into $15, Hero raises to $35

Not a good play. If Villain has nothing, we're pushing him out - but we're unlikely to be outdrawn. If Villain is ahead of us, we're never getting him to fold. This is a lose/lose situation.

If we had no showdown value, then we should be more inclined to checkraise. The theme pops up again - raising with stronger hands and bluffs while exercising more restraing with marginal hands with showdown value.

** 76s in the BB

What type of hand do we want against the fish? Big cards and big hands so we can value bet them to death. With a hand like 76s we can call - and if we hit a big flop we can go nuts. Until we actually have a good hand, however, we should be keeping the pot to a reasonable level.

Drawing hands are good against aggressive players

** JJ in the BB - 963tt

With an overpair to the board, Hero leads and is called in two spots.

Turn: T - Hero checks and it goes all the way around.

Bad. This is a spot to continue trying to get value rather than worrying about the monster set hiding under the bed. The Villains are going to be calling with a lot of hands on that board - there are multiple straight draws available as well as the diamond draw. All of these need to be charged. Two pairs are vanishingly unlikely and medium pairs are common.

You can't get value from a draw after it has missed on the river. Also, making the bet on the turn makes getting money in on the river against weaker made hands trivial. A lot of value is left on the table here.

** 98s in the BB - UTG limps, MP raises, Hero folds

Bad player UTG. Calling here will allow us to get into a likely multiway pot with the fish involved. Our costs are well defined, our implied odds high on a premium drawing hand.

Different hands have different strengths against different kinds of players.

** QQ in the BB. CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO calls

Flop: K76tt -

If we bet here, we're not getting a whole lot of value - there is some thin value available. Our main purpose in betting here is to take down the money in the middle - we're getting called by kings and not much else, so the bet here tells us if we're ever putting another penny in the pot as well as picking up dead money.

If Villain is never bluffing in this spot, then checking here is a huge theoretical disaster as he's being given infinite odds to chase an ace or trips and beat us. If we bet and he raises, he has the king and we can dump easily. Anything without a king is essentially dead if we bet at all.

** When people think you're always bluffing, they pay you off.

** 77 on the button. CO raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls

Three-betting here gives up a lot of the advantages of the pocket pair. It cuts down on our implied odds, it cuts down on the number of players in the pot. Our equity isn't strong enough for this to be a value bet against any reasonable range.

The postflop value of our hand is gone here.

The play may be +EV, but its more +EV to call.

** 88 in the BB. SB limps, Hero raises, SB calls

Flop: A44tt - SB checks, Hero bets $11 into $15, Villain raises to $40, Hero calls.

Bad. We have significant equity problems here. Even if Villain doesn't have the ace (and there's a fair chance he doesn't) we have equity issues against most of his range. A lot of his pocket pairs are ahead of us. A flush draw with one over is racing, with two overs is ahead of us. A lot of turn cards force us to shut down (overcards, hearts).

Our equity is either racing or we're drawing to two outs. For this to balance, nearly all of his range has to be bad flush draws. Get out.

Our bet here was to collect dead money. We got raised. We can't legitimately continue.

** Short stackers make their money by stealing the blinds and getting you to call them lightly when they have a tight range. They shove tightly and raise lightly. To beat a pro short stacker, 3-bet lightly and call shoves tightly.

Notes: Omakase #5

2010-05-16T17:15:00.001-07:00

Omakase #5
-----

Replayer w/ Vanessa

-----

Hand #1 - BB w/ Q8o at 400NL

Villain is loose-passive

Preflop: Button limps, SB (20xBB) completes, Hero checks

((ME: our hand isn't strong enough to do much with right now. Raising could very easily result in the SB deciding to push over us, which we don't want. Sit back, see if we can hit a flop solidly, and if not just wait for the next hand.))

Flop: 9c6c3c ($12): SB checks, Hero checks, button checks

((ME: We have a weak flush draw and a couple of backdoor straights that aren't even necessarilly good. Going away if shown any kind of strength, particularly from the SB.))

Turn: 7d ($12): SB checks, Hero bets $12, loose-passive button calls, SB folds

((ME: our equity just improved against most ranges, but it's still hard to say what cards can come on the turn that are genuinely good for us. T8 and 54 are certainly possible holdings for our Villains, as is a made flush that's being slowplayed. Taking a stab here if checked to isn't terrible as a semi-bluff, but if we get raised we can't afford to continue.))

What's Villain's range? Just about any pair or draw on this board. Still a huge number of possibilities.

River: 6d ($36): Hero bets $60

((ME: let this one run too far before I applied my own commentary. All of our draws just missed and its obvious that they did. I don't like this play - the Villain is loose-passive, which means he isn't that likely to fold a made hand here. Missed draws will chuck it to a weaker bet. Our play is a bluff and it LOOKS like a bluff.))

What is Villain likely to fold here? A seven, maybe. The idea is that Villain's range isn't particularly strong and he may decide to look us up on a normal sized bet.

This is more likely to succeed against a regular, who isn't automatically mashing the call button with any made hand.

-----

Hand #2 - 5c3c in the SB

4-bet bluffing from OOP against a massive multitabler, called by the 3-betting button.

Villain's range is either a monster or good pocket pairs unless we're doing this a lot. We're almost never facing AK against a decent player. He should be giving us credit for a very big hand here.

Flop A97 - checked through
Turn 7 - checked through
River Q - Hero shoves

The play here is shoving the flop, as we're representing a monster and Villain's range is very unlikely to have AA/99/AK. We have to take advantage of this image immediately or it goes away.

-----

Hand #3 - KhQc in the CO

Preflop: Hero opens to $12, button calls, SB squeezes to $52, Hero calls, CO folds

((ME: Against a typical player at my limits, the range for this play is going to be strong - big pocket pairs, AK/AQ. More aggressive players may do this with hands like AJs or random trash. Still, my hand is in bad shape far more often than not, so I fold here. My only sure way of having a solid hand is to his an unlikely straight. If I were suited, I'd give more consideration to calling due to having that many more ways of hitting the flop.))

Read on the SB is he's a TAG regular, but likes to 3-bet from the SB. He's had 32 opportunities to 3-bet from the SB and has done so ~20% of the time. This sample is a bit small, but Hero opts to call because of an admittedly thin stat.

Flop: JdJc2d ($120): Villain bets $76, Hero pushes $350

((ME: What's Villain's range here? Pretty much what I listed above. How does he perceive our range? As we called, most likely middle pocket pairs and big, suited broadway. This board is exceedingly dry and the pot big, so our options are limited: check/fold, as we have nothing, or push over the likely c-bet and play up that we hold AJs. Assuming a c-bet, we'll be offering 820:250, or a little over 3:1 odds. If he has anything, he calls us because of the possibility of our bluffing.))

Villain's raise size is such that he's getting 2:1. If he has a flush draw, a jack, or a pair, he's calling. We're risking 350 to win 200 - we need to win 60-70% of the time.

((What outs do we have?

v AA/KK - backdoor straight only = 1
v QQ - 3 kings, backdoor straight = 4
v AJ/KJ/QJ - backdoor straight only = 1
v TT/99 - pairing my card = 6
v flush draw = 4 at most

If we're behind and get called, our equity is effectively nothing. As he's calling with at least half of his range, this is a -EV bluff))

-----

Hand #4 - QhJc in the BB

Preflop - Button bets to $12, Hero raises to $44, Villain calls

((ME: Would clearly be better if suited. The problem with making this play with this hand is Villain's range if we're called very likely has us dominated. Obviously we fold to four bets, but his range here includes AQ/AJ/KQs and lots of medium pocket pairs - possibly as high as JJ.))

This is a bit of a trap hand. Unless he's calling 3-bets extremely wide, we're in trouble. Villain is TAG and folds 60% v 3-bets.

Flop - Kh8s6d ($90): Hero bets $52, Villain calls

((ME: Completely bone dry flop. It's easy for us to represent the king here, but a lot of his range includes a king as well. Are we really pushing a medium pocket pair out for a single bet? No. If we're going to c-bet here, we need to expect to fire multiple barrels and get away if we get reraised.))

((ME: What does that line mean? Villain's range is still fairly wide - he has something here, but how strong he is is up for debate. Medium-big pocket pairs, AK/KQ))

Turn: Ts ($194): Hero bets $96, Villain calls

((ME: We have some equity now, with a likely 7-8 outs, but this also improve a hand that might have folded to a turn barrel in TT. How is Villain likely to respond to a turn barrel?

AK/KQ/TT/88 - push
QQ/JJ - uncertain, given we're able to three-bet with QJo, these probably push as well
99 and under - fold

We're getting shoved on by a decent portion of his range, and if we shut down we're likely facing a bet we can't call. Shut down, or make a small lead as if to set up a river shove.))

There's always the possibility of a float or something like 98s that came along for the ride. Those will mostly go away on that turn. This time he doesn't, and the bet looks like we're setting up for the river shove. Could he have been drawing? If an AQs/AJs floated on the flop, maybe its calling with the flush draw.

River - 4d ($386): Hero checks, Villain checks and shows T9s

((ME: I don't put much stock in the draw concept here - his hand is a modest made hand or strong one being slowplayed - but then, even his floats have us beaten here. The only choice is to shove or to check/fold. Kx isn't going away, sets aren't going away, and that's a good portion of his range.))

"The one or three situation" - You either need to fire one barrel or three barrel here. The portion of the Villain's range that is weak improved on the turn, so he's calling bets with the expectation of a big payday if he hits. When none of the draws come home, you can bet him off of the pot.

Here, you need to make the bet. There's a lot of hands that will call the turn, fold the river - and there's a lot more people following the C/C/F line. This turn bet doesn't tell us whether he has a king.

-----

Hand #5 - AcTh UTG 5-handed (200xBB deep)

Preflop: Hero opens to $16, MP raises to $48, Hero 4-bets to $136

Villain is an insane LAG

Why would you shove here 100xBB deep? It prevents Villain from rebluffing. Villain's three-bet range here has a lot of crap in it - and he's going to have to call with a lot of it to not be exploited.

Okay, NOW I'm tilted

2010-05-15T18:15:00.000-07:00

AA < QJ - all in on the flop as a 4:1 favorite
AA < Q9 - all in on the flop as a 4:1 favorite

Stepping away for the night. Going to watch a video later.

Back to center

2010-05-15T13:08:00.001-07:00

I'm suffering from FPS right now. That doesn't work. Settle down.

Analysis: AK with nut flush draw facing a check raise on a paired flop

2010-05-15T12:11:00.000-07:00

Preflop - AhKh in MP

Hero raises to .30, unknown in BB calls

Flop - Jh7h7d - BB checks, Hero bets .50, Villain raises to 1.40

Villain's range is wide. He could be on any pocket pair, a jack, or a seven and be ahead of us. He could be on a lot of overcard hands that have missed and will fold to any bet.

Can we force out a hand better than ours? Most pocket pairs are going to peel here. We aren't folding out a hand that actually hit this board for a single bet. I'm 47% against a range including JJ-22, JT-AJ, Th9hs, 9h8h, and 97/87/76/75, so my equity is such that a raise here is +EV.

Is it the best play? We aren't getting paid by worse hands and we aren't folding out many better. If we check behind, we can potentially induce bluffs. The problem with this strategy is that when we hit, it looks like we've hit, and when we hit and come out firing, it's obvious. The c-bet looks like the obvious and logical strategy.

When we get check-raised on this flop, how do we continue? Villain isn't doing this with the true monsters (JJ/77) in all likelihood. So his range includes bluffs, sevens, and some good jacks along with possible combo draws (though those tend to be played passively).

We're being offered 2.6:.9, so about 3:1 pot odds with very good implied odds. We can call here even against a seven and we're better off if he holds a jack or a combo draw that's really hurting against our specific hand. Raising is only going to push out his bluffing hands - and we're not too worried about those.

Our proper play is to call here and control the pot unless a heart hits. Let our position work for us while we're drawing.

I'm not tilting

2010-05-13T18:40:00.000-07:00

Pretty nasty session today.

Once again, through patience, some good running, and a firm dedication to thinking plays through, I'd managed to get my bankroll back to the point where I could take shots at 25NL.

And once again, I can't win races for the life of me. 99 v Q9? Nope. AK v JT? Forget it. 66 v 33? Fat chance. AK v KQ? Dead on the flop.

And yet, I'm remarkably emotionally calm.

Yes, I did make one very stupid play that cost me most of a stack, ignoring all the signs that my opponent had a very strong hand that he was never going to fold. I simply walked away and remonstrated myself for not paying enough attention to what was happening.

Yes, there's a big downward spike on my graph. But you know what? I got the money in good four times out of five. I can't do any better than that.

My mindset is getting better. My thought processes are improving, and it's very visible in my profit graph. I'm on the right path.

Notes: +EVolution of poker #7

2010-05-13T13:13:00.001-07:00

+EVolution of a Poker Player #7

-----

Flop Play and Turn/River Examples

-----

** Facing a C-bet **

-- Made hand

- Slowplaying -

Generally best in position, as it ensures that you're getting bets in on every street. When OOP, you're often best off leading or check-raising

Slowplay most often with effectively invulnerable hands

Best against players who bet aggressively. If they aren't going to continue to bet/bluff on the turn, you aren't gaining anything.

- Moderate hands

Typically, you don't want to raise unless you have a good read. When you do raise, you either want to have a hand that you're happy going all in with or a weak hand that you have no problem ditching.

Relative strength might make moderate hands very strong. Dry boards without draws tend to favor medium strength made hands, while draw heavy boards offer your opponent lots of outs

What is Villain's turn c-bet frequency? If he's a one barrel wonder, you can float with a wider range. If he's the type that will fire relentlessly you can't expect to be passive and successful with medium strength.

Do you have added value? i.e. Are you invulnerable if you're ahead, do you have extra outs either through overcards or backdoors?

-- Draws

- Drawing to the nuts

Be more likely to call the c-bet. If you're drawing to a nut hand, the implied odds are very valuable

Nut draws often have some showdown value. With showdown value, you don't want to get blown off your hand.

- Weaker draws

It's okay to raise with a weaker draw as a semi-bluff. Very weak draws can be bet and gotten away from

- Combo draws are quite good to get all in with, as you have excellent equity. You can raise here hoping to either take it down or get all in.

- Play tighter OOP, as usual

-- Raising a C-bet

- READS: Is his c-betting strategy exploitable?

If he's c-betting too often, it's easy to take advantage of. You can simply raise or float the c-bet and take it down most of the time.

If he isn't c-betting enough, you can just give respect to his bets and take down any pots that he doesn't bet at.

- What is his c-bet range?

Does he have any chance of actually having hit this flop?

Is this the type of player that checks when he hits the flop, or does he always bet?

When a thinking player is c-betting on a dry flop, it's a wide range. When a thinking player is c-betting on a wet flop, it's a narrow range.

- How strong is your hand?

You should be raising with the hands that you want to get a lot of money in, i.e. those hands that have a lot of relative strength on this board.

If your hand is weak enough that you can't call, you can opt to raise as a bluff or a semibluff. The strongest hands that you can't call with are good candidates for a bluff.

You should not be raising with medium relative strength hands that are primarilly valuable if Villain does not have the hand he's representing.

*If you don't want to be called, then you probably shouldn't be raising*
*If you're going to puke if you're 3 bet, you probably shouldn't be raising*

- Texture

Is he c-betting a lot? If he is, then you he's c-betting a lot of air on dry boards and you can take it away from him. Unfortunately, you aren't representing much here, either. Thinking players will play back at you more often here with floats and small 3-bets.

On action flops, raising the c-bet is less likely to get a fold as Villain is more likely to actually have a hand that can continue. Raises on this type of flop look very strong as a result.

In-between boards are good places to raise a c-bet. Look for flops that you can legitimately hit with a fair amount of your range, but is unlikely to have hit Villain's range solidly. - Flops such as Q76tt, K97r, 972tt

- Position

Raising in position can be more effective and can be done more liberally.

Check/raising often creates a tough turn decision when you're called. If you do this with a draw, you're often not going to have enough left behind on the turn to push Villain off of a top pair hand. If you have a vulnerable top pair, then it becomes difficult in the face of a bad card. As a result, the C/R is best reserved for very strong or very weak hands.

Generally speaking, you want to raise hands that will have an easier, more profitable turn decision: Big hands, weak hands that can become big, bluffs. Hands that can lead to a bad turn spot include moderate made hands with little room for improvement (pocket pairs), and strong but not premium draws (flush draws and OESDs)

-- Floating

- Calling with nothing with the intention of taking the pot down later with a bluff

- This can easily devolve into FPS

- Outs are nice (but then it technically isn't a float)

- You want to make this type of play against predictable opponents - one barrel wonders and fit-or-fold types with high flop c-bet percentages

- Use sparingly

- Typically best on dry boards, as Villain is that much less likely to have hit.

** Against a missed c-bet **

- Frequently bet IP

- Would this Villain auto-bet with missed hands? His moderate made hands?

- Is Villain tight or straightforward?

-----

** Playing in 3-bet pots **

- Similar guidelines to normal pots, but your S/P ratio will almost always be very low.

- Ranges are typically much more defined.

Tight players calling a 3-bet usually have medium-high pocket pairs or AJ/AQ type hands

- Lots of money in the pot = high incentive to steal

- Bets are typically a smaller portion of the pot - try to imagine the S/P situation on the turn. You want to be able to push all in on the turn comfortably if you're on the lead.

-- Playing as the 3-bettor

- Villain's range is tighter than usual, includes a lot of pocket pairs and strong suited broadway.

- Your range is also tighter than usual, and includes most premiums.

- You can bet smaller, so your c-bet doesn't need to succeed as often to be profitable

- Small S/P ratios make top pair stronger and much harder to fold

- ALWAYS know how you will respond to a raise

-- Playing as the caller

- Low S/P ratio, so you can push with weaker hands

- This includes some weaker draws if you have any kind of fold equity

- There is less wiggle room in position. Even if you make a small raise of a c-bet, you'll be committed with anything decent after raising. Floating is problematic as you don't have much ammunition and it will be expensive to make the play.

- When stacks are deeper, there is more wiggle room for bluffing IP

----------

** Turn and River play **

** Turn play

-- What does opponent's range look like?

Compare when Villain calls on:
- K83r
- T98

- K83r - He's likely to have a reasonable number of pocket pairs, any king or eight, and possibly AT/AJ types of hands that we can push away. We can barrel a lot on the turn. However, against tighter opponents, he's much more likely to have a king that he's not going to walk away from.

- T98 - He's not calling light here. We're either running into strong top pairs or pair+draw hands, so multiple barrels is unlikely to be a successful strategy.

-- What about When he c-bets those flops?

- K83r - Most aggressive players will c-bet almost 100% of their range here.
- T98 - Scary board, so he's going to get rid of some of his complete air and weak made hands. His c-bets are correspondingly stronger

-- How does the turn connect with his range?

- A on called K83? A lot of Villain's range is pocket pairs and weak top pairs. He's not going to be happy with this card.
- J on called T98? This connects very well with his hand, likely making a straight or two pair.

- Overcards are typically the best two barrel cards. As top pair is usually the strongest part of his calling range, an overcard weakens the top of his range

- Bad two barrel cards are those that connect strongly with the board, particularly those that complete existing draws.

-- Watch out for awkward S/P ratios

- Anticipate what the stacks will be on later streets
- You should never be betting half of your stack

- 1.75 S/P ratio is awkward

If you make a standard bet ($175 stacks, $100 pot) then you are committed ($100 stacks, $250 pot).

If you're bluffing and bet less, you are offering great odds to chase. If you're betting for value, you're allowing draws the odds they need to come along profitably.

- 3 S/P ratio isn't awkward

$300 stacks, $100 pot - bet $75 = $225 stacks, $250 pot - perfect shove on the next street

-- How many more bets do you want going in?

If one, then the decision is to bet the turn or to check and let Villain bet the river

If two, then there is always the risk that you will be check-raised and three bets may be forced to see a showdown

- If you choose to bet, what purpose does your bet have?

Can you get Villain to fold better hands?
Can you get Villain to raise or call with worse hands?
Is there a need to protect my hand? (vulnerable, action board, big pot)

** River Play

- Hand reading is (almost) everything

If your opponent will call a bet with a worse hand 50% of the time, you have a profitable bet.

- Bet aggressively for value, esp. against bad players

----------

** HAND EXAMPLES **

----------

** AhJs in the SB, 3-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to $1, BB (60xBB) calls

((ME: Immediate thoughts are that I'm going to have a hard time getting away from top pair on the flop. AK/AQ are the only hands that dominate me and Villain's range is likely going to be fairly wide against this range, including a lot of lesser aces. We lack a big S/P ratio.))

Flop: JdTd9h ($2):: Hero bets $1.50, Villain calls

((ME: Top pair, extremely wet flop. Any diamond, K/Q/8/7 is bad for me. Worse, I'm OOP. My relative strength isn't all that great. Checking here and then leading on a safe turn seems a valid option, as does c-betting - though I'm not happy if I get raised.))

We want to protect our hand and we're likely best NOW. So I'm overanalyzing the hand. Unless we're up against KQ or JT/J9/T9, we're good right now.

Villain's call eliminates vulnerable monsters from his range. He's not likely on 2 pair or a set... maybe a straight, but that's less likely.

Turn: 5h ($5):: Hero bets $4, Villain calls

How does this connect with Villian's range, which is mostly make up of pair+draw hands? It didn't. We can continue to bet strongly here, as we expect Villain to call us with a lot of worse hands. If he was behind, he's still behind now.

River: 5c ($13):: Hero bets $8, Villain calls with QTo for a pair + OESD on the flop

All of the draws missed and we've already decided that his made hands are almost all worse than ours. Villain has $8 left behind, put it in the middle.

** Ks8h on the button, 6-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .50, BB calls

BB is recognized as 2+2 player, has some ability, TAGgy 22/17 stats. The minraise is designed to get maximum value from a steal

Flop: 8s3d2d ($1.10):: Villain checks, Hero bets $.75, Villain calls

((ME: We have a vulnerable top pair on a dry board. Villain's range is very wide here, given that he got to see the flop extremely cheaply. Still, this is a difficult board to hit and we want to charge him to see another card.))

The nice thing about having a hand like this is that our current relative value is very high. If Villain is better now, he's either on a set or an overpair.

Turn: 2h ($2.60):: Villain checks, Hero bets $1.75, Villain calls

((ME: best card in the deck. Completed nothing and took away some of the few combinations that are ahead of us. Villain is still unlikely to believe that we have much. Continue firing for value.))

River: 5s ($6.10):: Villain checks, Hero bets $4, Villain folds

Does Villain have any portion of his range that's beating us here? Very little. Standard river bet. There's no reason to bluff here as the vast majority of his range is 77/66/44 and possibly some flush draws. A draw would likely have bet at some point, as we're simply not likely to have much from his perspective on previous streets.

** AsKc UTG, 6-handed 10NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .40, BB calls

Standard

Flop: 9h3s2d ($0.85): Villain checks, Hero bets .60, Villain calls

Standard c-bet spot. Villain is very unlikely to have hit this flop and we're ahead of anything that isn't a pocket pair. Throw in position and we have an easy decision.

((ME: When Villain calls, this could very well be a bad float OOP, but also includes a significant number of PPs in his range))

Turn: Ks ($2.05): Villain checks, Hero bets $1.50, Villain calls

Hard to get away from this even if Villain were to C/R as all we're losing to is a set. We're extremely confident of our hand in this spot.

River: 3h ($5.05): Villain bets $3.20, Hero pushes for $10, Villain folds

Another excellent card for us. Villain's range for beating us just declined. His lead here can't profit against most of our range if he doesn't have a monster. Given how little he has left behind, we can't be afraid of his stack and if he has any kind of a pair he almost has to call given the huge pot odds he's being offered.

** QsTh in the CO, 4-handed 10NL

Preflop: hero raises to .30, BB calls

Standard

Flop: Qh8h5h ($0.65): Villain checks, Hero bets .40, Villain calls

((ME: Top pair + flush draw, but against players at this level we're probably not good against strong aggression when the flush comes in. Still, we should have good equity here most of the time. A c-bet should be standard.))

We can check here. If we get C/R here, it's a puke situation, but outside of a monster on Villain's part we're pretty invulnerable. Betting is standard.

((ME: On Villain's call, he likely has something - a queen, a decent pocket pair, or a heart of his own. This isn't a spot where we're looking to build a monster pot.))

Turn: Kc ($1.45): Villain checks, Hero checks

Not much reason to bet here. We stand a good chance of having the best hand here, but we won't if a lot of bets are going in here. Checking behind also prevents us from being put in the spot of having to fold to a checkraise)

We want one bet to go in here - easiest way is to check the turn and call the river.

River: Ts ($1.45): Villain bets .70, Hero raises to $2.40, Villain calls with AcQc.

This is a situation where if he had a flush, he'd be betting big here - or at some point earlier in the hand. He likely has a weaker made hand.

** As3c in the BB, 6-handed 10NL

Preflop: MP limps, button limps, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: AcKh4c ($.40): SB checks, Hero bets .30, MP calls, button calls, SB folds

In this spot, there's a lot of players that will call this kind of a flop with a king, assuming that the lead from the harmless BB is an attempt to take down the pot. We may also get called by a gutshot. Reads may change this decision.

Turn: 4s ($1.30): Hero bets $1, MP calls, button folds

Good card for us, as it eliminates kickers from the equation. AK/KK/AA are very unlikely on the action, so we're only losing to 4x. With two callers, it's very likely someone has a flush draw and will pay

River: 6s ($3.30): Hero bets $1.50, Villain calls w/ KcQd

What is Villain's range here? Mostly flush draws, kings, and aces. We beat the kings, split with the aces other than A4/A6 and beat the flush draws. Depending on how we weight his draws/made hands determines whether or not we bet here or try to induce a bluff.

At these limits, focus more on getting value from your hand than inducing bluffs

** JTs in the CO, 5-handed 25NL

Preflop: UTG raises to .85, Hero calls

Good speculative hand in position. Standard.

Flop: QsTc8c ($2.05): Villain bets $1.55, Hero calls

((ME: extremely wet flop. We have second pair and a gutshot, which is a fair amount of equity with as many as 9 outs against top pair and blockers against some of his potential straights. Is semibluffing here an option?))

This Villain is a tighter player, and is less likely to c-bet with his air. Our hand isn't likely to be best right now, but can easily improve.

Turn: Qc ($5.15): Villain checks, Hero bets $2.75, Villain calls

(ME: Pairing the queen and completing the flush, then Villain shuts down? If he's perceiving our range as strong and his hand isn't, his shutting down makes sense. We could have a queen, we could have the flush - if he had the flush, he'd likely continue betting to get maximum value from a Qx in our hand))

This is the type of board/hand where we can't throw away a genuinely strong hand - we don't have a genuinely strong hand. If Villain is behind us, he can't call but actually has a lot of outs against us

Bet size is too small.

If we had a club, betting here would be worse as our hand is less vulnerable and we wouldn't want to be checkraised.

Old saying -- "Check with outs"

River: 9s ($10.65): Villain checks, Hero bets $4.40, Villain calls and shows AcAs

Villain's hand is most likely a missed flush draw with a pair - KcQh, KcKh... so don't make a big bet when his hand isn't likely strong.

** Ts9h in the CO, 5-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .75, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: 9s7c6h ($2.25): SB bets .25, BB calls, Hero raises to $1.75, SB folds, BB calls

((ME: A reasonably wet board. No flush draws, but a lot of middling cards that connect together. Hero has a gutshot and top pair, which should provide enough to c-bet. Calls will likely be a lot of 98/87 hands.))
((ME: Okay, scratch that - the lovely minbetdonk makes its presence known. SB is a 60xBB stack))

When someone minbets, you can raise them a lot. They're almost always weak.

If BB had a strong hand, he'd likely raise himself. He's not on a monster range.

If SB 3-bets and is aggro, expect to get it in on the turn.

BB range after the call? 87/T7 type hands

Turn: Kd ($6): BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, BB calls

The king changes nothing. Very little of his range on the flop action includes a king.

River: 4h ($13.50): BB checks, Hero bets $7, Villain folds

If we had the best hand on the flop, we almost certainly do now. The bet is thin, but the sort that you need to make against this kind of player for a good win rate.

** AdQh on the button, 6-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .75, BB calls

Flop: Ks9c5c ($1.60): BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, Villain calls

((ME: Looks like a fairly standard c-bet spot. Villain will likely call with any king, PPs 66+, and club draws. There's very little outside of a handful of gutshots beyond that, though something like QcJc has some nice combo draw equity.))

Villain is only 40xBB deep. The flop is so good for a c-bet that even this isn't a deterrent.

Turn: Jh ($4.10): BB checks, Hero checks

((ME: We just picked up a few more outs if we're behind, but we're not likely to push Villain off of any kind of hand here. If checked to, check behind and hope for an A/T river))

This coordinates very well with the board, making a second barrel a poor choice. It hits Villain's range solidly

River: Tc ($4.10): Villian bets $1, Hero pushes, Villain calls and shows Kc7d

We got there. Did he? When someone bets very small on the river it's vanishingly likely that he has a flush here. We beat everything else. He could easily be on Qx, so shove.

** TcTd in MP, 6-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero bets .85, BB calls

Flop: 7c3d2d ($1.80): BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls

((ME: Standard. Villain's range includes flush draws, pairs, and some overcards. Quick note, he's a short stacker at about 75xBB))

Turn: Ad ($4.80): BB checks, Hero checks

((ME: Ugh. First instinct - but not entirely justified as that cuts down on a lot of his flush possibilities. Axdd covered a lot of that range. Sure, he could be on KdQd or something similar, but he's unlikely to have paired the ace and we've likely just improved our overall equity.))

If we don't have the Td, we're more likely to bet in this spot, as we're much more vulnerable. Here, even though we likely have the best hand, we only want one more bet to go in and if we bet here and get fired at on the river... or checkraised... puke time.

River: As ($4.80): BB checks, Hero bets $3, Villain calls and shows Th3h

Villain is that much less likely to have an ace now. If he has a real hand, he's almost certain to bet it out himself, so our tens are good most of the time. Give him the chance to make a bad call. He does.

** JsJh UTG, 5-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .85, button calls, BB calls

Flop: Qd6s5c ($2.65): BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, button folds, BB calls

((ME: looks like a standard c-bet - board is unlikely to hit anyone, and if there's no queen I'm a huge favorite to have the best hand. What's Villain's range? Any Q, pocket pairs 77-JJ, 87...))

Checking the board is reasonable, as we're only afraid of A/K turns. We're also not happy if we get raised.

Turn: 5h ($6.15): BB checks, Hero checks

We only want one bet going in. This is the easiest way to achieve that.

River: 9c ($6.15): Villain bets $1, Hero calls, Villain shows J4dd

No reason to raise here, as if Villain doesn't have a legitimate hand he can't call. We have a bluff catcher, catch the bluff.

** Jc9c in MP, 6-handed 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .85, BB calls

Flop: Ah8c8d ($1.80): BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls

Superdry board. What does Villain have when he calls? An A or 8, maybe a pocket pair. We'd shut down after this, except...

Turn: Tc ($4.30): BB checks, Hero checks

Picked up a huge draw. We can't get him to fold any kind of a made hand, but if we hit our draw we're getting paid on the river. Checking here means we get paid when we hit and give up nothing when we miss.

River: Js ($4.30): BB checks, Hero checks, Villain shows AsQc

Not much to value bet here. Most of Villain's range beats us, and those that don't are unlikely to call a river bet.

** AhTd on the button, 4-handed 25NL

Preflop: CO limps, Hero raises to $1, SB calls, CO calls

Flop: Qd9d3d ($3.25): SB checks, CO bets .25, Hero bets $2.25, SB folds, CO calls

Usually, the minbet is a weak hand or draw. How often is Villain calling on this bet? Often he's a loose player with the minbet, and he thinks he could possibly be good if his hand comes home - or yours doesn't.

Remember, you can make a -EV play now if it will lead to a +EV play on a later street

Turn: 4c ($7.75): CO checks, Hero bets $4.75, Villain folds

If Villain doesn't have the flush or a queen, he can't really call here.

** 6c5d in the BB, 25NL

Preflop: SB limps, Hero checks

Flop: Jd9c6s ($.50): SB checks, Hero bets .50, Villain calls

Villain is loose/passive, we have a piece we bet he calls

Turn: 5s ($1.50): SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB raises to $3.25, Hero folds

((ME: Baluga theorem?))

Villain is unlikely to be bluffing here. Most people are indifferent toward limped pots. Hero has bottom two, if we're behind then we have few outs.

** 7d7c UTG, 25NL

Preflop: Hero raises to .85, CO, button and SB all call

Flop: 7h4s2d ($3.65): SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets $2.30, SB calls, Hero calls, CO folds

CO and SB are half stacks, button is 160xBB. We've crushed the flop. If we bet, there's very little that can call us and we look very strong betting into two players. Don't chase people out.

That, and the TAG on the button is likely to bet. C/R is just too strong.

Turn: 6s ($10.55): SB checks, Hero bets $5, Button calls, SB calls

Button is unlikely to bluff again without incentive. Betting weak here doesn't look like a whole lot of anything. The pot is big, the board is getting dangerous...

What does it mean when the SB calls? It's annoying, as the pot is now protected - there's going to be a showdown, so there's no benefit to bluffing.

River: Ad ($25.55): SB checks, Hero bets $13.50, Button calls, SB folds. Button shows AQ on the turn float.

Always think about what you're representing. If we bet the flop, we're too strong. If we bet the turn strong, we look too strong. Try to represent what you don't have.

Notes: +EVolution of poker #6

2010-05-12T14:31:00.000-07:00

+EVolution of a poker player #6

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Post-preflop and the Flop

- Getting mentally prepared for the flop
- Flop situation variables
- Specific flop situations

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** Post-preflop (Pre-postflop?) **

- Be prepared for different flops and situations
- KNOW THE STACK SIZES

Make it a compulsion!

- Reads/History? How can we exploit this player?

Fit/fold villains - bet a lot of flops
Auto-bettor - check to him when you have a good hand
Calls flops, needs a hand on the turn - fire zero or two barrels

- The hand reading process begins

Did he raise or call preflop?
Realize that he might be attempting to read you!

(UTG raise - mostly pocket pairs or two big cards)
(BTN raise - top 50% of hands, premiums less likely)
(TAG with a high 3-bet%, call raise from SB - pairs, suited broadway, much less AA-JJ, AK)
(Weak calls in position - pairs, decent suited, Ax)

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** Flop Situation Variables **

- Dry flop v Action flop (board texture)
- Absolute v Relative strength of a hand
- In position v Out of position
- Deep stack v Shallow stacks
- Multiway v HU

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** Flop Textures **

- First question: What is the nuts? The wetter the flop, the worse sets and lower look.

As7h4d - set of aces
AsKhQd - JT for the straight
AsKsQs - JsTs for the straight flush
AsAdKh - quad aces

- Are draws possible?

Are there reasonable OESDs?
Flush draws?

- Is there a big high card?

- Two broadway?

These tend to be more action flops.

- Gap size between high cards

The tighter they mesh, the more likely they've his someone hard

- Card removal

The harder you've hit the flop, the less likely your opponent has.

- Villain's range v the flop

* Examples:

As7h2d - About as dry as possible. Only gutshot draws available. TPTK is very strong.

9h9d4s - How likely is Villain to have a nine here? Extremely unlikely. Fours are rarer. Very dry.

9d7d2s - Getting wetter. Flush draws are available as well as some straight draws and a lot of gutshots. Two pair isn't unimaginable.

QhJdJd - Paired, but threatening because it's very much in the wheelhouse for raises and calls. Very good board for bluffing, because you can represent a lot, but still dry. Someone without a hand has a hard time continuing. Aggression is credible.

Ad7d2d - Mono boards are quite wet. Flushes and flush draws are very possible. Two pair hands and less lose a good amount of value.

9s7h5h - Straight and flush draws are possible. This is the type of board that you want to be on the lead with or actually have a hand.

QsTh8h - Wetter than the previous one, because the higher cards will hit more of those hands that people play. Lots of combo draws.

JdTdxx - Any time JTs hits the board, it's very coordinated by definition. Don't blindly stab.

Td8d7d - Huge number of combo draws here. Even two pair has poor equity in the face of a lot of action.

-----

** Absolute v Relative strength **

- Absolute - the literal value of your hand
- Relative - to what?

The board
Your opponent's range - is 2pr possible for him? A low straight?
Stacks - 50BB deep, TPTK is very strong and you want money in. 200BB deep, you're not so eaget to get all in with TPTK

- This is a big difference between +EV and -EV players

Bad players think in terms of absolute value. Good players in terms of relative value.

- How strong is KsQs on these flops?

QhJh9h - not very. Lots of draws, you opponent has tons of equity with a LOT of different hands. When you're ahead, you're barely ahead. When behind, you may even be drawing dead.

KhJh9d - Better, but we're not happy getting a full stack in here. Against short stacker, get it in, but again we're barely ahead/way behind.

Kd2s2h - Significantly stronger than the other two. We're only behind AK/KK/22, which is a tiny percentage of his range. Better - we're likely to get paid on a street or two by medium pocket pairs.

- Does your opponent's range include two pair on this board? Overpairs? Sets or better? Big draws?

Kd7d4h - Flush draws and sets, but very few genuinely big hands are in his range. Unless he was aggro preflop, he's not likely on a monster here.

KsQdTd - A lot of hands, both calling and raising, hit this flop very hard. If you get raised here, you're a lot more likely to be in trouble.

- Stacks: TP loses value with deeper stacks, while nut draws rise in value.

-----

** Position **

- Position literally increases the value of your hands at the expense of the OOP players, so you can and should play looser in position.

- Dead money gravitates toward position

- You can bet smaller w/ position

Villain's implied odds are worse from OOP.
Villains will fold more to bets in general

- Play more straightforward OOP, more tricky/bluffy IP

- Play with finesse/smaller pot OOP

-----

** Stack sizes **

- As you get deeper, the later bets get bigger. When the bets get bigger, you're less likely to be best with top pair hands.

- Deeper stacks = more ammunition. You can make more bluffs and more multistreet plays.

- As your effective stack changes, your commitment threshold changes.

- Stack depth v S/P ratio

- When you raise small preflop, you create a higher S/P ratio - this is advantageous when you have position, and disadvantageous when you're OOP. It is also advantageous to raise large with big cards and smaller with implied odds hands. This is also the reason why big cards are better against short stacks.

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** HU v Multiway **

- More players = higher likelihood that someone has hit the flop

- Which in turn means that bluffs are less effective multiway, and that bets and raises are usually stronger.

- Bluffing can still be effective three ways, not so much four ways (though this does not eliminate semi-bluffing)

-----

** On the flop **

- First question to ask: Am I committed to this hand? - i.e. Am I looking to get my stack in right now?

If yes, get your stack into the pot in the most efficient manner
If no, avoid bloating the pot with medium strength hands

- Bet sizing: "standard" is 3/4 pot. This is highly variable

Bigger bet if: OOP, multiway, and/or action flop. Betting for value against fish.
Smaller bet if: IP, HU, dry flops.

- Your bets should have intentions (most of the time)

Get a better hand to fold (bluff)
Get a worse hand to call or raise (value)

- Balance - you don't want to make bets that polarize your range too widely, though this is less needed at the microstakes.

If you always slowplay your big hands, the regulars will know how to exploit you. Ditto with never slowplaying or any given play.

** Should I be committed? **

((Turn the corner series))

- Draws

Typically (against an aggressive player)

With 50xBB stacks in a raised pot (S/P ratio is 6-7) - you are strong enough to get all in with flush draws, open end straight draws, and strong gutshots (includes overs or backdoors)

With 100xBB stacks in a raised pot (S/P ratio is 13-14) - you are strong enough to get all in with a combo draw - 2 card straight draw + flush draw, pair + flush draw, OESD + 2 card flush draw

With 100xBB stacks in a raised pot - A-high or K-high flush draw may be enough, depending on fold equity and overcard outs

With 150xBB stacks in a raised pot, you need a premium draw to get all in, and you're often best off playing for implied odds.

Call with your stronger draws (flush draw, OESD on rainbow flop) if you are not committed or if you have good implied odds (drawing to the nuts, fishy Villain, disguised draws). DON'T raise strong draws if you're not committed and will have to fold to a reraise.

- Made hands

Commitment is more difficult and depends on your relative strength and board texture

Estimate your equity when you're ahead and when you're behind all in. Avoid slightly ahead/way behind commitment.

Reads and experience are key.

-----

** Specific Flop Situations **

-- Limped pots

- Typically come with the highest S/P ratios

- You are effectively deep, so many bets/raises must go in before stacks go in, so the ranges are stronger when the money goes in

- Players are generally apathetic toward small pots

- Thus:

Be cautious, especially when raised
Pick up pots on dry flops or when others seem disinterested
Overbet on the flop to build a pot when you flop a strong hand

-- Raised pots - Option to C-bet

- Check stats/history against this player. Don't trust stats unless you have a large sample size (1k+ hands).

- C-bets don't have to work often to be profitable:

Half pot - 33%
2/3s pot - 40%
3/4s pot - 43%
full pot - 50%
(Also, remember that a good bluff on the turn lowers these numbers further)

- Consider your perceived range. Does Villain think you may have hit this flop?

- Will you be able to fire the turn often?

- Is Villain too shallow for a c-bet to be viable?

- When you have a made hand or good draw

How vulnerable is your hand? (Compare QQ on K72 to 66 on 732)
How will you feel if you get raised in this spot (texture/relative strength) - if this is a bad situation, then you likely do not want to bet - ALWAYS consider how you will respond if you are raised
Position

- When you have nothing

Board texture
Position
Reads

- The problem with c-betting too much is that your range is automatically weighted to the weak side. This means you are exploitable by someone floating you or raising you. C-betting with weaker made hands that cannot stand a raise often results in a -EV spot against aggressive players.

-- Board texture as a factor in c-betting

- C-bet more on dry flops - Villain is less likely to have hit these flops, but smarter players will play back more often on them
- C-bet less on action flops - Villain is unlikely to go away
- Know what you can represent on any given board

-- Position as a factor in c-betting

- Position + Initiative is lethal. It is very difficult to play against a player with both of these to his advantage, so you will often be able to muscle the pot past the flop
- OOP villain must play tighter
- C/R is less effective than raising IP, so c-bets made IP will be raised less often
- You can't take a free card OOP
- Check more of your made hands OOP to avoid getting raised unless you cannot C/C with the hand you have
- Bet a stronger range OOP

-- Reads as a factor in c-betting

- If you have no read, use board texture, stack sizes, position, and relative value to decide on your play

- READ: Villain calls and raises a lot of c-bets - COUNTER: c-bet air less often, check made hands that can't take the heat
- READ: Villain calls a lot, raises rarely - COUNTER: Fire 0 or 2 barrels most often, as the flop bet alone will be -EV without the second bluff.
- READ: Villain rarely calls, often raises - COUNTER: Check made hands/draws that can't take heat; Polarize your range and value TP-big kicker more
- READ: Villain calls/raises rarely (fit or fold) - C-bet relentlessly, except sometimes with your best hands

- Does he bet a lot when checked to?

Yes? Trap check more, turn some made hands into bluff catchers. Assume no free cards OOP.

-- When our C-bet is raised

- Look at the Raise c-bet % stat (15+% is a lot)
- C/R is usually a much stronger hand than an IP raise
- Hand reading top: Players often slowplay on dry flop, rarely on action flops
- Don't give minraises much respect (except from very passive players)
- Typical 3x raise (TAGs)

Are you committed? If so, get your stack in efficiently
Call much less OOP
If you think you should call, how many awful turn cards are there? How often will Villain bluff the turn? Will you push over a bet on a blank? Is there one pot sized bet left or more if you call?

Notes: +EVolution of poker #5

2010-05-11T12:34:00.000-07:00

+EVolution of a Poker Player #5

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Why math?
Why now? - i.e. why before we begin looking at postflop?

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Universal math concepts:

** Pot odds **

- There's always money in the pot in poker, so you're always being offered pot odds when you are facing a bet. Conversely, every bet you make offers your opponent pot odds and you are getting pot odds on every bet you make.

- Pot odds are typically expressed in terms of a reward:risk ratio
(more accurately - current reward:current risk - Pot odds excludes future bets)

- Examples -

Betting $50 into a $100 pot offers 150:50 (3:1) to your opponents
A pure bluff of $100 into a $100 pot gives you 1:1 pot odds

- What does the ratio mean?

If the ratio is A:B, then you need to win B times out of A+B for the pot odds to be in your favor - i.e. 3:1 means you need to win once out of four tries, 1:1 means you need to win once out of two tries.

- Why do we bet and raise relative to the pot?

The goal of a bet is to offer a given price to your opponent. That price is determined by pot size and bet size.

A $100 bet into a $1000 dollar pot (giving 11:1) is very different than a $100 bet into a $10 pot (giving 11:10)

- Why pot-sized bets?

Pot sized bets offer 2:1 odds. This makes for a good point of reference to determine how much you should actually bet.

** Pot equity **

- The percentage of the time you would win if everyone was all-in.

- This is less important in NL than limit. Limit is based heavilly around your equity as you cannot manipulate the pot odds as effectively.

- Pot equity is critical at lower S/P ratios. You will get all in more frequently and sooner.

- When S/P ratios are high, there is less immediate danger of getting all in on any given street, and the potential value of your hand (implied odds) on future streets becomes more important.

** Pot odds v Pot equity **

- The price you're being offered v the current value of your hand

- Current value can differ from equity - especially with deep stacks.

If you're drawing on the flop, you might be priced out on the turn
If you foresee a +EV bluff, your hand might be more valuable
If you're drawing to a disguised draw, you have extra value

- Only future value is missing - Future value = Implied odds (or reverse implied odds if negative)

- High future value hands: pocket pairs preflop, nut flush draw using both cards
- Low/negative future value: bluffing on the turn with a hand that can never win a showdown or a hopeless multi-street bluff

- We need to compare the current value + future value to the pot odds offered at every decision.

** Expected Value **

- The net result per trial if you made the same decision an infinite number of times

- When Pot equity + Future value > Pot odds, you are +EV

- Example:

Villain bets $30 into a $50 pot. We have 40% equity v his bet.

.4(80) + .6(-30) = 32 - 18 = +$14 EV to call

** Effective Odds **

- Closing the action - if you put in a call, there can be no further action.
- If you are not closing the action, your pot odds may be worse than they appear.
- The more likely a raise behind you, the better odds you need to be offered to make a call.

** Combinations **

Pocket pairs - 6 combos
Pocket pairs, 1 removed - 3 combos
Pocket pairs, 2 removed - 1 combo
Unpaired XY - 16 combos (multiply for removals)

** Using Combinations **

- Example: Villain's range is AK, AA-QQ. How many paired?

16 AK, 6 each AA/KK/QQ = 16/34 = 52% paired

- Continued example: We hold 55 on AK5 flop, how often are we ahead?

Ahead v 9xAK, 6xQQ
Behind v 3xAA, 3xKK
15/21 = ahead 71%

-----

** Hand Examples **

-- Picking off a river bluff

Board: Ac Jc 8c 5h 4c
Our hand: Ah 8h
Action: We've bet flop and turn against an unpredictable/loose Villain
River: Villain bets half pot into us, offering 3:1 odds (25%+ to call)

We have a bluff catcher here - Villain will almost always have the flush or a worse hand.

There are nine clus left in the deck - what are the odds he has a club?
** 1-chances neither card is a club
** 1- (card A not club * card B not club)
** 1 - ((45-9)/45)((44-9)/44)
** = 36.4% that he does have a club

Random hand will have a flush on a 4-flush board about 36% if we have no card of the suit (33% is we have one of the suit).

*Other Considerations

Is Villain likely skewed toward having a club? Yes - he's more likely to call with one than without.

Compare boards:
Ah Jc 8c 5c 4c
Ac Jc 8c 5h 4c
Villain is more likley to have the flush on the first board, as he'd always stick around w/ top pair + nut flush draw

Villain is unlikely to value bet a small club. Anything else is likely to be played as a bluff catcher. If he only bets one of the top three clubs, a random hand here has a top 3 club only 13% of the time.

Villain needs to have the flush 75% of the time for a call to be wrong. He's very unlikely to.

-- Bluffing the river

Board: AK873, no flush possible
Our hand: 42o (nut low)
Should we bluff $40 all in into a $50 pot? How often does it need to work?

Pot odds - 50:40 = 40/90 = 44.44% that we need Villain to fold

-- Bluffing the turn

Board: AK87, no flush
Our hand: 42o (nut low)
Should we bluff $40 all in into a $50 pot if he folds 40% of the time?

We have zero equity if drawing dead.

Need 44.44% folds, so -EV

EV = .4(50) + .6(-40) = -4

-- Bluffing the turn and the river

Board: AK87, no flush
Our hand: 42o (nut low)
Effective stacks: $140, pot $50
Can a profitable river bluff add EV to the turn bet?

Should we bluff $40 into $50 if he folds 40% AND we will bet $100 all in into $130 on a 2,4,5,6,7,9 river (22/46) - when we bluff the river he will fold 60%

Turn:
V folds 40% - +50
V raises 10% - -40
V calls 50% -
River not a bluff card (52.2%)(50%) = 26.1% - -40
River bluff, V folds (.6)(.5)(.478) = 14.3% - +90
River bluff, V calls (.4)(.5)(.478) = 9.6% - -140

EV = (.4)(50) + (.1)(-4) + (.261)(-40) + (.143)(90) + (.096)(-140)
EV = $5.09

-- Semi-bluffing the turn

Board: AK87r
Our hand: 65 - OESD, 8 outs to the nuts
Should we semi-bluff $40 all in to $50 if he still folds 40%?

V folds (.4)(50)
V calls, we hit (.6)(.174)(90)
V calls, we miss (.6)(.826)(-40)

EV = 20 + 9.40 - 19.83 = +$9.57

EV when called is -$17.38... but with no outs, that portion of the equation is -$40.

-- Pot-sized bet v Raise and Pot odds

PSB/PSR both offer 2:1 odds to the caller
PSB = 1:1 pot odds - pure bluff needs to win 50% to be profitable

PSR v $30 bet into $50 pot - PSR $140
80:140 = 4:7 - pure bluff needs to win 63.6%

** What do these examples tell us about bluffing? **

Bluffs with outs work much better than those without - the more Villain calls, the more true this is

If you don't have many outs, you must be confident that he will fold often

A -EV bluff can be made +EV if you foresee a future +EV bluff

Bluffs either need lots of folds, or some future value

A bluff raise needs significantly more folds than a bluff bet

Notes: +EVolution of poker #4

2010-05-09T13:22:00.001-07:00

+EVolution of a Poker Player #4

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Preflop part 2

- Assessing the current situation
- Preflop hand analysis

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** The Current Situation **

Considerations

- Opponent's range

* Is he tight or loose?
* Does he make this play with high cards? Suited connectors? Pairs?

- Look left

* Always consider the types of players still act. Are they likely to squeeze - 3-bet - cold 4-bet - call behind?

* Can I get more fish involved by taking a specific line?

- Go out of your way to get bad players involved

- Hand type v Situation type

* Is our hand a good multiway hand?
* Does it need position?
* Will it play well in a reraised pot? A big pot against multiple players?
* Does it fit well with the effective stack sizes?

** What is the stack to pot ratio (Effective depth)

* This tells us the number of bets left in the pot
* Top pair type hands prefer smaller S/P ratios
* Implied odds hands prefer higher S/P ratios

* Examples -

$7.50 stacks, $10 pot = 1 bet
$30 stacks, $10 pot = 2 bets (bet $7.50 called = $22.50 stacks, $25 pot)
$75 stacks, $10 pot = 3 bets ($67.50 in $25 pot after one bet, $17.50 bet called = $50 pot with $50 stacks)

* Play Example

KcQh on KhJc9d flop

$7.50 w/ $10 pot - easy all in
$30 w/ $10 pot - bet $7.50 and call a shove. If called, all in on most turns
$75 w/ $10 pot - bet $7.50, if oppt raises you have $67.50 left - can you go all in here? If you bet flop and turn and you're called twice, are you ever ahead on the river?

- Do we need to tighten up or loosen up?

* Fish already in the pot - loosen up, we can expect to win more postflop
* Fish in the blinds - loosen up, they tend to play more often, calling with a wide range of hands
* Passive or tight players behind you (especially the button) - loosen up, you're more likely to have position or at least won't have a dangerous player there
* 3-bettors/Squeezers/LAGs still to act - tighten up, as you can't stand action with weaker hands
* Aggressive players still to act - tighten up, particularly if they have position on you

** Situation comparison - Examples using 43s

Example one - Hero is CO, Button is 43/23 and aggressive, making this a very unfavorable situation. This Villain will see a lot of flops and force us to make a hand.

Example two - Hero is CO, Button is 24/21, SB is 15/15, BB is 45/0 and passive. With a fish and a tight player behind us, our hand is very playable. We can expect to see flops with the fishy BB frequently, and steal when he chooses to fold on a reasonably regular basis.

-----

** Opening the pot **

- Rarely open limp

- 4x UTG, 3.5x MP, 3x CO, 2.5x Button

- Look left

- UTG: Pairs, bigger suited broadway, AK-AJ, KQ, bigger suited connectors
- MP: + Axs, more suited connectors, more broadway
- CO: + most suited connectors, suited gappers, any two broadway, better suited cards (K8s)
- Button: + Top 40-45% hands
- SB: somewhere between CO/Button range

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** After limpers **

- Play more hands against loose/bad limpers

- TAGs rarely limp

- Rarely limp w/ 50xBB+ stack limpers. Sometimes you will need to overlimp v small stacks to control the pot.

- Raise about 5xBB after one limper, add .5-1xBB for each extra limper

- Raise less v one short stacked limper - Stack/Pot ratios

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** Against a raise **

- Callling raises

* Who else has entered the pot? Are there limpers? Callers?

* Look left!

* Do we have position? This is very powerful against a raise.

* Relative position - Can we trap extra bets? Do we get to see how other people are reacting to the bettors flop action?

* Rarely call from the SB except in multiway pots. You have terrible position.

* Gap concept and NLHE - You don't want to play weak hands against raises

- Three betting

* Usually 3-bet 3x in position, pot+1xBB out of position

* With deep stacks (150xBB+), three bet more in position to cut down on the S/P ratio and less when out of position because there is more money behind with which Villain can outplay you

* How often will Villain call vs all-in/fold

Good players when out of position will typically 4-bet or fold

Ex: QJo is weak if Villain calls, but strong if he's going to play all-in/fold as our decision is easy

* Which weaker hands can we 3-bet with?

The strongest hands that you can't otherwise call with (Ex: K8s)

* Squeezing

Puts people in all-in/fold positions most of the time
People are often suspicious of the move

* Big cards play well in 3-bet pots (small S/P ratio, floppability)

Your situation is clear on the flop

* Domination

When Villain is likely to call, it is best not to have QJ-type hands that are likley to be dominated

* AJs, KQs, KJs are versatile. You have high card value and some draws available. They can be used to 3-bet or call, depending on the situation.

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Facing a 3-bet

- Calling

* Who 3-bet you?

Bad player? Tighten up unless you have a read that he does this a lot. Bad players don't 3-bet often.

Aggressive player? Open up more.

* Did you raise originally?

If you didn't, you need a big hand to get involved.

* Position - you can call more often against 3-bets from the blinds

Opponents c-bet less when OOP = You have more of a chance to pick up pots

You get to see what your opponent does first

You can control the size of the pot

* There will be a smaller S/P ratio when you call

Think in terms of preflop equity and floppability

Ideally, you want to do this with big, suited cards

- 4-betting

* Usually, you do this with your strong hands to get more money in preflop (AA-QQ, AK)

* Try to 4-bet to <30% of the original stacks - less if this is a squeeze spot

>30% commits you to the pot.

* Bluffing and rebluffing

* When not to 4-bet AK

Against a tight 3-bettor
Against an UTG raiser
Sometimes, it is ok to call or even fold to a 3-bet

-----

** AA-QQ **

- Strong Multiway or HU
- The money in preflop, the better, especially all in
- Try to avoid high S/P ratio on the flop
- When do we flat call?

* Likely squeezer behind us
* Letting the fish into the pot

** JJ-TT **

- Similar to AA-QQ
- Less effective multiway
- Less effective on the turn/river - easier for others to make better than a one pair hand by that point
- Worst case scenario - seeing a flop 4-way
- Don't 3-bet these hands w/o a clear plan

Tend to 3-bet them OOP to lower the S/P ratio

- Usually call vs 3-bet
- When do we not call 3-bets? - Against players who are 3-betting aggressively. 4-bet in this spot

** 99-88 **

- HU or multiway, 3-4 way pot is less favorable
- Aim for a very low or very high S/P ratio
- You can 3-bet to get the pot HU or to punish loose raisers
- Can go any direction against a 3-bet.

Fold OOP or against extremely tight 3-bettors
Call IP
4-bet against aggro monkeys

** 77-66 **

- Frequently playable even against a raise, but don't overplay them
- Generally fold vs 3-bets

** 55-22 **

- Very little inherent showdown value unless you hit your set
- Use discretion in calling raises

Multiway
In position
Deep stacks
Bad players

- 3-betting - these make good hands for expanding your 3-bet range when you can't call
- Fold vs most 3-bets

** AK **

- AKs >>> AKo
- Excellent preflop equity, you can get a lot of money in preflop to reduce the P/S ratio
- You have blockers when getting all in preflop
- Does best against a small number of Villains - HU or 3-way
- Plays best with the lead

You don't want to call for 6 outs that might not be good
If you bet and get called, you still get to see the turn
You can't take down the pot by calling

** AQo **

- Similar to AK, but significantly worse due to the possibility of domination
- Plays poorly multiway
- Usually worth 3-betting

Plays well with the lead
A/Q blockers
AK usually 4-bets, meaning there is less postflop domination possibilities

** AQs/AJs/KQs and other suited broadway **

- These are very strong hands preflop
- Excellent HU (high cards) or multiway (big flushes, nut straights), deep stacks or shallow.
- ATs/KJs are the next tier down
- QJs/JTs not as strong, but better multiway due to combo draw possibilities
- KTs/QTs are the weakest of the suited broadway
- Good for 3-betting and calling, depending on the situation at the table
- Against a 3-bet, usually call AQs/AJs/KQs

** Offsuit broadway **

- Best raised to get HU or to steal blinds
- Nowhere near as strong as suited broadway in multiway hands
- Positionally dependant
- Better with short stacks, small S/P ratios
- AJo/KQo can call raises in position, occassionally 3-bet
- ATo/KJo generally don't call raises, can 3-bet

** Suited connectors/gappers **

- J9s > 65s - High card value is worth more than a slight gap
- Metagame benefits - Playing these hands means you can potentially hit any flop. You can't always be put on big cards when you raise.
- You miss a lot of flops, and often flop a mediocre holding
- Often tough decisions - position is critical
- Your hand develops on the turn/river, so better with the betting lead
- A lot of the value on these hands comes from combo draws

** Suited Aces **

- Much, much, much stronger than offsuit
- Good both HU and multiway
- Cooler potential - making a huge hand when Villain is slightly worse - play very well with very deep stacks
- A9s-A8s are good against raises
- A7s-A6s are weak due to the lack of top pair ability and straight ability
- A5-A2s are stronger than they seem due to wheel potential

** Offsuit aces and other trash **

- Most of these are useful only for stealing and restealing
- Axo is trash except HU or with very small S/P ratios
- Kxo and Qxo are even worse
- Kxs/Qxs are steal hands, better than Axo
- Offsuit connectors are trash (98o)

Notes: +Evolution of poker #3

2010-05-08T11:01:00.000-07:00

+EVolution of a Poker Player #3

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Pre-preflop play

- Finding the right table
- Picking the right seat

Preflop play

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** PRE-PREFLOP PLAY **

- First possible mistake?

Sitting at a table where you're going to be a losing player

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Judging an Opponent

- Preflop play

Typical VPIP/PFR numbers - prefer looser players, less aggro players

- The golf analogy

Poor preflop play can be made up for by strong postflop play. Most of the money goes in on later streets.

- The flaw of table VP$IP

It's an averaged number. The table with a 15 VPIP and a 35 VPIP player is better than one with two 25 VPIP table.

** It is important to have a bad player at the table **

- Postflop indicators

It's best to have players that are going to chase with weak hands - people who are willing to put money in the pot with the worst of it.

Less postflop aggression is good.

- ** Table selection is a skill **

You can create an edge via your ability at table selection

- Multitabling

Don't get overwhelmed. No more than six while you're learning.

- What makes a good table?

A couple of bad players, or one very bad player.
TAGs aren't inherently a problem for a table.

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Seat selection

- You want to have position on the players who are going to dump money to you.

- The seat on your right is where you want the fish

That's who you'll win the most money from, while the player on your left is the one who has it best against you.

- Tight on your left, loose on your right. Passive on your left, aggressive on your right.

- Bad players to have on your left:

Loose-aggressive
Light 3-bettors and squeezers

- You have more information against players who are to your right, allowing you to make better decisions against them.

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** PREFLOP PLAY **

- General Concepts
- Qualities of preflop cards
- Evaluating specific hands
- Preflop situations
- Hand Examples

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Tight and Aggressive

- VPIP 18-25%

Fewer makes it clear when you have a strong hand, making it easy to play against you. More means you're playing a lot of trash that you'll lose money with.

- PFR 14-20%

You want the lead going into the flop, allowing you to represent a strong hand on most flops. Typically, there should be a 3-5% gap between VPIP/PFR

- The Gap Concept

You need a better hand to call a raise than you would need to raise yourself.

This also means that the value of your hand is variable - it changes depending on the action at the table.

- Initiative

Having the betting lead. Being tight-aggressive gives this to you most of the time. This disguises your hand and puts you in control of the action much of the time.

- Bigger pots with (mostly) quality hands

You're raising with stronger hands, which means bigger pots
You're selective with your hands, so you're playing stronger hands

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Preflop Domination

- Having another hand drawing to 3 or fewer outs:

AQ v QJ (72.3%)
JJ v AJ (68.5%)
JJ v 99 (81.6%)
JJ v T9 (84.8%)
JJ v A9 (71.2%)

- Dominated hands have reverse implied odds - they can hit top pair and still be losing when money goes in postflop.

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Suitedness

- There is significantly more value to hands that are suited

Why?

- You have implied odds

Flushes are difficult to beat.

- You flop more strong draws, often on flops that you would otherwise have missed.

- You have the potential for combo draws.

- There is a greater potential for backdoor draws.

- Pot equity is the bottom line!

There are more flops which give you significant equity, allowing you to play them more aggressively.

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Example:

Preflop raiser with 25% PFR, Hero calls in position

Flop: Jh, 9d, 6c

Consider if you have: JcTc, Jc7h, Tc9c

In terms of absolute value, JT = J7 > T9
In terms of ability to improve, JT = T9 > J7

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Hand Qualities

- Multiway hands

One pair hands are much more likely to win at showdown against one player as opposed to four. Therefore,

Multiway play favors -

those hands that can make a big hand (sets or better) by the river, and
those hands that can flop enough equity to continue postflop

Thus -

Suited hands
Connectors
Pairs
i.e. hands with strong implied odds.

Notes: Yin and Yang #2

2010-05-05T10:59:00.001-07:00

Yin and Yang #2

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Hand #1 - AJo on the button - ABC against the fish leading on the turn.

Preflop: Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls

Read on SB is that he's a fish/rec player, he's about half a stack. Lots of minbetting and mincheckraising.

Flop: K54tt ($3.50): SB checks, Hero checks

Should we c-bet here? This flop doesn't hit his range very hard at all. He's got a lot of air in this spot that he could be happy to chase with. Mutliple barrels here isn't really a good option, and if he's playing back at us we don't have any idea what he's doing.

We have no reason to bet here, it doesn't clear our situation, we can't be sure of value or bluff. So no c-bet.

Turn: 8 ($3.50): Villain bets $2, Hero calls.

When we check back the flop, he still has a lot of air (which would have folded if we had bet the flop). Players of this sort will often take a stab on the turn with any two train tickets, assuming we've missed. So we call with A-high excellent kicker.

River: Q ($7.50): Villain checks, Hero checks, Villain shows A9o

Villain is unlikely to fold anything that beats us and is unlikely to call with worse. Just go to showdown.

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Hand #2 - ATo in the CO -

Preflop: Hero opens to $1.50, SB calls, BB calls

Blinds are fishy, recreational players.

Flop: QQ5tt ($4.50): SB checks, BB bets $1.50, Hero calls, SB folds.

((ME: Did he actually hit that? Unlikely. He could be on the flush draw or a pocket pair, neither of which is going away to a raise. If we want to represent the queen in his head, are we betting here? No. Just call in position and wait on the turn.))

Just calling could be the best option here, because it doesn't make sense for him to lead out with any kind of strength in this spot. He could be doing this with a weak pair, a draw, or complete air.

Of further note, there's the rec player in the SB. What if we 3bet and get called by the SB? We've put in extra money and are never good. Calling behind here puts the SB in a position where he has to announce his strength compared to our hand. Even if the BB were donking and weak, our call indicates some strength on our part.

Turn: 2 ($7.50): BB bets $2, Hero calls.

((ME: That's a brick. Villain's bets are weak, so betting out to take this down has potential - a raise here will look like a queen. Go for the deep play? It's possible, but if a diamond doesn't peel off, he may call us with a fairly weak hand, hoping we were on the diamond draw. I like taking it down here.))

Overthinking. We can't rep too much here either. Just call again and see the river.

River: K ($11.50): SB bets $5, Hero...?

((ME: He's bet three streets, I likely fold here, but...))

We're getting a good price, and a lot of his range is made up of missed draws and air. We want to see what he has here as well, as this is a likely bet sizing tell.

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Hand #3 - 22 on the button - exploiting ABC, sensing the overset

Preflop: UTG raises to $1.50, MP call, Hero calls

UTG is unknown, MP is ABC regular

((ME: easy call on the button w/ a pocket pair and two already in the pot. If the blinds are fish, that much better.))

Flop: K52r ($5.25): UTG checks, MP bets $3.75, Hero calls, UTG folds.

((ME: Unknown is unknown. He could simply have missed the flop or be going for a C/C with something like JJ, or a big check raise w/ AK or KK. What does the MP have? A king, most likely. This isn't really a great spot for him to bet without a hand, even with the preflop raiser checking to him. Call in position. The flop is bone dry and we want them to pick up a piece of something.))

Turn: 8 ($12.75): MP bets $9.75, Hero calls.

((ME: That's a brick. Again, I have no reason to pump up the pot right now as we're at about a pot bet behind when we call and Villain seems quite willing to try and value bet me here. Keep my strength a secret and call.))

River: A ($32.25): MP bets $14, Hero calls. Villain shows 55.

Do we want to get the money in here? Think about Villain's range:

He called preflop, led when checked to on the flop, led the turn, and is leading the river small.

Does he have AK? He'd three-bet that preflop, most likely.
He's not afraid of the ace, but bet twice before it came.
Can we put Villain 100% on a set? No, he could have Ax here, but not very often. If he has Kx, he's folding to a shove.

Right now, he has the nuts or a hand that folds to a shove, so just call.

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Hand #4 - 88 in MP - playing against the weak donk

Preflop: Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls

BB is a recreational player, very small sample.

Flop: AQ6tt ($3.75): BB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4, Villain calls

If we call here, how is Villain going to react on a blank? Players of this kind like to lead weak, and when you don't raise, he assumes you're weak and continues to fire.

If we raise here, Villain may fold if he has air, but if he has something he'll call and likely check on the turn, allowing us to control the pot better.

Turn: 4 ($11.75): BB checks, Hero checks.

We raised with the intention of checking here and keeping the pot smaller if the Villain missed his possible draw. The draw didn't come home, and the check indicates a weak hand. Just check behind.

River: A ($11.75): BB bets $11.75, Hero call. Villain shows 76o

Villain wouldn't bet an ace this big and would likely bet it on the turn. Call.

-----

Hand #5 - JTs in MP -

Preflop: Hero bets $1.75, SB calls

Not many reads on the SB, seems a regular.

Flop: A72tt - we have flush draw ($4): SB bets $2.50, Hero raises to $6, Villain clicks to $11, Hero pushes, Villain folds.

What does raising accomplish for us here? We have a stronger hand than the previous one, Villain is a stronger player. If he has any kind of a strong hand, why isn't he just letting us bet? His lead doesn't make any sense.

Our bet size is deliberately small to make him think that our bet is simply to make him fold his hand. We have no history with this player, however he's likely to figure that when we make that smallish reraise that he can represent a powerhouse by coming over the top of us.

Of course, we have decent equity even against a set and fold equity against anything lesser in this spot. Coming all in over the top puts all the pressure on Villain.

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Hand #6 - TT in the BB

Preflop: button raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $5.50, Villain bets $13, Hero shoves, Villain folds.

From that raise sizing, we can assume some experience on the part of the button. Known read - experienced, aggro reg.

Do we three bet or call here? Before we three bet, we have to decide whether we're getting all in if he comes over the top. Check his 4-bet % (in this case, 26%, which is high - so we're likely willing to shove over the top of him).

Key - MAKE THE PLAN BEFORE YOU THREE BET.

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Hand #7 - KQ in the BB

Preflop: button bets $1.50, Hero raises to $5.50

((ME: folding and reraising are both valid choices here. Given the previous hand was discussion three-betting and shoving, lets analyze it from that perspective.

If we three bet here and are four bet, are we ever happy getting it in w/ KQo? No. Most of his range dominates us, while the TT is doing reasonably well if Villain turns over AK/AQ. So if we get four bet in this spot and shove, we're doing it almost entirely as a bluff. He simply isn't turning over JJ/TT all that often.

So our better option here is simply to call behind and see a flop with a reasonably strong hand. If we three-bet and are raised, we bail))

Hero 3-bets. Villain's fold to 3-bet is 60%, and he opts to call here rather than come over the top.

Flop: A93tt ($11.25): Hero bets $6, Villain calls.

((ME: Right of first bluff here. What's Villain calling with? A good number of Ax hands, but also medium pairs.))

What hands are in his range for calling a three bet here. Pocket pairs higher than 99, suited broadway, AQ/AJ.

So we want to bet here and represent the ace. We don't have to make a big bet here, as Villain either hit or did not.

Turn: 6 ($23.25): Hero bets $11, Villain calls.

Villain was calling with a lot of middle pairs and his aces along with any flush draw. We'd be betting AK/AQ here, so something small. The plan here is to make the play that looks like we're trying to draw as much value as we can out of a medium pair on this board.

River: 8 ($45.25): Hero bets $27.50, Villain folds

Following through with the plan. Villain can't call without an ace here, because we obviously have an ace in this spot.

-----

Hand #8 - K9s in the SB

Preflop: CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.50

Similar reads - TAG reg. We're three betting to balance our range.

Flop: T92tt ($11.50): Hero bets $6, Villain calls

c-betting with second pair in this spot has to be correct. We're happy if Villain folds, but in this case he could easily have an overpair, a set, or a lot of draws. The call removes a lot of his medium strength hands like T9.

Turn: A ($23.50): Hero bets $11.5, Villain calls

If Villain had an overpair, he can't be happy with that card. What Ax does Villain have that called preflop and flop? AT. AK/AQ are likely 4-betting hands, AJ isn't sticking around on that board w/o the flush draw.

Again, we've set up the pot for an easy river bluff shove.

River: 3 ($46.50): Hero bets $30, Villain folds.

He can't be happy without an ace here, and most of his range doesn't include aces.

-----

Hand #9 - A4o in the BB

TAG palyer on the button

Preflop: Button opens to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.50, Villain calls

We can fold here, or three bet. There's nothing to be gained by calling.

Flop: AK6tt ($11.25): Hero bets $6, Villain raises to $12, Hero bets $50 all in, Villain calls w/ QJo. WTF.

Is Villain flatting KK or AK on the button to the three bet? Unlikely. But if we get it all in in this spot we're probably in trouble. The minreraise isn't a very good play on his part because he's going to run into better hands most of the time if he has a big ace.

So what does he have? His bet is almost always a bluff, so we push.

-----

Hand #10 - AKo on the button

Preflop: MP short stack limps, decent reg CO limps, Hero bets $2.75, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: T72r ($9): MP checks, CO bets $2, Hero folds (Villain shows 22)

This bet size on CO's part screams strength. He's bet small enough that if MP shoves over the top (likely) he can still reraise, trapping a couple of dollars in the pot.

-----

Hand #11 - 77 in the BB

Preflop: CO raises to $1.50, button calls, Hero calls.

CO is aggro reg

Flop: A66tt ($5.5): Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero calls

Peeling to see if Villain represents an A on the turn.

Turn: J ($11.5): Hero checks, CO bets $4.5, Hero calls

He's betting small - why? Either his hand is invulnerable (AA/66/A6) or he's on a draw giving himself odd or he's on air. Draws and bluffs outnumber nutted hands and we're getting huge odds to boot. Call.

River: Q ($20.50): Hero checks, Villain bets $16, Hero calls

What does Villain bet here? Nutted hands and bluffs. His AK/AQ/AJ hands play differently earlier in the hand. Again, his bluffs outnumber his made hands, and we want to see what he plays this way for future reference (specifically the tiny turn bet). Villain shows 45 for a pure bluff.

Notes: Yin and Yang #1

2010-05-05T02:22:00.000-07:00

Yin and Yang #1

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Inavacuyum / SnappieVouz

Microstakes - Using ABC and creative play at micros

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Hand #1 - Q6s on the button - ABC Triple barrel play

This is the type of hand you can open from the button first in until you're given a specific reason not to - i.e. a loose or aggressive player in the blinds, short stacks in the blinds, skilled players in the blinds

Preflop: Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls

Flop: 823r ($3.5): SB checks, Hero bets $2.45, Villain calls

((ME: First thought is a standard c-bet. May have to go two streets here to get Villain to fold.))

C-bet is standard on this dry of a flop. What does Villain have when he calls?

((ME: Calling range is pretty wide here. Overcards can certainly justify the play as we still don't have to have anything and make up a significant portion of his range. Any pocket pair can also justify the call))

Turn: K ($8.4): SB checks, Hero bets $5.90, Villain calls

((ME: This card is a bit more in our wheelhouse, but it's such an obvious continuation card against a player with any kind of handreading ability. Making the bet here will likely lead to betting on the river if we're called.))

Villain has already been identified as a thinking player. He also knows that this is an obvious continuing card, and is likely to call us with a wide range here. Key point - Villain isn't exceptionally strong here.

River: J ($20.20): SB checks, Hero bets $16, Villain folds

Why do we three barrel here? Villain's range is still the same as it was on the flop. There's a lot of overcards on the board that can kill his more marginal hands - small, medium pocket pairs go away as do any still unpaired hands.

-----

Hand #2 - 44 in the SB -

Preflop: Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls

BB is a tight TAG - 16/14

Flop: QQ2 ($3.50): Hero bets $2, Villain raises to $6, Hero reraises to $14, Villain folds

C-betting here is standard, but again the flop is so dry that Villain will likely peel. A lot of his range is pocket pairs and he's unlikely to give up on AJ-type hands in this spot.

What is Villain representing here? His play makes no sense. If he has a queen, he's going to call as he would with a fair number of weaker made hands. This is a fairly common play.

The reraise by Hero puts Villain to the test. We can still have a queen here, and Villain is unlikely to have a really strong hand. Tighter players aren't going to get into a chicken war with us.

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Hand #3 - 99 in the SB - Thinking beyond ABC

Preflop: UTG raises to $1.5, Hero calls.

UTG is a LAG thinking player who views Hero as spazzy and splashy.

Flop: 993 ($3.5): Hero checks, Villain bets $2, Hero raises to $6, Villain raises to $13.50, Hero bets $22, Villain shoves, Hero calls.

Value is going to be difficult to get in this spot. Can we take advantage of our image with this player?

((ME: This flop is so painfully dry and so unlikely to have hit us that we may be able to get called on a check-raise. A pocket pair is unlikely to go away so cheaply and will likely call. He may even come back over the top with an overpair or a bluff like AK.))

Calling here leaves our range fairly wide - it's the ABC play.

When he plays back at us, we click back to him with a minraise to make it look like a game of chicken.

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Hand #4 - KJo in the SB - ABC, picking off the bluff

Preflop: Hero bets $1.50, BB calls

BB is a known fish/casual player. Unlikely to be thinking about anything beyond the cards in his hand.

Flop: Q83r ($3): Hero bets $2, Villain calls

((ME: easy c-bet in this spot against this kind of player. He'll be calling with a queen or an eight, along with pocket pairs from 99-JJ - and probably from 44-77 as well. We're looking to pick up the pot cheaply in spite of having missed. One thing we don't have to worry about here is getting reraised. If it does happen, we're out of the pot in a flash.))

Standard.

Turn: 8 ($7): Hero checks, Villain checks.

Bad card for us. Villain isn't going to be worried about it, so we have no reason to continue betting.

River: Q (7): Hero checks, Villain bets $3.75, Hero calls. Villain shows 77.

((ME: We can't profit from betting here. Villain isn't folding even A-high on that board to any sane bet, and he could very easily hold the full house. Check it to showdown and hope the board just counterfeited his 66.))

Villain is unlikely to have a Q or 8 in this spot, as he likely would have bet the turn. We have no reason to suspect him of anything tricky. We have no reason to bluff, as we're not getting called by worse... but we could C/C with the intention of catching a bluff from weak hands trying to steal the pot.

Villain probably isn't betting A-high for fear of being caught in a trap. If he bets here, he either has the goods or he's on something worthless - and worthless makes up most of his range.

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Hand #5 - KK in the BB - Creative inducing?

Preflop: CO bets $1.50, button raises to $5, Hero calls, CO calls.

((ME: No matter what our action is here, we're representing a ton of strength. Cold 4-betting here pushes out most of the hands we beat while keeping in the AA/KK types. Call here and look to play a flop, or call an all in if the OP shoves.))

Give them a chance to make mistakes. Call.

Flop: 976r ($15.25): Hero checks, CO checks, button bets $20, Hero raises to $45 all in, CO calls, button calls - CO shows KTs, Button shows QQ

((ME: No immediate reason to lead out here. There are two active players behind and its very likely one of them is going to do the betting for us. The question is, what do they have and how do we want this hand to play out?

Button's range is mostly made up of overcards and big pocket pairs - TT+, AQ+. He hasn't hit this board in any meaningful sense, but may have value in the form of an overpair. CO's range is wider, extending down into more pocket pairs as he was given excellent odds to chase.

If we check, we can expect CO to check in most cases as well. We can then flat the button's likely bet and go to the turn well ahead of his range. Alternately, we can check-raise and take down a farily large pot.))

Button's bet of $20 effectively commits us to this pot and check-raising all in is the only option. Flatting and shoving the turn is pointless given the stack sizes.

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Hand #6 - AA on the button - Creative

Preflop: Hero raises to $1.25, SB raises to $4.25, Hero calls.

SB is 3-bet happy and the BB is a short stack, so we want to keep our opens small. ABC play here is to 4-bet, but this player will 3-bet a lot and therefore he's going to have to fold a lot when we come over the top. Also, he has a high C/R tendency in 3-bet pots - we're happy to let him make this mistake against us.

Flop: KQ3r ($9): SB checks, Hero bets $6, Villain bets $19, Hero shoves, Villain folds.

Make it look like a standard c-bet to encourage the C/R. When he makes the C/R, there's no reason to simply call - we can only do that with a made hand and he'll shut down with the weaker made hands he might have - AQ, for example. Pushing here may get him to spaz call, and failing that it'll push him out of the hand and we won't be at risk for being drawn out on.

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Hand #7 - QTs UTG - Creative river play against floater

Preflop: Hero raises to $1.75, MP calls, button calls

Reasonable hand to open from UTG. Unfortunately, we get called by two decent regs.

Flop: K98tt - we have flush draw ($6): Hero bets $4.50, button calls

((ME: Against two decent players I have a likely 12 outs to the best hand, but I'm unlikely to be good now. If I raise here, a king is likely to call and I'm going to be in trouble on the turn if I don't hit my hand as my equity will have fallen off sharply. I want to get as much money in the middle as I can now, particularly as my hand doesn't lose much equity if both of these players come along for the ride.

My first instinct is to check here, hoping for a KQ/KJ type hand to take the lead in this spot, then C/R big to apply pressure.))

Both of these guys are habitual floaters, so the plan is different. We lead, expecting to be called in at least one spot and planning to get them off weak hands later.

Turn: 9 ($15): Hero bets $11, Villain calls.

((ME: What could button have floated with? Quite a lot, actually. Ax of hearts, QJ/QT/JT, any K... The fact that the board paired isn't likely to have improved our hand and his opinion of our hand is either a draw or a king... continue to fire here, representing the made hand.))

While this isn't the best barrel card, consider what will happen if we check. If we C/C, any draw that hits is going to be obvious and we're not going to get paid. Leading here means that Villain isn't automatically going to put us on the hit draw.

River: 4, completing flush ($37): Hero checks, Villain bets $32 all in, Hero calls. Villain shows TT.

The ABC play here is to shove, but we know this guy loves to float. He's unlikely to have a hand strong enough to call the push. If we check the river, our hand looks weak - straight draw that missed or a weak king. Villain might turn a made hand into a bluff here if we check.

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Hand #8 - 65s in the SB - Creative play v a good LAG

Preflop: CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls

CO is crazy LAG, BB is inexperienced fish

Flop: 943tt ($3.50): Hero bets $2.50, Villain raises to $7.50, Hero reraises to $24, Villain folds

((ME: Plan for the hand... I know the guy in position is very aggro and I'm not strong enough to take a lot of pressure - at best I have 14 outs against overcards, but only 6 outs to the actual nuts. ABC would be to C/C and try to represent any of the draws that come home.))

Raising here is almost certainly going to lead to a reraise from Villain - which is a good thing. He's going to be doing that with a lot of his range, much of which can't stand up to the 4-bet. When we do wind up getting all in, we still have some reasonable equity.

When you're out of position, look for ways to seize the initiative.

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Hand #9 - KQs in the SB - Creative, exploting aggression

Preflop: Button raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.50, BB raises to $14, Hero shoves, Villain folds.

((ME: Coach says two options - either call and play our hand for its actual value as a suited broadway, or 3-bet against the possible steal raise))

Read on the button is that he's a standard reg. BB is overly aggressive. Given the nature of the BB, we expect a squeeze if we call and can't quite come back over the top.

The cold four bet makes things awkward. What does it look like we have? We just raised a likely steal raise - that doesn't require a big hand, just some nerve. This guy likes to take pots away given his percentages, so he doesn't have to have a monster here. If we reraise, we're representing the monster.

This is NOT the play you would make against someone without a specific read on their aggression.

-----

Hand #10 - A9o in the BB

Preflop: SB opens to $1.50, Hero calls.

Villain is listed as being a good, thinking player.

((ME: Thinking player will realize that we can raise him with a lot of hands here, so his range will be somewhat polarized - trash that can easily fold to a raise and hands that will do well against a raise. There's no reason to build a big pot here just yet and he doesn't have to have a hand. Call, keep our range very wide and take advantage of our position and a decent hand for HU.))

Villain likes to 4-bet when reraised after making a late-position raise, so calling is the preferred play.

Flop: 652tt ($3): Villain bets $2, Hero calls

((ME: pretty much an autoclick for him. That board hits nothing, and we can't represent anything by raising. This seems a perfectly reasonable float.))

Turn: 3 ($7): Villain bets $4, Hero raises to $12, Villain calls

((ME: neither one of us is representing much here. Do we have a four? Vanishingly unlikley. Once again, call.))

We can represent the four a bit more reasonably than I would think. Blind battle, so we could have 54, 64, A4 combinations. By betting on the turn, people are going to be thinking that we have a legitimate hand here.

What does the call mean? Overpairs, flush draws

River: K, completing flush ($31): Villain checks, Hero bets $12.50, Villain folds.

Pushing makes it look bluffy. The smaller bet looks to be for value. He can't really rebluff us here, so any shove leads to an immediate fold on our part.

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Hand #11 - T7s on the button - Creative floating

Preflop: CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls

CO is a decent regular at these stakes, most likely a winning player.

((ME: This could easily be a steal raise by the CO, so coming over the top isn't a bad option. We can fold in a hurry against a four bet, and if called we have position and a hand that isn't utterly hopeless. Obviously, just folding is ABC. Can we call? Seems the worst option of the three.))

More inclined to reraise in this spot against blinds that like to mash the squeeze button. We can call here and take the flop in position with a hand that can hit hard.

Flop: Q54r ($3.75): CO bets $2.50, Hero calls

((ME: Villain is a regular, so this bet on his part could be anything that he raised with preflop. What it likely isn't is a monster. Raising here doesn't represent anything - there's nothing to be gained by raising with a queen or a set. This is a good spot to float, intending to take it away on the turn or river.))

Floating works out for the reasons discussed earlier - there's no hand in which a raise makes sense, which makes the raise look bluffy.

Turn: 2 - hero now has flush draw ($8.75): CO bets $6, Hero raises to $16.50, Villain calls

Attacking here allows us to rep a lot more than we could on the flop. This is how "we would play" a big queen or a set, and there's also the threat looming of several draws.

What does Villain's range include? Any Q, JJ-TT, possibly some club draws.

River: J ($41.75): Villain checks, Hero bets $30 all in

What's Villain folding if we bet here? QT/Q9? Maybe. AQ/KQ? Maybe not.

We didn't have many hands that we could have called with on the flop that picked up a draw on a turn. Our hand looks like a made hand. If Villain is on a bluff catcher, he's under a lot of pressure

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Hand #12 - 99 in the BB

Preflop: UTG raises to $1.75, button calls, Hero calls

((ME: obviously not folding in this spot. Our hand is way too strong. If we squeeze, we are giving up a bunch of potential postflop value if we hit with a strong hand leading UTG and the short stack on the button likely to pay us off if he hits. Flat.))

Standard call.

UTG is loose-passive/bad. He's playing 44/21/0.8.

Flop: 732tt ($5.5): Hero bets $4, UTG calls, button folds

Make a plan for the hand. UTG is likely to check the flop. We don't want it to check around as there are a LOT of cards we don't want to see on the turn, and if UTG starts firing we can walk away. He isn't bluffing.

Turn: 3 ($13.5): Hero bets $8, UTG calls

((ME: What does Villain's call tell us? Not a whole lot. He's a passive player doing what passive players do. He could be on any pocket pair, any seven, any flush draw, and a lot of overcards. We're still well ahead of his range here, so continuing the aggression makes sense.))

The three is a blank. Bet again here for value.

River: 3 ($29.5): Hero bets $13, Villain folds.

((ME: There's $30 in the pot and Villain has just over a pot sized bet left behind. If we bet here and he raises, we're committed to calling with our boat, so any lead is effectively for $36.

Is Villain calling often enough when he's behind for this to be good? What's he calling with when we raise? Any pair, including any seven. The flush draws that missed are going away - he's not calling a river shove with A-high.

Can we get this passive of a player to bluff? Unlikely.))

Make the small bet to lure Villain in. He's not calling a big bet with mediocre hands.

Analysis: Villain 4-bets all in preflop

2010-05-03T03:48:00.000-07:00

Preflop all in analysis:

The percentages assume an even weighting, which isn't going to be accurate - some people will flat with monster hands in this spot, increasing the weighting to the lower end of the range. Bluffs will also appear, increasing the range with which we can call.

at 100xBB -

Villain raises UTG to 3.5xBB, Hero reraises MP to 12xBB, all fold to Villain who shoves.

What can we call with?

Pot odds offered: 113.5:88 = 1.29:1 - Hero must win 43.67%

Assign ranges to Villain:

KK+ - call only w/ AA
QQ+ - call only w/ KK+
QQ+, AK - KK+ call, QQ+AK borderline
JJ+, AK - QQ+ call, AK borderline
JJ+, AQ+ - QQ+ and AK call, JJ borderline
88+, AQ+ - TT+ and AK call, 99 borderline

Alter to 70xBB -

Pot odds: 83.5:58 = 1.44:1 - Hero must win 41%

Ranges:

KK+ - AA call
QQ+ - KK+ call
QQ+, AK - KK+ and AKs call, QQ+AKo borderline
JJ+, AK - QQ+ and AKs call, AKo borderline
JJ+, AQ+ - JJ+ and AK call, TT borderline
88+, AQ+ - 99+ and AK call, AQs+ borderline

Alter to 40xBB

Pot odds: 53.5:28 = 1.91:1 - Hero must win 34%

Ranges:

KK+ - AA call
QQ+ - KK+ and AKs call, AKo borderline
QQ+, AK - any pair and AK call, all other reasonable hands borderline
JJ+, AK - JJ+ and AK call, all other reasonable hands borderline
JJ+, AQ+ - any pair, AK, AQs call, all other reasonable hands borderline
88+, AQ+ - 55+, AJs+, AQo+ call, all other reasonable hands borderline

-----

Points of note:

As stacks sizes decrease, calling ranges increase do to the superior odds. When stacks are below 50xBB, you're likely calling a shove with nearly any hand. Thus, against short stacks, limit your three betting range to genuine value hands.

Against deep stacked and nittier players who are only going to four-bet with genuinely strong hands, we can counter by calling in position with medium strength hands rather than four-betting into a situation where we'll be forced to fold if he comes over the top of us. In this case, our 4-betting range should be a mix of strong hands and hands that can't justify calling in position but are unlikely to be dominated - the J8s of the world.

As Villain loosens, we can open our 3-bet range for value as well, as we can call more frequently even when he pushes.

Continue this analysis later, operating on the assumption of a min-4bet over our 3-bet to see what this does to us.

Notes: SSNL Disease #6

2010-05-01T07:20:00.000-07:00

SSNL Disease #6

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Why do talented players fail to advance beyond small stakes?

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#6 - Premature read formation

- When you see an action and immediately apply meaning to it without taking variance and ranges into account.

- a.k.al Leaping to Conclusions

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SYMPTOMS:

- Overreliance on early observations

The first time something happens can somehow be applied to your opponents entire game. Just because he doesn't 3-bet AK from the SB once doesn't mean he won't later. Just because he opens A3o UTG once doesn't mean he'll do it again later.

- Projection/assumption

Assuming that your oppenent will fit into your projected framework. "He's a TAG, so he'll behave this way"

Sometimes, substituting in "possibly correct" information for an unknown can make your logic worse

This can also conceal other weaknesses in your analysis

- Depending on too many assumptions

- Incomplete analysis and conclusions

You're doing things half-assed and spewing out a pseudo-logical conclusion

** Get better at recognizing how reliable information is **

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EARLY OBSERVATIONS

Remember: Everything is subject to variance!

- Pull back on your tendency to observe and conclude quickly

Check your sample sizes

- The more variables there are, the more randomness exists

The more competent your opponent is, the more factors he will take into consideration.

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PROJECTION/ASSUMPTION

The other players are not you. The other TAGs are not you.

- Preflop stats are not everything.

- Be aware of creeping assumptions on ranges, hand reading. Eliminate the phrase "I would do this, so..."

Don't extrapolate from your own game.

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ASSUMPTIONS BUILT ON ASSUMPTIONS

Too many assumptions = House of cards. If one falls out, the whole structure collapses.

While we are working in a situation that involves limited information, be sure to identify what assumptions we are working with.

- Focus on identifying the most important variable

- It's impossible to build a logic chain out of thin air.

- Avoid the cyclone of convoluted thinking

"Leveling yourself" - you get in the spot and you're not sure of what the important question is, so you keep spinning from question to question rather than choosing one.

Start from the ground and work your way up. Use your intuition.

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INCOMPETE ANALYSIS

- Identify as many "why" questions as possible
- Determine which of these is the operative question

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CAN YOU EVER MAKE AN IMMEDIATE ASSUMPTION?

Yes!

- Recognize unbalanced play

- Recognize extreme play

Look for plays that are far from the median:

Isolate a fish w/ 95s
Calling raises w/ K2o OOP and playing passively

- Recognize tendencies that exist independently

Ask the why questions

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FIXING THESE PROBLEMS

- Identify when you're projecting and your assumptions

- Remember - VARIANCE

- Turn off your HUD for the first 25-30 hands

- Always ask why

Notes: +EVolution of poker #2

2010-05-01T00:46:00.001-07:00

+EVolution of Poker #2

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Where to start learning poker and the elements of poker

- Managing your bankroll
- Maximizing the use of videos and forums
- Using software
- Poker Fundamentals

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VARIANCE

- Variance is why bad players keep playing!

- Winrates and Variance

The higher your winrate, the less variance will hurt you.

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WHAT ARE FUNDAMENTALS? / WHAT IS FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND POKER?

- Understanding why a particular play is correct
- Putting money in when you have an edge / not putting money in when you don't have an edge

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BASIC PREFLOP FUNDAMENTALS

- You can only win preflop by raising

- Limping in 6-max

There are two types of limping - open limping and overlimping

Open limping is often a poor choice, because you place yourself in an awkward spot if a player behind you raises. You either have to call, investing more than you had wanted to preflop, or fold, in which case you have lost your preflop investment without even getting to see a flop.

Clearly, when someone limps in front of you, you have the opportunity to put them into that same difficult spot.

- Multiway or shorthanded?

Which way does your hand play best? Think about the types of hands you'll can flop with that hand.

ATo - usually top pair. Not a good hand multiway, as you'll usually have top or second, pair which isn't all that good against multiple opponents

44 - A set or nothing. A good hand multiway, as you'll have an easy decision on most flops against any kind of action.

- Deep stack or shallow?

Hands that favor deep stacks are those that can hit very strong hands - sets, flushes, nut straights = multiway hands

Hands that favor short stacks are those that hit moderately strong hands more frequently - high cards = heads up hands

- Position dependant hand?

Hit-or-miss hands (pocket pairs) are less position reliant than those that involve a lot of draws (76s) or high cards.

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BASIC POSTFLOP FUNDAMENTALS

- Hand Reading
- Ranges

Once you know what your opponent is holding, you can play against him perfectly.

Lacking that, you want to narrow down his range as often as you can. Every action that your opponent makes tells you something about his hand.

- Continuation bets

- Draws

How much value does your draw have?

Do you have overcards that may be good? How likely is your draw best when you do get there? Do you have extra outs via a gutshot, or are you more limited with a straight draw on a flushing board?

What odds do you need to chase?

- Slowplaying

- River, calling and betting

- Getting all in

- Sizing your bets

Notes: SSNL Disease #5

2010-04-30T19:11:00.001-07:00

SSNL Disease #5

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Why do talented players fail to advance beyond small stakes?

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The "Isn't Necessary" fallacy

- "You don't need to do this at this level"

Are you going to look at things fully, or are you going to abbreviate your win rate by not doing everything you can to maximize it?

Poker is NOT completely formulaic. You sometimes have to be creative in your play in order to win more.

-----

SYMPTOMS:

- Obsession with ABC play

ABC play is commonly defined as basic, winning poker.

A more specific definition is taking the most obvious profitable spots and gradually working your way through less and less profitable spots until you reach a point at which you are satisfied.

- Misunderstanding of what the fundamentals are.

The fundamentals of poker are not things like value betting fish, common c-betting spots, etcetera.

This is a misunderstanding of poker theory, which tells us we must bluff a certain amount and value bet a certain amount for optimal results. The ability to value bet fish relentlessly is not a fundamental - it is a derivative of our need to balance our range to take advantage of how our opponent plays. Fish commonly call far more than they should, therefore we weigh our balance point heavilly toward value betting them.

The underlying THEORY is what is fundamental. When we deviate from our balance, it is to exploit our opponent's lack of balance.

- Minimal creativity and exploration.

The the two previous concepts lead to a predictable, mechanical style of play rather than a more dynamic "How will he respond if I do "x"?" approach. There is no effort to move beyond the very basic exploitative play.

- Abhorrence of variance

- Chronic range and tendency pessimism.

Comfort is too important in this mistake - we need to move beyond our comfort zone in search of additional profit.

-----

COMMON SPOTS FOR MISTAKES:

- Overly strict preflop ranges

- Static c-betting and barreling

- Universal assumptions for player types

- Little in-game handreading

- Preoccupation with valuebetting

- Overly low bluff frequencies

-----

THE ONE PUMP CHUMP

You bet every flop and then give up. Stop this.

- Make handreading a habit
- Ask: What will call? What will fold?
- Stop being so pessimistic?

What is my range for getting to this flop? What does my opponent think I have here?

How strong is his range on this board? How many barrels will he call?

How can I induce a mistake?

-----

UNIVERSAL ASSUMPTIONS

Hey, that LAG isn't *always* bluffing here...
Hey, that nit doesn't *always* have the nuts...

- Don't think in terms of labels
- Think in terms of individual tendencies

Get in the habit of observing players without the benefit of numbers.

-----

VALUEBETTING LESS, BLUFFING MORE

Take a moment to consider Villain's range...

- Stop doing *anything* automatically.

Thinking through every play will keep you from mechanical strategies. What is the most +EV play I can make NOW?

- How is my opponent most likely to make a mistake?

What is the mistake I want to induce here?
C/F is 0 EV. What is the EV of a bluff in this spot?

- People call you down less than you think.

-----

FIXING THESE ISSUES

- Replace "necessary" with "profitable"

The question needed is not "Is this necessary for me to make a profit at this level?".
It is "Is this play profitable?"

How do we figure this out?

- Identify spots where you feel you lack information

Where am I lost? Where do I just give up because I don't know what to do? Where am I taking the easy way out?

- Identify spots where the results surprise me.

Results orientation as a perjorative means that you're biasing your decisions based upon the current result

In this case, we use the result to accurately define what our Villain's range is in this spot.

Be more critical of yourself. Take more notes in challenging spots. Objectively revisit your thinking regularly.

- Proceed in small steps.

ABC poker is profitable poker at the low limits. Revisit your thinking in stages, adding new hooks on as you effectively analyze the game.

In a vaccuum, you should look to make every play 0EV and better.

- Press your comfort zone.

Get in those spots you haven't been in yet and learn how to play them.

- Make your game interactive again.

DON'T AUTOPILOT.

NOTES: SSNL Disease #4

2010-04-30T02:32:00.001-07:00

SSNL Disease #4

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Why do talented players not move up beyond the small stakes?

1. Getting better reads
2. Playing the turn and river more competently
3. Dealing with situations when you are not the aggressor
...
4. Focusing on the wrong infomation

Small stakes games often don't test players all that much. As a result, aspiring players aren't forced to consider the situation well enough. Your conclusions in a given spot may well be based upon the wrong reasons.

As you're already being successful, you may not go back over these spots and figure out whether or not you had the proper thinking process.

-----

SYMPTOMS:

- Seizing on any information available.

Anything you can say about Villain is thrown into the mix. i.e. - Villain is 20/15 and 3-bets a lot preflop when considering river play.

- Extrapolating from unrelated spots.

i.e. - Trying to make USE of those preflop numbers in a river spot. Assuming his frequent 3-bets lead to bluffing rivers.

- Dependence on too many assumptions.

- Dropping a lot of terminology.

Do you understand the meaning of the words, or are you just throwing out language? The more you're using buzzwords, the more you need to ensure that you have the basic concepts behind them down solidly. While learning, avoid such terminology.

- Incomplete/bad analysis and then concluding.

Hasty generalizations. Just because he bluffed last time doesn't mean that he's bluffing now. Was he tilting? How was the situation different? Was it a good place to bluff then and is it now?

-----

COMMON SPOTS FOR MISTAKES:

- Inferring postflop play from preflop stats.

- Worrying about ranges when tendencies are key.

i.e. When making a call with a bluff catcher, it's more important to know how likely your opponent is to actually be bluffing rather than what portion of your range you're holding.

- Calling c-bets with inadequate turn/river thought.

Discussed in previous videos. Always have a plan.

- Rebluffing in spots where you rep very little.

- Failure to estimate for 'odd combinations' in thin spots.

-----

INFERRING POSTFLOP PLAY:

Who says that 29/22 bluffs a lot preflop?
Who says that 16/13 always has the nuts?

Someone who's loose preflop might be passive postflop. It's easier to play a preflop hand chart than it is to deal with the challenges of the turn.

Someone who's a nit preflop may well overplay his hands postflop. Look at how you used to play. ;)

Observe how people actually PLAY.

Stop characterizing people with broad strokes. Replace numbers with words - having to make a verbal description of a player will both provide fodder for notes and give you more insight into his approach and thinking.

Obtain reads for each street. Preflop play is different from later streets. The deeper you get, the less experience most players will have.

Look for diverging tendencies on each street. Is he c-betting a lot then shutting down on the turn? Tend to believe him on the turn. You can exploit your opponent by folding in a situation where he bets exclusively for value (or nearly so).

-----

RANGES v TENDENCIES

- Look for HUD stats that are heavilly one directional.

Is a player who is normally passive in this spot betting? The less often he bets in this spot, the more likely he is to be betting for value when he does put money into the pot. The more often he bets in this spot, the more bluff/weak hands are in his range.

- Take notes on players to note their tendencies.

What factors encourage this player to act? Danger cards? Passive actions by their opponent?

- Be detached. Plan for tough spots and remove emotion as much as possible. ALWAYS pause before your decision.

-----

CALLING C-BETS

Yes, you have a strong hand. You often won't on the river.

- How will you respond as the board runs out?
- Review Villain's turn/river aggression
- Consider his hand reading ability and your range.
- What factors are going into his decision - are there threats on the board, is he just going to fire like a maniac on every street, is he actually trying to put us on a hand?

-----

POOR REBLUFFING

- Evaluate Villain's abilites and tendencies.

Can he read hands? Does he like to bluff on dry boards?

- Consider your range on this texture.

Is this a spot where you're c-betting everything? Or is your range limited to strong hands? Are you actually repping anything with a c-bet or a reraise?

- Consider how you can win this pot with air.

Spazz raising a flop isn't the only option you have. You can float and keep your range wide, attack on the turn or river...

-----

ADDRESSING THE UNEXPECTED

** Stop assigning your own ranges/tendencies to your opponent **

How can we account for these seemingly "random" actions by our opponent?

- Consider his numbers: VPIP, barreling frequency...

Is he looser preflop? Then he has more trash in his range. Someone playing 30% of hands is probably playing a lot of random suited cards and weak connectors.

- How ambitious or random is this player?

Is he playing simply because he has a high card in his hand? Any two suited?

- Imagine anything that could add combinations to their range.

Is he tilting? Did he isolate a weak limper? Were there three people in the pot in front of him, giving him some tasty pot odds to chase with trash?

Look to factor MORE hands into their range, not less.

-----

FIXING THESE ISSUES

- While you're playing, identify situations where you feel that you don't have information.

- Take more specific notes on players.

Make them contextual.
Consider the relevant information.

- Double-check the information - does it support your conclusion? Or are you just spewing out catch phrases?

- PLAN - Do your off-table work to prepare. Identify the leaks in your thinking.

Notes: Omakase #6

2010-04-24T19:51:00.001-07:00

Omakase #6

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Live action video w/ Whitelime

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Hand #1 (:45) - AQo in the CO

Preflop: MP raises to $12, Hero calls

Coach indicates that three-betting is his standard line here, though calling is also a valid decision in this position.

Villain is neither crazy nor loose, so the idea is to play a pot in position.

Flop: 543r ($30): MP checks, Hero bets $20, Villain raises to $60

((ME: Not a flop that's likely to hit either of these players. If Villain has overcards to the flop, a C/C or C/F is the likely result of our bet. the C/R likley indicates some kind of overpair, but not a monster. AA/KK can hide themselves in among all the overcard calls. His range is most likely a 99/TT trying to get value from a lower pocket pair or to punish overcards.

$40 to call in a $70 pot, we likely have 10 outs and will almost certainly be facing a bet on the turn.))

Fold quickly. At the very least this TAG has an overpair. Checking back in this position initially allows us to see a free turn and try to draw out on him if we're behind.

-----

Hand #2 (3:46) - 33 on the button

Preflop: MP raises to $18, Hero calls
Flop: TT4 ($46): MP raises to $24, Hero folds

Getting 3:1 on a call? Hero has a lot of equity in this spot with a concealed hand. There simply isn't much that Villain can have that has actually hit this board or that can deal with much pressure.

Hero has both position and a made hand. It's difficult to be put into an awkward position on the next street.

If you aren't comfortable with calling in that spot, raising is a very valid option. Villain is put in a position where he can't really bluff effectively.

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Hand #3 (6:06) - 55 in the SB

Preflop: CO raises to $18, Hero raises to $66, CO calls

Hero 3-bet this guy on the previous hand and got him to fold. The continued aggression nets a call from Villain this time.

Flop: 643r ($141): Hero... bets $70, Villain calls

((ME: Hero has 11 outs to the effective nuts here and is standing ahead of any overcard hand Villain will show down. Barring a flopped set, Hero is at the worst coinflipping against any hand the CO is going to show up with.

As such, we're happy to get a lot of money in the middle now before our equity drops on the turn. Our options are to C/R, to bet weak, or to bet strong.

A strong bet will drive out the clean misses while keeping in the overpairs to the board that we have the weakest equity against.

A check-raise will have the same effect, and comes with the additional difficulty of your opponent choosing to simply check behind. Any card that doesn't complete our draw is very painful, particularly paint.

A weak bet looks weak in this pot. Against a raise, we're happy to shove over the top with good fold equity against overcard ranges and strong pot equity against any hand that can call.))

Bet half pot...

On the flop, check-raising would be better if Villain is more likely to have hit the board and we'd be likely to fold with an AK/AQ type of hand.

Turn: 4 ($241): Hero checks, Villain checks

The plan is to check-raise all in here to get value from Villain's floating on the flop. The plan is foiled when the Villain checks behind.

River: 7 ($292): Hero... bets $168, Villain folds

((ME: the board is paired. Are we afraid of Villain holding a full house? Not really. He'd have tried to nudge the pot up a little on the turn to get our stack in on the river. So we can play our straight as if it were the nuts.

So how can we get the most money in?

If Villain has overcards, he's not calling a big bet. We need to give him the chance to bluff.

If Villain has an overpair, he's betting and may call a check-raise depending on how big his overpair is.))

Villain's checking the turn back leans toward having a weak hand, so we need to bet small to get value and possibly to induce. Most of his range right now can't value bet.

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Hand #4 (38:09) - Hero has K8s in the BB

Preflop: SB raises to $16, Hero calls
Flop: 952tt ($32): Villain bets $20, Hero... bets $60, Villain calls

((ME: We have a flush draw and an overcard, Villain doesn't have to have anything here. Calling is obviously fine as we can either hit or take it away from him later.

Does betting accomplish anything? If we raise in this spot, everything worse than us goes away except for a scattering of flush draws. Any pair calls, as does any genuinely strong hand. Our best option is likely to call here and see what the turn brings with our 12-15 outs... assuming we're behind at all.))

Raise him. We don't have a made hand at the moment and it's likely Villain doesn't either. No need to be greedy in this spot when we're just as likely to just hand it all back.

Turn: 3 ($152): Villain checks, Hero checks

We don't want to be check-raised in this spot. He called our semi-bluff, our equity has fallen sharply and he's simply not likely to go away if he's calling in that spot.

((ME: what range can we put SB on? Any 9, most pocket pairs, a flush draw.))

River: 7 ($152): Villain checks, Hero checks

We look like we have a missed draw. Villain shows down ATo

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Hand #5 (49:00) - Hero has AJ on the button

Preflop: Hero raises to $12, BB raises to $32, Hero raises to $88, Villain pushes for $450, Hero folds

The plan was to pick up from the obvious resteal spot against a fairly TAG Villain. He simply woke up with a real hand as part of his 7% 3-betting range.

-----

Notes: Omakase #3

2010-04-24T14:45:00.001-07:00

Omakase #3

Watched #2 - the individual hands were well above my level at this point, so I didn't keep the notes to hand.

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Video session with sthief09

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Hand #1: Hero has A5o on the button

Preflop: Hero bets $10, SB calls

((ME: standard button steal raise))

Flop: A92r ($24): SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB calls

((ME: Villain's range? A lot of unimproved pairs and 89/T9 type hands along with weak suited aces. We're behind most of the aces given the flop. As dry as it is and given our position preflop, he could easily choose to float without the ace here.))

Turn: Q ($56): Villain checks, Hero checks.

((ME: We can't be getting value here. Villain is folding anything we beat to a second barrel and there's no way that queen helped his hand, while it could easily have helped ours.

Can we get a better hand to fold? Very unlikely. An ace with a weak kicker has no reason to assume he's beaten here. So betting serves no purpose except getting money in bad.))

River: 4 ($56): Villain checks, Hero bets $26

((ME: Villain had the opportunity to bet the river for value if he had a legitimately strong hand. He chose not to, so we can eliminate most of the strong aces from his range as well as sets since he can't assume we'll bet the river after checking the turn back. As such, our weak ace is looking stronger and stronger.))

Villain is 31/15, so somewhat passive. His preflop range and flop call range are going to be wider than that of a TAG, increasing the number of hands that we actually beat in this situation. This is a thin value bet and we'll sometimes get called down by A8s, but there should be enough TT/T9/88 type hands in there that make a crying call given the action to make it profitable

-----

Hand #2: Hero has JJ on the button

Preflop: MP (17/14) opens to $12, Hero calls

Perfectly reasonable decision here. If we raise and get 4-bet we have to give it up to the TAG and we don't want to do that. By not raising here, we keep his range wide.

Flop: AQ3tt ($30): MP bets $24, Hero folds

((ME: Pretty ugly flop for us, but what's Villain's range from MP? Probably any pocket pair, Aces down to AT, KQ/KJ, QJ and a few random suited connectors. We're actually ahead against that range about half the time. The problem we're facing is that we can stand up to precisely no pressure. If we call in position and Villain bets the turn, we have to fold.

Is he likely to apply pressure on the turn? Not really. There aren't that many legitimate draws we can represent, so our call is most likely a made hand - KQ at the worst, an ace otherwise. A lot of stuff that isn't going away. The TAG will likely shut down in this spot if we call and he doesn't have it, so float and attempt to take it away on the turn if he checks it to us.))

Villain is TAGgy and makes a lot of c-bets, but doesn't continue to barrel often. This isn't a bad place to float.

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Hand #3: Hero has AKo UTG

Preflop: Hero raises to $16, SB raises to $52, Hero folds

This specific player is very nitty when it comes to his 3-bets. Against a TAG player, if we flop a K against his QQ-TT, he's likely to pay us off, and if an A comes down we have a good chance of dominating him. Here, we can't be sure of getting paid in this spot, and our chances of dominating are much less.

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Hand #4: Hero has KTo in the BB

Preflop: SB raises to $12, Hero... calls

((ME: Villain is loose and aggressive preflop over a limited sample size. We're very likely to be ahead in this spot, so the decision is to call or to raise.

If we raise, we are pushing out most of the hands that we're ahead of, and our hand isn't particularly strong against the resulting range. Calling would therefore be my selection, trying to hit a hand and get some value by letting him overplay and bluff.))

Standard

Flop: T97tt ($24): SB bets $20, Hero... calls

((ME: Top pair, good kicker on a very drawy board. Villain is likely c-betting here with his entire range, as that board is just so wet that he can easily rep having hit it. How is he going to respond with...

Air? If we re-raise he's either going to fold or 4-bet bluff back at us - I'm guessing fold, as it's too easy for us to have a hand willing to go to showdown.

A draw? The better draws are probably willing to go all the way here and we're coin tossing.

A made hand? Anything significan't weaker than us is willing to walk away unless they have a flush or straight possibility to back them up.

We can't bet for value here with our top pair, so just flat and see what comes on the turn.))

Turn: J ($62): SB bets $24, Hero... calls.

((ME: pretty ugly card. We now have second pair and a lot of draws and two pairs just came in. About the only hand that would bet on the flop and continue betting on the turn that we can beat is QT. We've added a gutshot to our range, so we're sitting on three clean outs to what is likely the best hand.

What's Villain's range here? Pretty much the same as the previous street. He can represent a lot here, while we're unlikely to have an 8 for the straight and KQ probably wouldn't have continued on the board.))

With AT we're probably going away here since we don't have any kind of a draw. AT vs a straight is no equity. With the king, we have some equity against his big hands.

Most of his hands are either made hands or have strong equity in this spot. Folding is probably the choice, as the gutshot is simply so obvious that we aren't likely to get any value from it.

Student: Villain is a loose/passive postflop. He's not betting for thin value in this spot, so his position is going to be rather sharply split into bluffs and monsters. He could very easily check 2 pair here.

River: 2 ($106): SB bets $20, Hero calls.

Getting 6:1? Pretty much have to call with any decent hand in this spot, since we need to win so rarely to justify it. Villain shows down a frightened QJs.

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Hand #5: Hero has AQo UTG

Preflop: Hero raises to $16, button calls

((ME: button is tight/pasive pre, limp-reraised from UTG earlier. His numbers look like he's a raise or fold type postflop.

What's his range? Most pocket pairs, AQ/AJ/KQ more than AK, and some connectors and suited aces/broadway))

Flop: KQ3r ($38): Hero... checks, Villain checks.

((ME: c-betting would be the standard play here to pick up the pot without a whole lot of fuss, folding to a lot of aggression from your typical player. Is it right here?

If we c-bet, he's folding anything without significant equity, so we're squaring off against AK/KQ/AQ/KJ/JT/33. All the medium pairs are going away on that board.

If we don't c-bet, is he going to try and pick it up? Very possibly. We can get a street of value from those medium pairs and weaker queens.

My thought would be to pick it up now. The C/C looks very suspicious, and simply checking to him on this type of board that's almost a lock to have hit us isn't going to induce too many bets.))

Checking to give him the opportunity to make a mistake. High aggro/low go to showdown is the type of player you want to give the opportunity to bluff to. Against most opponents, you want to bet out because you'll be getting called by some mid pairs.

Turn: K ($38): Hero checks, Villain checks
River 6 ($38): Hero bets $24, Villain folds

Have to try to get some value from the best hand.

-----

Hand #6: Hero has 88 in the SB

Preflop: Hero raises to $16, BB raises to $48, Hero calls

If you're going to 4-bet here you have to just get it in. We're not entirely set mining here when we call, but we need to be aware of the board texture and play carefully. Our decision here unless against an aggro monkey is fold or call preflop.

Notes: Omakase #1

2010-04-21T14:47:00.001-07:00

Omakase #1

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DJ Sensei - Hielko - HH review

200/400NL

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Hand #1 - Hero is 100xBB deep in the BB, 200NL, Qd9h

Preflop: SB raises to $6, Hero opts to reraise to $20

((ME: At my level I'd likely fold this. Granted, Villain could very easily be on nothing here and seeing the flop is an option, so I'm expecting either a call or a raise from Hero. If a call, we can play the flop strong with what is likely the best hand if we hit a pair.))

SB reads as TAG regular, well-known at these limits. The reraise is best when Villain tends to fold to three bets in this situation. We have position and out hand has some strength, but when we get called we're almost certainly behind.

Flop: Q63tt: SB checks, Hero bets $26 into $40, Villain check-raises all in for another $154

((Me: TAG player in the SB called a 3-bet and is checking to me here. What's his range? Lots of broadway hands, lots of pairs. I'm not expecting to be shown 76s here. He's not going away with any hand that has significant equity and I don't want to get check-raised off top pair here as I can't stand any heat at all. What cards don't I want to see? An ace, a king, or a heart. Check behind here, hoping to induce a bet on the turn from a hand that I have beat.))

Hearts aren't a big concern for us here. Villain's range doesn't include a whole lot of heart draws, so we aren't concerned with implied odds but are rather looking toward maximizing value.

Range is big cards, pocket pairs. Not a lot of suited connectors. Betting here is more likely to get value from mid pocket pairs, but less so from big cards. Both betting and checking here are viable, with an emphasis on betting.

((ME: Okay, first thing, don't panic. What odds are we being offered here? There's $92 in the pot and we have to call $154, so 154:246 or about 3:5. I need to win about 37.5% here to justify the call.

Villain's range is made up of bluffs (which likely have 2-6 outs against me), made hands (against which I'm certainly behind, with 0-3 outs) and draws (heart flush only, likely 11 outs since I have a heart and he almost certainly has the ace on the play). Is this a logical play with a big made hand? No. For the same reason we aren't afraid of the draw, he isn't afraid of the draw and his big overbet here will only drive away those hands that are behind him. Draws and bluffs make up a bigger portion of his range. I doubt I'd have the nerve to call at my limits, but I suspect it's correct mathematically.))

Villain is making an overbet here. Typically, this is a concern. There are a lot of better hands than ours that will ship it in, particularly if they're afraid of a turn card that completes the draw.

We're losing to made hands, his draws are strong, with 50% equity. The only thing we're happy to be shown is a bluff here, and that's just not going to justify the play.

When do we call? When we have a legitimate kicker. AQ/KQ type hands can call in this spot. Villain shows down KQs when Hero makes the call.

With a hand like Q9o, don't be too eager to get a lot of money in the middle in a reraised pot, even when you hit top pair. The plan with that hand is to win a little pot, not get a big pot going.

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Hand #2 (10:15) - 400NL, Hero is 100xBB deep in the BB w/ KsJh

Preflop: UTG limps, MP limps, CO raises to $24, Button calls, SB calls, Hero opts to squeeze to $88, all fold to the SB who ships.

((ME: Look at the situation. There's a lot of limping and calling going on here. Button is very unlikely to be strong and it's nearly impossible for either the SB or the MP player to have any significant strength. UTG could possibly be trapping and CO may or may not have a real hand - he could easily have been attempting to pick up the pot from the two weak limpers.

The raise is giving very good odds to anyone that wants to call, however. They need to call $62 or $84 into a pot of $168 - nearly 3:1 for the CO, and those odds just keep rolling if one person calls. Nearly any hand is justified in calling unless we show them AA. The likely result here is that we're going to be OOP in a monster pot with a fairly weak hand. On this play, we have to expect to come out firing on the flop and likely go with nearly any made hand.))

Calling here isn't a good option as our hand doesn't play well OOP in a multiway pot? The goal of the raise is to take down the dead money in the pot preflop.

The call wouldn't be a terrible option. We aren't getting reraised here, but squeezing is probably a better choice. If the raiser was very tight, we'd just fold. What we're hoping for is that he was trying to pick up dead money himself.

((ME: Ummmm. Wow. That's a bizarre play. Before we go anywhere, what price are we being offered? $312 to win $456 - about 1.5:1. We need to win about 40% of the time to justify the call. We get that if he's playing a pair less than jacks or AQ/AT.

What's Villain's range? Bizarre. Trapping with a monster in his place makes no sense whatsoever. A middle pair that puts us on AK and wants to eliminate the postflop guessing game when an overcard hits? That makes some sense. AK himself, praying that we don't have the AA/KK we're representing? Possibly.

Whatever it is, it's a hand that he can't fold, and unfortunately we're nowhere near as strong as we were letting on. We can barely call if he has one of the hands that justifies the play, and with every hand we add to that range the odds get worse. Let this one go without a huge read.))

Pointless to be playing a big hand in this manner. The obvious choices are medium pocket pairs, and if he puts you on a wide range to squeeze here then his play makes some sense. As we can eliminate most of his bigger hands from the range, this is potentially a call if we believe he's a good enough player to realize that we can squeeze as a bluff here.

Hero calls. Villain shows down AJs.

-----

Hand #3 - 200NL, Hero is 120xBB deep in the SB w/ JJ

Preflop: MP limps, CO overlimps, Hero raises to $12, MP and CO call.

((ME: Player's line is standard here. What do the other two players have? MP could potentially have a monster that he's super-slowplaying, but it is much, much more likely that he has a high implied odds hand such as a small-medium pair or a suited connector, or possibly some weak broadway. CO's range has virtually no strong hands, all draws: small-medium pairs, suited connectors, suited aces. I'm not afraid of overcards on this board - I'm much more worried if something like 962tt comes down and there's a ton of action.))

Flop: 664tt: Hero bets $24, MP folds, CO calls.

((ME: Given my expectations on their ranges, I'm not looking to build a monster pot here. I want to extract value from the 55/77/88 hands, but I have to be careful about the very possible 44/67s types. I'm c-betting here, but proceeding with caution.))

We're ahead here most of the time, so start extracting some value. Most of the hands that call our c-bet are way behind, even with the potential for monsters.

Overlimper is definitely dangerous here, as he's more likely to have a six in this spot. His call could be a float, but there's a fair number of decent draws and trips. The type of player that might overlimp in this spot could easily have some weak hands.

Turn: As ($86): Hero checks, Villain bets $56, Hero calls

((ME: Difficult card. We're now behind Ax flush draws and his middle pairs aren't likely to continue here. A bet on our part is just going to push out those hands that we beat and lead to a call or raise from those that have good equity against us. We can't go for value here.

Can we induce? 88/99 might turn themselves into a bluff attempting to pick up the pot here. Check, planning to call a bet.))

Villain may continue to call with a draw here, but in most cases he's going to go away with hands that we are ahead of.

If we think we're ahead here (flush draws, medium pocket pairs) based upon our read of the Villain, now is the time to check-raise all in. This is good against the type of player that is aggressive when shown weakness, bad against passive postflop types. Most of the time at these limits, put it all in. Calling simply leaves us with $140 and a $200 pot on the river.

River: Qc ($198): Hero checks, Villain bets $138. Hero folds

((ME: Ugh. Now I see why the check-raise is the suggested play here. Once again, we can't bet for value - Villain will simply fold his missed draws and call with those hands that beat us. Checking almost mandates a call, getting better than 2:1 when his range includes a number of bluffing hands that may think they can push us off))

We look like we have a strong hand when the ace comes down on the turn and C/C. The bluff for Villain doesn't make sense unless he's an aggrofish. We have a bluff catcher and he isn't going to be bluffing often enough.

-----

Hand #3 - 400NL, Hero is 120xBB deep (50xBB v limper) w/ Qc9d on the button

Preflop: CO limps, Hero raises to $16, Villain calls.

((ME: Don't like this because of the stack sizes. We have a weak hand and very little room to maneuver if we're called and have to play postflop. Not liking the possibility of getting all in against a short stack with top pair in this spot.))

Villain is loose-passive fish type, so we can expect to be called fairly frequently. He's likely ahead of us now and isn't getting away if he hits postflop. We're not getting it in postflop with the best of it very often.

Flop: 843 mono: CO checks, Hero bets $28, Villain calls

((ME: We have the Q-high flush draw and the initiative. Our equity is good if he doesn't have a higher club, but with $38 in the middle and $174 behind, we don't have a lot of maneuvering room.

If we bet here, what's calling? Big clubs and flushes, most pairs, maybe even some random overcard hands. Do we have the ability to get a fold out of a better hand? Sure - some weak A-high, K-high will go away to a bet. So there's a bluff element to a c-bet in this spot as well as setting up for value if we get called by 99-ish hands))

No reason not to c-bet here. He's going to give up a lot, and we have a lot of ways to win.

Turn: 6c, completing the flush ($86): CO bets $28, Hero calls

((ME: We have the flush. Is Villain calling with worse than what we currently hold?

Assign him a range. Big clubs, made flushes on the flop are calling. So are "big hands" like sets and straights. Overcards and one pair hands without a club are probably gone to a bet and aren't too likely to bluff on that monstrosity.

Our opponent is passive and so could easily have checked a weaker hand to us. We're not getting it all in ahead here very often. A weak lead here, setting up a river shove and folding if we get check-raised looks to be the best option. If he shoves, he isn't bluffing and I want to be in the position to decide if the money goes in on the river.))

Villain could have a higher flush, but we're going to have a hard time getting away from this with the third nuts.

((ME: Villain donk is something I wasn't expecting here. It's an obvious threat card even to him, and if he actually had a strong flush I wouldn't expect him to bet here - passive player and we've been betting all along. Call the bet, plan to call the rest off on the river.))

Villain's range still covers a fair range - he could be making a weak bluff with a bad made hand, he could be on a worse flush, or he could obviously be on a higher flush. Calling here gives him the chance to bluff on the end or show down the worst hand cheaper.

River: 2c ($142): CO checks, Hero pushes, Villain calls w/ KcJh

((ME: Villain now has the flush, and may shove here with a wide range assuming that they can't possibly get away so maybe he can push us off of a better hand. I'm not too inclined to think that a shove here is playing the board, however... our Villain is the passive type.))

On the plus side with the check we're almost certainly ahead and can value bet freely. Pushing here looks more bluffy than the nudge bet in my opinion, but the coach leans toward a half-pot bet so he can talk himself into calling.

-----

Hand #4 - 200NL, Hero is 250xBB deep in the CO w/ AQhh

Preflop: Hero raises to $6, BB reraises to $20 (125xBB deep)

((ME: We have suited big cards, which is good in a reraised pot. BB could easily be seeing us on a steal raise here. I see no reason not to at least call. Can 4-betting be correct? I don't think so, not without some specific read on this Villain that he likes making this kind of play.))

Calling here is very standard without extensive history against this opponent. Folding or 4-betting may be used in exceptional circumstances.

Flop: Ac8s3h ($41): BB bets $23, Hero calls

((ME: obviously a good flop for us, as we've hit top pair with a very good kicker. We're losing to AK/AA, splitting w/ AQ, and beating everything else as 88 and 33 really aren't in his range.

What IS his range? No read given by the commentators, so big pairs, big broadway with an emphasis on AK/AQ. Weaker hands are more likely to simply call preflop.

Can we raise for value against his range? Not really. If he doesn't have an ace and we raise, he's shutting down immediately. If we're ahead, we're not too concerned with being drawn out on as he has very few outs. We also can't push him off of a stronger hand as AK/AA are obviously never folding here in a million years. Call in position and see the turn.))

Villain's c-bet is obvious and fairly mandatory. We can't expect to be called by worse. Can we induce a bluff with a minraise? It depends largely upon their range. If they're the tight 3-betting type, then you're never going to make more and should just call. If he's a looser 3-better, then a minraise to induce is more of an option. Calling is standard, however.

Turn: 4s ($87): BB checks, Hero bets $52, Villain goes all-in for $210

((ME: Puts the flush draw on the board. I'm not hugely concerned by this, though there's always the possibility that AQss just started to freeroll. My call on the flop has pretty much announced my hand - Ace with a good kicker.

Villain's check on the turn is standard. If he has a hand stronger than mine, he doesn't want to announce it and is more likely to C/C with an eye on getting three streets of value. If he doesn't have the ace, he has no intentions of putting another penny in the pot. I can't really gain here by betting against any significant portion of his range, so check behind.))

There aren't very many worse hands that can pay us off. Checking is better against the type of player that can't keep themselves from bluffing when you aren't showing strength. The draws aren't dangerous.

Checking behind also keeps him from getting stacks in when he has AK. It also avoids the check raise.

((ME: Precisely the situation I wanted to avoid. I have to call $158 to win a $191 pot, so slightly better than 2:1. My hand is pretty much face up here, and without a specific read on the Villain I can't put him on a huge range of bluffs. I'm likely behind and can't call this bet.

Hero calls, Villain shows down 44. Definitely take a note on this player, as he's reraising very light from the BB and his c-bet was fairly brazen.))

-----

Hand #5 - 200NL, Hero is 100xBB in the BB w/ As8c

Preflop: UTG raises to $8, Hero reraises to $26, Villain calls

UTG is a good player and is opening a fair range under the gun. The 3-bet is based on the fact that we have the blocker and Villain may well be trying to take advantage of his position to steal a pot.

Coach isn't all that happy about the play. Even though this play looks very strong, you're simply going to get called or raised a lot here. Preflop may be +EV depending on UTG's range, but postflop is almost always -EV. If you're going to do this, do it with hands that can have significant postflop equity - i.e. suited connectors.

Flop: 997 ($53): Hero bets $28, Villain calls

((ME: What's Villain's range? Lots of overcards - AK/AQ/KQs types - as well as just about any pair as we're deep enough that he can justify the call in position both for set mining and resteal opportunities.

What's he putting us on? Certainly not A8o. He could very easily see us with a similar range to what we've just put him on. This board didn't hit us, but we can very easily represent the overpair. We may have to bet two streets to get him off AK/AQ, so a c-bet here is standard.))

C-betting here is standard, but check-raising is another valid option to represent AA/KK. C/R is probably better when you actually have the stronger hand, however, as Villain isn't likely to lay down QQ/JJ/TT

Bet sizing is important here as we're planning multiple streets. We want to bet a small enough amount that we don't put him in the position of being committed to the pot. $28 is spot on.

Turn: Ts ($109): Hero checks, Villain checks

((ME: Excellent for us. If Villain has the overpair that isn't going away, then we just picked up 4-8 more outs. His AK/AQ can't be happy in the face of continuing aggression. We bet weak on the flop to set up this position on the turn, so now is the time to come out firing strong and try to take the pot down.))

This card isn't as good as it looks. Villain is very possibly boated up and very little of his range is going away to continued aggression. Checking and folding is the more standard line.

River: A ($109): Hero checks, Villain bets $150 all in, Hero folds.

((ME: Improves our hand to the point where we're beating JJ/QQ - but those hands are unlikely to call a bet on that river. Our hand reads AK/AQ right now. A check from us seems obvious - the question is do we make a crying call if Villain bets into us?

He can't really expect us to fold here, so his range is going to be heavilly weighted toward value hands. AK/AQ, TT, 77 are obvious. Check-folding seems the most reasonable approach here.))

Blocking bet. Don't forget it. If we make the lead, then Villain is unlikely to bluff raise us in this spot as it's simply too likely that we've actually hit this card. Villain may make a crying call with KK-JJ, but if he comes over the top of us we're easily beaten.

((ME: The overshove demonstrates why the blocker bet would be so apt here. Villain is either on a stone cold bluff or has a nut hand and we're in a guessing situation.))

Not much we can beat here. Best case scenario, he's turning a weak pair into a bluff on the river, and this just too obviously hits our range. Fold.

-----

Hand #6 - 400NL, Hero is 200xBB deep in MP w/ KK

Preflop: UTG limps, Hero raises to $20, button (140xBB) raises to $60, UTG folds, Hero raises to $120, Villain calls.

((ME: Our options here are obviously 4-betting with the intention of getting all in preflop and calling to see a flop and trying to extract at that point. Our read on Villain's all in range preflop as well as his willingness to 3-bet light in this spot will help.

His current range without a read, probably AA-JJ, AK/AQ and a scattering of high implied value connectors but heavilly weighted toward what would be considered value hands. If we bet here, we're taking away most of the lower end of his range.

100xBB deep, I'd be inclined to 4-bet and get it all in here. 140xBB deep, I'm more inclined to call and try and induce a mistake from him postflop.))

Calling is playing OOP. 4-betting is probably the standard, but the flat works better against players that 3-bet and c-bet a lot in position.

The 4-bet size leaves a lot of room behind, giving Villain some rope in case he should decide to bluff an all in with what he assumes is fold equity. Calling a 4-bet is a rare circumstance and leaves us in a relatively easy position on most flops. In this case, he does.

Flop: QJ2tt ($250): Hero checks, Villain bets $100, Hero calls.

((ME: Not a flop I'm very happy with. We're losing to every other big pair and that's a good portion of his range. We're never getting value from a worse hand here and we're losing to a whole bunch.

His range is extremely narrow here, though the flat of the 4-bet could leave open the possibility of a smaller pair. If we bet here and he missed, he's leaving as our range is very narrow. I'm inclined to c-bet and shut down in the face of aggression.))

An "interesting" flop. $250 in the middle, $450 behind. Villain is a regular and somewhat on the nitty side, so he's more likely to show up with big pairs and AK. Some of his range is AQ/KQ/TT as well, but top pair can't be happy in this spot.

Checking here puts us in a spot where we're much more likely to stack off - Villain could bet AQ/AK and he could also bet QQ/AA

((ME: Doesn't really help determine things. Villain probably knows that he doesn't have to bet big to bluff here - just the opposite, really. A big bet doesn't make sense for either value or for bluffing purposes.

We pretty much have to call here, getting 3.5:1. Two outs to what is almost certainly the best hand and we stand a fair chance of being ahead now. Still, proceed with caution - this could get ugly.))

This bet could be a bluff or a value bet. He could certainly think we're giving up w/ AK, and he could certainly be setting up to get it all in w/QQ or JJ. Tough spot.

We have a major issue in that we're stuck guessing on the turn. None of our options are very good. This is a major argument for the bet/fold strategy on the flop as it makes our later decisions much easier.

Turn: 4 ($450): Hero checks, Villain goes all in for $320, Hero folds.

((ME: Again, ugly spot caused by not betting out on the flop. This could easily be a continuation of a bluff and for value if he hit the QQ/JJ. KK is actually a bluff catcher in this spot as Villain can't put us on a worse hand than we currently have.

$320 to win $770 is better than 2:1. I need to have a read on this player as being aggressive and bluffy to make this call, however. Letting it go as played.))

When we C/C in a four bet pot, Villain is putting us on a legitimate hand. His bet here is almost always for value, and even his bluffs have a certain amount of equity (AQhh). We're in big trouble most of the time. Fold.

-----

Hand #7 - 200NL, Hero is 100xBB deep in the SB w/ T9o

Preflop: Hero raises to $8, Villain calls.

((ME: not much to comment on here. Fairly standard raise with a hand that can hit a lot of flops intending to steal the blinds preflop and potentially have a good amount of equity postflop.))

Flop: AAKr ($16): Hero bets $10, Villain raises to $25, Hero calls

((ME: Well, that's an interesting flop. Against the unthinking players at my level, betting here will take it down from anyone who didn't hit it as they'll cower in fear. At these higher limits, they're more likely to recognize the fact that we simply aren't going to hit this flop very often.

If we're beting here, we're going to have to make the bluff over multiple streets. We can't expect an ace to fold ever. King? Maybe, but it'd require a trip to the river to do it. If we don't bet here, we're completely giving up. Bet out, planning to continue on the turn on nearly any card as there' nothing that can make this any worse for us.))

Flop looks a lot better for our range than for his.

Villain is a TAG regular. Betting here is the standard line.

((ME: Would Villain make that reraise with an ace? Probably not. He can call here and represent some kind of a weak made hand, intending to induce more bluffs on later streets with what he has to perceive is a lock hand. As we're betting this flop with all of our range, he's likely to be attempting to pick it up cheaply. Four-bet and get out in the face of continued aggression. Seeing a turn doesn't help us at all.))

Most of his good aces 3-bet preflop, so he isn't going to have a really good hand in this spot. There's little reason to reraise with any ace or even strong kings.

If he does have a real hand here, the small raise doesn't make all that much sense. If he shows down a strong hand in this spot, take a note.

As we aren't planning to show down here, what we have is irrelevant. Hero opts to call, with the intention of taking it away on a later street.

Turn: Q ($66): Hero checks, Villain checks

((ME: Is this a good spot? If Villain was on a pure bluff, that just looks better for us. If he wasn't, then that card doesn't hurt his range at all. JT is a vanishingly small portion of his range and we've represented some kind of a made hand here.

Bet out for about $40, planning to go away in the face of aggression.))

Right now we should be trying to play our hand like it was KQ, Ax. We're not expecting Villain to continue the bluff beyond one bet on the turn. How do we manage? C/R here, which will push out all of the missed hands and probably weak kings.

Betting out is another option. This board is extremely dry, so the Bet/Call - Bet line looks like we're trying to build the pot slowly. Again, in this spot we'd know that he has a real hand if he sticks around. It also prevents the situation where you check the turn and it checks through. Kx is much happier to show down in this spot rather than trying to build the pot.

The turn is where we want to put money in to win this pot. Villain simply has too good of a mix of hands that has every reason to shut down on the turn, preventing us from making our play.

River: 6 ($66): Hero bets $42, Villain folds

((ME: Betting here is obviously mandatory. The problem is that Villain can justify a call with a lot of made hands here - any A or K is obviously sticking around. What we need to do is push off those hands that don't have any showdown value in theory, but still beat our complete bluff.

Bet small here as if we were going for value - $40ish. Obviously snap fold to any aggro.))

Villain had air, Our line looks more value-ish against a thinking player than a fish.

Keep in mind what you're representing every time you make a bet. Is your line strong or weak? What about his?

Notes: +EVolution of poker

2010-04-20T16:42:00.001-07:00

+EVolution of Poker

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Learning the right way, learning how to learn.

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+EV

($won)(%winner)-($lost)(%loser) = EV

- There are two ways to make this equation tilt in the positive direction: increasing the amount won when you when and decreasing the amount lost when you lose.

- EV is not just a poker concept. Insurance companies. Investments.

- Think in terms of ranges. Just because a play was right this time doesn't mean it is correct all the time. A player who plays crazy requires a different type of approach than someone who is painfully tight.

- Don't be results oriented. Think long term.

- Inducing mistakes from your opponent is one way of getting more money out of him. You don't need to just fire carelessly.

- To make accurate estimates of your EV in a hand, you have to have an idea of what your opponent is holding.

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GOAL OF THE SERIES - To provide me with a toolbox from which to continue learning as well as some fundamentals so I can understand WHY a play does or does not maximize EV.

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UNDERSTANDING POKER

- Imagine a game of NLHE with no blinds

There's no cost of passing on most hands. Waiting until you have AA would be profitable.

Blinds add to the action at the table. Poker can be considered a fight for the blinds.

With most hands, you are doing better than your expected EV if you simply take down the blinds.

What does this mean? You don't want to limp/call a lot - You want to give yourself a chance to win the pot preflop before your opponent has a chance to hit.

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READING THE BOARD

- Practice with a deck of cards. Know the best possible hand, when you've been counterfeited.

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PSYCHOLOGY

- Both yours and your opponent's is important

How does Villain think about poker? How can I use that to get him to make a mistake?

Tight and doesn't want to lose money? Bluff more
Passive and cally? Value bet more
Aggressive? Call him down more lightly

What does he think about me? Bluffy and overaggro? Passive? Tight? Loose?

- Controlling your emotions - i.e. not tilting

You can't be a great winner if you can't control yourself. The higher you move up, the more tilting will cost you.

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RANDOM ADVICE

- Stay humble.

It'll help you to avoid tilt.
It'll keep you focused on learning all the time.
It'll keep you from underestimating your opponents.
It'll allow you to quit when you're doing poorly.

- The more you learn, the more you realize you don't know.

- Build a network of friends to talk to about poker.

Other people can bring a different perspective to a hand
You may simply not be able to see a leak
Use forums!

- Don't be self-weighting

i.e. Don't think about the chips in terms of money. This causes outside forces to make your decisions rather than the cold reality of EV.

Ex: You're up $100 on a session and in a big pot. Your opponent pushes on the river, and if you call and lose you'll be down $50. Wrong answer is to fold because it'll put you down. Right answer is to use your read on your opponent's hand to make the decision.

- Don't be too results oriented

Sometimes, you're going to be coolered.
Sometimes, he's going to suck out.
Sometimes, you're going to be outplayed.
Just because it was the right/wrong play this time, doesn't mean it's the right/wrong play.

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MATH v INTUITION

- Both are important.
- Intuition is based on the situation and opponent and centers on reads right now.
- Math is the foundation of good play

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AGGRESSIVE v PASSIVE

- Aggressive players tend to be the bigger winning players, but this is often taken too far. You need to be SELECTIVELY aggressive.

Sometimes you can put a lot of money in with TPTK, usually you can't.

- Know why you need to be aggressive

- Aggression gives you multiple ways of winning a pot.

- Passivity can be underrated

Inducing bluffs

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SOME KEY FUNDAMENTALS

- Put yourself in a good position postflop

Position
Relative Position

Being in the proper position gives you a better chance of making money with your hands.

Don't think just about position vis-a-vis the button, but with regards to the preflop raiser.

- Bet sizing

Do I need to balance my bet sizes against this opponent, or can I bet more with my good hands and less with my weak ones?

- Pot size and effective stacks

Can I set up leverage on a later street with a smaller bet?

- Big-, medium- or small pot hand?

- HAVE A PLAN

Know how you're going to respond to aggression. Particularly when you're OOP.

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SUPPLEMENTAL LEARNING

- Familiarize myself with the DC forums / 2+2 forums. Identify the players who know what they're talking about. Post a question for some of the more experienced players.

- Narrow down a list of videos to watch:

Movin' on Up
Coaching Tree
RL Micro NL baller
DJ Sensei Late Night Coaching
Unconventional Wisdom 1 and 2
King for a Day

Notes: SSNL Disease #3

2010-04-19T14:47:00.001-07:00

SSNL Disease #3

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Why do talented players fail to advance beyond small stakes?

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#3 - Difficulty when not the Aggressor

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SYMPTOMS::

- Confusion/anxiety without the initative
- Hand reading based on Villain's responses
- Less awareness of perceived ranges
- Focus on ease of decisions rather than EV

Embrace the challenges!

** Addressing these issues

- Stop fearing the call button

People tend to want to have a systematic approach to poker at the micro limits. This leads to a system that is completely static and is entirely based around being the aggressor, making hands, and value betting.

This keeps you from inducing bluffs, bluff catching, and other methods of making money.

- Plan better and more frequently
- Keep stronger hands in your range

Microstakes aggression play leads to an imbalanced range across the board. You're betting good hands, calling medium hands, and folding bad hands. Be aware of what the balanced approach would be.

Most of the time you have a weak hand (one pair). You want to make sure that your opponents realize that you can have a strong hand when you call.

- Be more range and texture-aware

Think about the ways the board can evolve in advance and what that means for each of your ranges.

- Once again, track your opponents' tendencies and expectations

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PREFLOP::

- Discomfort playing hands when not opening

Ex: opening 76s UTG but folding it on the button to a preflop raise. Make your game a lot more position heavy, calling in late position with a wider range.

- Preemptive excessive fear of facing a 3-bet

Some guy in position behind you is 3-betting excessively and you just fold rather than developing a strategy to deal with him. ((Pick hands that play easily postflop to call his 3bets - strong broadways, flat with some monsters as well))

- Anxiety toward postflop board texture

Have a plan for various types of board textures

Ex: I have 77 - what am I doing on a dry A-high flop? K-high? Two-tone trash?

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FLOP PLAY::

- Awkward lines produced by discomfort

Ex: Raising showdown-able hands IP - calling 77 preflop, flop is T32 and raising the preflop raiser's c-bet. What are you representing here? All you're attempting to do is avoid the turn and river.

- Folding or calling without a plan

Obviously, you should have a plan when you enter the pot preflop, and if you're sticking around you should have a plan for how to respond to each of the cards that may hit the board.

- Failure to take advantage of board textures

How range-aware is your opponent?

* Perceived range looks stubborn - i.e. 99 on A72, we'll look a lot less likely to fold on the turn and there aren't many cards that concern us.

This becomes stronger when you have preflop ranges that will hit a variety of different boards.

EX:: Raising showdownable hands for no apparent reason

400NL, Hero is in SB 100xBB deep w/ Jd7d

Preflop: Hero raises to $12, BB calls
Flop: Jc8d5h ($24): Hero bets $20, BB raises to $60, Hero calls.
Turn: 2s ($144): Hero checks, BB bets $82, Hero calls.
River: Ts ($308): Hero checks, BB bets $252 all in, Hero calls.

BB doesn't need to turn his hand into a bluff on the flop - SB is c-betting a lot on this flop, so he's simply pushing out those hands he's ahead of and paying off those he's behind.

Also the bet sizing is awkward, as his turn bet is very small in proportion to the pot.

** Train yourself to ask specific questions rather than simply panicking when the situation arises**

"What is his range?" is the key one.

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TURN PLAY::

- Spaz bluffraises that lack credibility

Ex: reraising on an overcard on a dry board at the turn

- Poorly structured call/fold frequencies

Consider your perceived ranges
Estimate your opponent's river frequencies - bet - check-call - check-fold

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FLOATING::

Definition - calling a continuation bet planning to win the pot based on board development and backdoor aggression.

** Bad floating signs

- Position: Floating in early position rather than late.

Being in late position inherently expands your range against a more thinking player.

- Ranges: Yours - weak/narrow/inelastic, His - strong/less defined

You want a range that will hit a wide range of turn cards, while Villain's is more isolated from the board.

- Board textures: dry, disconnected, unlikely to get significantly worse by the turn or river

We want a lot of cards that we can represent when we float

Examples of bad textures:

K94r - non-bricks are broadway, any nine
974r - non-bricks are seven-jack
J33r - non-bricks are nine+, and may hit Villain

- Barreling frequency: Villain is likely to do so with a medium to high frequency

** Ask yourself - Do I have a lot of strong hands in my range? **

** Good floating signs

- Position: Late position.

- Ranges: Yours - wider, elastic, good equity on a lot of turns/rivers, His - vulnerable

Your range should be split so that you can bet or call with both strong hands and draws.

- Board textures: semi-connected to downright wet. Lots of draws, unstable.

Examples of good textures:

AJ8tt - non-bricks include flush cards, KQJT97 (26 cards)
KT8r - non-bricks include QJT9 (15 cards)
975tt - non-bricks include flush cards, T9876 (24 cards)
T99tt - non-bricks include flush cards, QJT8 (21 cards)

Consider how many of these cards are in your opponent's range as well, given his position and approach.

- Barreling frequency: Low-medium

Notes: SSNL Disease #2

2010-04-17T16:33:00.000-07:00

SSNL Disease #2

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Why do talented players fail to advance beyond small stakes?

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#2 - Turn and River Weakness

One of the first areas that most players develop is their preflop and flop strategies. This is fine, but it means there is a corresponding lack of emphasis and lack of experience (you play turns and rivers less often) on the turn and river.

The lesser number of hands that reach these streets means there should be a further emphasis on studying and analyzing these streets.

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SYMPTOMS::

- Sagging turn/river aggression

if there is a significant drop, you're probably not playing the turn/river well

- Tapering aggression from the flop to the river
- Avoidance of marginal (but +EV) situations

- Failure to plan in hand

What's going to happen if I call a bet? How often is he going to barrel? Get away from playing your exact holding and start planning through the hand.

- Failure to plan away from the table

When studying away from the table, plan out a hand like a flow chart, figure out the math. What cards can I continue betting on? For value or as a bluff? What cards can I three barrel on the river? Do this against a variety of ranges

Do this to avoid emotional decisions at the table. Just logging a lot of hands will gain experience, but won't show you your own leaks.

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PREFLOP SYMPTOMS::

Turn and river weakness manifests itself preflop as well.

- General preference for easier, albeit less +EV, lines

If you are habitually folding +EV hands preflop, this is likely being guided by postflop issues

- 3-betting hands rather than playing them

((See this a LOT, where you bet people off their hands with your own big ones on the button))

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FLOP SYMPTOMS::

- General confusion on the turn/river if continuing
- Extreme aggression/passivity, designed to win the pot or fold in order to dodge the tough turn/river spots.

-----

COMMON WAYS OF MISPLAYING THE TURN::

This is typically a problem with poor hand reading.

- Poor estimation of ranges when pure bluffing

Examples: Some players will float with a pocket pair on an Axx board but will have to fold to the pressure of a turn bet.

Shutting down when the turn is a brick, and therefore failing to represent the hand you did with your c-bet.

- Failure to barrel

Examples: Shutting down with high equity drawing hands out of a fear of being check raised when hands that can make that play are a very small portion of your opponent's range.

When your hand range is strong against a relatively weak range from villain.

- Too much pot control

Not value betting when you clearly have the better range. Most people play passively out of position, allowing us to bet for thinner value in position.

-----

Hand Example #1 -

200NL - Hero is MP, 100xBB deep v Villain w/ As9c

Preflop: Hero raises to $6, CO calls, BB calls
Flop: Js5d4c ($19): BB checks, Hero bets $14, CO folds, BB calls.

((ME: Fairly standard continuation on a reasonably dry flop. Villain's range here is largely weak. He could have a jack, a lot of middle pairs, and possibly a 76 type of hand for the OESD.))

CO is TAG, BB is multitabler (range: lots of pocket pairs, decent aces, suited broadways)

With the call, we can further restrict BB's range: sets, 66-TT, AJ, KJ, QJ.

Combinations:
99 = 3 combos
66-88, TT = 6x4 (eliminate 6s = 18 combos)
sets = 3x3 = 9
AJ, KJs, QJs = 9+6 = 15

15 top pairs, 6-9 sets depending on whether he'd 3-bet JJ vs 21 underpairs.

The bluff here costs $32 to win $47, while Villain is folding 50% of the time.

Turn: 4s ($47): BB checks, Hero bets $32, BB folds

What about the river? If we barrel again, Villain only has a bluff catcher with AJ, as we don't have a weaker value hand and we have enough to make a pot sized bet, putting him into a very difficult spot.

-----

COMMON WAYS OF MISPLAYING THE RIVER::

- Too little follow through with bluffs

Take good notes. A lot of thinking players won't expect you to bluff on a brick.

- Worrying too much about exploitability
** Calling too often on bricks
** Folding too often on 'wet' cards

- All of this can be resolved by taking note of your opponent's tendencies and having a plan for the hand.

-----

EXAMPLES::

Ex 1:: 200NL, Hero is BB, 110xBB deep w/ KcQh

Preflop: Tightish regular button opens to $6, Hero calls.
Flop: KsJh2c ($13): Hero checks, Button bets $8, Hero calls.
Turn: 8s ($29): Hero checks, Button bets $22, Hero calls.
River: Th ($73): Hero checks, Button checks and shows 66

Take a note - Villain did not bluff the river here. Hero doesn't have a huge number of really strong hands here - KQ is pretty much the only hand he can hold to justify his play and it's nothing more than a bluff catcher here. Hero is losing to AK, AQ, KJ, KT, JT, and any set.

So as a result - Villain simply isn't going to be bluffing a lot of air hands on the river.

Ex 2:: 200NL, Hero is button, 120xBB deep w/ 8d8c

Preflop: UTG limps, CO (regular) raises to $10, Hero calls, UTG folds.
Flop: 7h4c3d ($25): CO bets $16, Hero calls $16
Turn: Js ($57): CO checks, Hero checks.
River: Kh ($57): CO checks, Hero checks, CO shows As3s.

Take a note - Villain did not continue to bluff when two threat cards came down onto the board on the turn and river.

Ex 3:: 200NL, Hero is CO, 100xBB deep w/ As9c

Preflop: Hero raises to $6, Button calls
Flop: Ad7c4c ($15): Hero bets $11, Button calls
Turn: 5d ($37): Hero checks, Button bets $28, Hero calls
River: 2h ($93): Hero checks, Button checks and shows AhJd

Take a note - Villain didn't value bet on the river when he's about 100% likely to be ahead.

Ex4:: 200NL, Hero is Button, 100xBB deep w/ KdQs

Preflop: MP raises to $6, Hero calls
Flop: 9c4c3d ($15): MP checks, Hero bets $10, MP calls
Turn: Td ($35): MP checks, Hero bets $26, MP calls
River: 9h ($87) MP checks, Hero bets $158 all in, MP folds

Each of our bets gradually defines both our hand and that of Villain. The button gradually moves from a fairly wide range preflop to a lot of middling pairs, AK/AQ hands and some draws. Ours divides more starkly into powerhouses (full houses and trip nines) and some bluffs.

On the river we have a good number of value hands when we shove. Combine this with a psychological effect of having bet twice the pot and Villain's range being filled with bluff catchers puts him in a spot where he's going to have to fold most of the time.

Notes: SSNL Disease

2010-04-16T17:50:00.001-07:00

SSNL Disease #1

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Why do talented players fail to advance beyond small stakes?

-----

#1 - Failure to acquire good reads

A read is any thing about your opponent's play that you can describe

- What does this player do?
- How does he think?
- How does he see me?

-----

SYMPTOMS ::

- Overreliance on a HUD
- Lack of note taking
- Playing exclusively in the softest games

-----

Failure driven by a practical problem::

- Too automated - relying on the HUD to make your decisions, not clarifying your thought processes to be able to write down what you actually have observed.

- Overlooking the significance of events - Hands that are played over multiple streets can provide a lot of information about how a given player thinks.

- Massive multi-tabling - Simply playing over so many tables that you cannot acquire the information needed to maximize your income from the one sitting in front of you.

Failure driven by a technical shortcoming::

- Relying too much on specific HUD stats and/or misapplying HUD information - There's more to a player's style than simple numbers, and over a short sample this information is likely to be skewed.

- Failure to appreciate contextual clues - Not looking at all the pieces of information that applies to a given situation.

- Poor understanding of game flow.

-----

OVERRELIANCE ON YOUR HUD::

Everyone with a HUD has been guilty of this at some point.

- Profiling opponents entirely via HUD stats inherently limits the information we observe about an opponent - Knowing what situations he is likely to make a given play is more useful than knowing he makes a given play 25% of the time.

This prevents us from actually describing how this given player thinks. We are unable to describe his approach to the game in anything other than the most basic terms.

FAILURE TO TAKE GOOD NOTES::

- Always ask yourself "What have I learned from this?" Make this a priority in your games. Get in the habit of asking yourself questions, be able to answer them in terms of poker tendencies.

Find the system that works for you, and be certain to record this information as it comes in. Use some kind of shorthand.

Do not make IMMEDIATE conclusions about a given player. Allow for some flexibility in a given player's approach. We're looking for trends, not absolutes.

OVERLOOKING EVENTS::

- Again, what have I learned from this hand?

Practice observing and reflecting on these observations. Don't just think, "I can't believe he called!" Think through how he might have made that decision. Is he too stubborn with top pair? Folds to threat cards when he doesn't have them?

Pay particular attention to unusual actions. Did he slowplay? Check-raise with air?

Note your play and how they respond to it. Do they C/C with mediocre hands or raise? Do they float with nothing on the flop and try to take it away on the turn?

MASS MULTITABLING::

- This forces you to standardize your decisions. Adaptive, exploitive play is the best method of earning money, and this requires you to play different lines against different players.

The value of your notes goes down sharply when you neither have the time to make them or read them.

Focus on your tables and try to acquire better reads against your opponents.

OVERRELIANCE ON SPECIFIC HUD INFO::

- The characteristic of a HUD number does not tell us about the circumstances under which that number was derived. A player's river bet % says nothing about how often he bets when the board is dry, how often he bets when the obvious draw just came in, and how often he bets when the obvious draw has just missed. HUD numbers are thus one-dimensional.

This also puts blinders onto us, preventing our development in poker thought.

MISAPPLICATION OF HUD INFO::

- This is looking at a stat and not applying it to the circumstance. A player with a 3-bet percentage of 10% doesn't have a 10% 3-bet from every position against raises from any position.

Breaking stats down further helps, but should not be considered superior to actually developing reads through observation of their tendencies.

FAILURE TO NOTE CONTEXTUAL CLUES::

- What sorts of questions should we be asking at every stage?

Gameflow: What history do we have with this player? What has happened recently with this player and how is this likely to affect his game? What trends can we postulate between these players?

Position: What are the positions of the players involved? Are there fish still to act? Are there very good players still to act? Are there aggressive players still to act?

Opponent: Does he vary his range based upon position? Is he competent, loose, tight, a station? Has he shown the ability to consider other elements than his own two cards?

Me: What reads will this Villain likely have on me? What has he seen me do - bluff, value bet aggressively, c-bet every flop? What does he desire - is he actually attempting to win money, is he trying to gamble, or just see a lot of cheap flops and have fun?

Evolution of a read: How many times has a specific habit been observed? How consistent has he been in doing this?

-----

Sample hand - the taking of notes::

200NL - Hero is 200xBB deep, SB has him covered.

Preflop: Hero raises to $7 w/ KsQs in MP, SB calls w/ AdKd

- Rather than automatically assuming he's passive because he calls here with a very strong hand, consider the reasons why he might flat here:

Does MP tend to fold to three-bets too often?
Does he want to keep in hands that he dominates?
Does he believe that the BB is a fish he'd like to have in the pot?
Is he a deceptive player?
Is he a timid player?

Flop: 9s8c5c ($16): SB checks, Hero checks

- Pretty terrible board for both players. A c-bet is unlikely to work against most holdings and will typically be getting the money in worse. Donk bets are bad.

Turn: 4h ($16): SB checks, Hero checks

- Again, no bet from Villain. Hero can call most bets with a reasonable equity. Villain also has some showdown equity with his AK, so there's no need to push Hero out of the hand.

River: Qc ($16): SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB raises to $38, Hero calls.

- If Villain had a real hand here, he'd have to lead when the flush comes in to ensure that he'd have a chance at some value.

Villain is likely at least somewhat of a handreader, being able to identify the Hero's bet as likely a queen. His line, however, is not one that would be taken by someone looking for value and therefore easily identifiable as a bluff.

What can we take from this? Villain is less likely to bluff us in the future after we've called him down with top pair on a big threat card. We should be less likely to call a C/R river in the future.

Notes: Hand Readers #8

2010-04-13T06:03:00.001-07:00

Hand Readers #8

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Balance - What is it, when do we do it?

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Balance

- is the ratio of the different segments of our range (bluffs/semibluffs/etc) in a given situation

- When we discuss balance, we are discussing the LEVEL of balance, not merely assigning a label.

i.e. - 40% bluffs, 40% semi-bluffs, 20% value

An unbalanced range is heavilly weighted in one direction or another

i.e. - 95% value bets, 5% bluffs

-----

The basic considerations

WHEN DO WE APPLY BALANCE?

- Only when we are playing against thinking opponents. If villains aren't thinking about the types of hands we can hold here, then balancing our range makes no sense.

- Metagame considerations - is villain taking notes? Responding to plays we've made in the past?

In essence:

:: Don't mess around on boards where our likely perceived range is lots of bluffs, few value hands (i.e. the 722r flop in the previous video)

:: Don't play our strong hands in such a way that villain will assign our range as heavily value, few bluffs

:: Recognize the same in Villain's play

-----

"Leveling"

- Recognizing when our opponents are thinking in a specific way and capitalizing on that

- Villain never folds :: Bet simply for value
- Villian is suspicious of bets on scare cards :: Bet aggressively for value, rarely bluff
- Villain plays back at unbalanced plays :: Play our value hands in a bluffy manner and vice versa

** Leveling is a depature from balance to exploit a weakness in your opponent's game **

-----

Balanced vs Unbalanced

- Balanced ranges don't care about the response. Unbalanced ranges prefer a specific response.

EX: We face a pot sized bet on the river. A balanced range weighted properly between value bets and bluffs does not care what we do regardless of our holding.

ALMOST ALL OPPONENTS ARE UNBALANCED - this is where hand reading plays to our advantage.

Since most of our opponents are unbalanced, we can attempt to deduce our opponent's intent and then do the opposite.

-----

Ex: An unbalanced line

400NL - Hero is 200xBB deep w/ KhKc on the button

preflop: Hero raises to $12, SB calls, BB calls

((ME: about as standard as it gets. Assuming Villain is a reasonable player, he has a fairly broad range of medium strength hands.))

Flop: 8h7d5s ($36): SB checks, BB bets $24, Hero calls, SB folds

((ME: Villain could easily have picked up a chunk of that board and still be miles behind us. We're ahead of 86/76/65 types of hands as well as draws like T9. By calling behind here our range is kept wide.))

A lot of people raise here, but there isn't much point to it. We're simply driving out those hands that are worse than ours. His calling range is beating us in many cases, and has strong equity when it isn't.

Turn: 8h7d5s7h ($84): BB checks, Hero bets $64, BB raises to $180, Hero...?

((ME: Villain showing weakness here is almost always going to induce a bet from us. Is he attempting to exploit? If our calling range includes a lot of overcards, then he can bluff here and push us off of a dangerous hand. Most of his range has not improved with that 7, so we can continue to play.))

Villain's line here is very unbalanced. He's not doing this with a whole lot of semi-bluffs and medium strength hands. His range is this situation is very heavilly weighted toward nut hands - 88/55/87/76... His goal is to build this pot and we'll be facing a big bet on the river.

** A better line

Turn: 8h7d5s7h ($84): BB bets $72, Hero...?

Villain's range is now much more open - he could still have a lot of medium strength hands in addition to his nut hands.

-----

Ex: Seizing on unbalanced lines

400NL - Hero is 120xBB deep w/ AsTs UTG

Preflop: Hero raises to $14, Button calls

((ME: Fairly straightforward. Villain on the button has a lot of small-medium pocket pairs and suited connectors/gappers in his range along with a fair number of high cards.))

Flop: Kh8s3c ($34): Hero bets $24, Button calls

((ME: extremely dry board. Villain is unlikely to have hit anything here, but we don't have much ourselves. His float could be any made hand, with a king or otherwise.))

Turn: Kh8s3cKs ($82): Hero bets $61, Button raises to $175, Hero pushes, Button folds.

((ME: Neither of us is likely to be sitting on a king when the second one comes onto the board. Villain recognizes that if he's competent and raises - however, if he actually had the king, he'd have no reason to try to blow us off the board here. His range is very unbalanced - heavy on the bluffs, thin on value bets.))

Notes: Hand Readers #7

2010-04-11T16:06:00.001-07:00

Hand Readers #7

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Inducing mistakes - Exploiting our perceived range

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- Relevence - this is only good against thinking, handreading Villains.

Obviously, bad players aren't reading our hand, therefore we aren't going to be able to exploit our perceived range... because we don't HAVE a perceived range.

- Deduce what Villain thinks we have
- From our knowledge of what he likely holds and what we hold, deduce our options

Can we bluff here? Do we have any credibility?
Can we induce a bluff?
Do we have a clear value bet? Can we exploit our genuinely strong hand?

- Identify favorable board textures.
- Beat the heck out of their bankroll

----

** Basic Considerations

- Board texture

Can we represent a lot of different hands here?
Is our value range very narrow?

722r - not much to represent
JT9tt - hits a LOT

- Opponent's tendencies and ability to read hands

Does he float a lot? Just not believe people?
Passive? Aggressive? OVERaggre ssive?

- Postion
- Our image

-----

** Ex 1 :: A wide perceived value range

400NL - Hero is on the button 120xBB deep w/ AhQs

Preflop: CO raises to $14, Hero calls

((ME: Not entirely unreasonable, though 3-betting for value against a CO raise isn't a bad plan. At the limits I play, 3-betting is very likely to fold out most of the hands you can beat against the weak-tights or get called by anything against the loose players. Not quite so true at the higher levels where you'll be called by a more balanced and effective range.))

Flop 7c6h5h ($34): CO checks, Hero bets $42

((ME: Interesting line. That's a board that isn't likely to hit the preflop raiser's range. Nor ours. It could be that he's planning a check-raise bluff. At the very least, he's not folding anything better than we have to normal action.

What is our perceived range for each action?

Bet weak - steal attempt. He could very easily float or check raise here, simply because we're not likely to show up with much. This pretty much identifies our hand

Check - Could be a lot. How are we handling a bet on the turn if it doesn't hit us? Guess?

Bet strong - Doesn't look like a steal. We could be on a genuinely strong hand, or a made hand that isn't happy to see another card such as TT. We're not giving him good odds to play back to our perceived range (medium pairs, sets, good draws) with overcards.))

Coach: Villain is C/F a lot here. The overbet makes it more likely that he's going to fold rather than float.

The texture is one that people are less likely to c-bet with the air part of their range. Weak hands are less likely to c-bet as well, as they're going to be called frequently given coordinated low cards.

Our play is also fitting in with our preflop call - this board could hit us. It's very unlikely to hit him.

Villain calling here is awkward for him - a lot of the board changes the texture dramatically. Any heart, any 3-9 will complete a draw that we could have been holding. Hero can represent most of it.

-----

** Ex 2 :: A wide perceived bluffing range

400NL - Hero is in the BB 100xBB deep w/ AdAh

Preflop: Button raises to $12, Hero calls

((ME: Button's range is very wide and Hero can either reraise or call here. In this case, we're trapping to make our hand look weaker than it actually is. I should make this play more often. ;) ))

Flop: 7h2s2c ($26): Hero checks, Button bets $24, Hero raises to $70

((ME: Did the Villain hit this? Very unlikely. Did we hit this? We didn't need to. Against a thinking player, this play could well induce a rebluff, as we're simply unlikely to be holding anything that can stand up to pressure here. C/C announces that we have something of value - overcards at the worst, or a likely pocket pair, and he can play much more accurately. If we want him to overplay his hand, now is the time to make our move. If he has a moderately strong hand like 88-JJ, we're getting paid before the overcards come. If he has a very weak hand, we can induce.))

- Same hand, why is this bad with 44?

Villain isn't going to fold a lot of pocket pairs
Even his overcards are going to have good value against us
We LOOK like we're bluffing
Are you ever comfortable on a blank turn? What's your plan for later streets?
C/C is a safer line against more "standard" players

-----

Floating v Bluffraising

** OKAY - this board is supposed to have hit us. How do we represent this best?

- The need to appear credible

What range will a call represent? A raise?
Does it matter?

- Metagame

How will this hand affect your image?
How will this limit your ability to get value/bluff in the future?
The first time you take a goofy line at a table, it probably shouldn't be with a bluff.
Take notes of times when people saw you take a goofy line

- Flexibility of the board

The dryer the board, the better to float
The wetter the board, the better to raise
How much of the deck will affect the board texture?
How would Villain expect us to play the hands we are attempting to represent?

- Stack:Pot ratio

How much pressure can we apply on later streets? (Deeper = more weight to raising)
Is there any leverage possible?

Notes: Hand Readers #6

2010-04-03T03:00:00.000-07:00

Need... more... dedication...

Hand Readers #6

----------

** Perceived ranges: What our opponent thinks we have

- This is only relevant against people who are thinking players
- When we use perceived ranges, we take advantage of the fact that we know our opponent is attempting to put us on a hand

... by misrepresenting our hand, (exploitative)
... or by playing our entire range the same. (game theory optimal, balanced)

-----

** Basic Considerations

- Board texture

Dry boards do not allow us to represent many different hands (T44 flop - what does it mean to C/R here?)

- Opponent's tendencies

- Position

- Our image

-----

** Ex 1 - Inducing bluffs

200NL, Hero is SB 200xBB deep w/ Js9c

Preflop: Hero opens to $8, BB calls

((ME: nothing unusual - a typical SB raise with a decent hand attempting to take down the blinds. Villain's range is wide here, though he's unlikely to be on a strong hand as those would tend to 3-bet in this spot to punish us for a likely steal. If this opponent can read hands, he has us on a huge range.))

Villain is average, competent regular who is doing some hand reading and has an understanding of what we're opening here. What's he defending with? Lots of aces, broadway, connectors, decent suited cards, pairs... 25-30% of hands.

Flop: Ac9d6s ($16): Hero checks, BB bets $12, Hero calls.

((ME: We've hit the flop, we're out of position, and Villain doesn't have to have an ace for his call. There's a good chance we're ahead here, and he could float with a lot of hands worse than ours. Still, our hand isn't so strong that we want to build a big pot. As the title is inducing a bluff, what is Villain going to bet here if we check to him? Probably NOT an ace as a thinking player, as he can't expect to get value that way. So any bets will likely be medium strength hands and air, while his stronger hands want to give us a chance to hit and/or attempt to steal on the turn.))

Given how wide Villain's range is, we can't really be betting for value here. He has soooo much air in this spot that he will likely be folding a good portion of his range to any bet. When we're betting for value, we're targeting a range of made hands and draws that will pay off bets. When his range isn't like that, we have to be willing to induce.

Hero underrepresents his hand here by checking. Good players expect you to bet here with most of your range. By C/C, we induce our opponent to bet by indicating a medium strength hand he can push us off.

Turn: Ac6s9dKs ($40): Hero checks, BB bets $27, Hero calls.

((ME: Again, hero checks. Why? First, that king wasn't a particularly good card for us. Draws are on the board, and he could easily have taken a stab with a KQ/KJ type of hand. Is Villain leading here with Kx? Probably not. We've already C/C on the A-high flop, and he can't be sure of his situation given the possibility that we have a weak ace. Again, his range isn't strong here - 9x, some draws, some air, and the occassional hand with an ace or a king that is playing fast.))

This card really isn't hugely in Villain's range, and he's likely to fire another barrel on it with a weak hand.

Keep in mind when taking lines such as this, you need to have a plan thought out agianst this particular Villain.

River: Ac6s9dKsTs ($94): Hero checks, BB checks

((ME: Every draw on the board just came in. We're ahead of nothing and folding to a three barrel. Villain checks, and even that is probably ahead of us on that card.))

Villain's thinking?:

Flop: When we check, Villain expects us to C/C here. We probably have something, but nothing too strong. 97, 88... we'll be C/F the turn a lot.

Turn: He's probably folding anything weaker than an ace.

River: He has an ace or better and isn't folding.

-----

** Ex 2 - Getting Value with our monsters

400NL, Hero is MP, 175xBB deep w/ 4c4h

Preflop: UTG raises to $14, Hero calls.

((ME: Standard. We're set mining here against a 110xBB stack and don't mind people coming along. Raising would be way overplaying our hand, folding would be far too weak.))

This isn't a pure set mine (it rarely is). If the board texture is right, we can make a move with a made hand.

Flop: Td6h4s ($34): UTG bets $25, Hero calls

((ME: Jackpot! The problem here is that the board is incredibly dry. There's almost no hand in his range that can take any kind of pressure except overpairs. When we C/C here, our range remains wide - we could have any pocket pair and a whole lot of tens, and possibly some air looking to take this away on the turn. Villain's range hasn't changed at all with his c-bet. He'd likely do it with 100% of his range here.))

Think about hands such as this in terms of your range. What would you do with 77? JT? KQ? How many hands would you actually raise here? If it's only the powerhouses, then slow it down.

By calling here, we're keeping our perceived range very wide. There's a lot of medium strength made hands and a few draws that will play that way.

Turn:Td6h4sKs ($84): UTG bets 64, Hero calls

((ME: An excellent card for us as it lands squarely in the middle of his range for mandatory c-betting hands. AK/KQ/KJ all just improved to a made hand. Still, he could be on something like AQ/AJ and ready to run away if we bet, as that card does have a modest chance of having hit us. We're not going away on the river, even if one of the draws comes home. They just make up such a small percentage of his range as to not be a concern.))

This is exactly the sort of card that most Villain's are going to barrel. All of his bluffs are continuing, along with most made hands.

River: Td6h4sKs4d ($212): UTG bets $155, Hero shoves.

((ME: Well, duh. Villain has put in half of his stack, we have the nuts, and he could very well have a hard time getting away. Our range is very strong, however - with few draws on the flop, there's little we could have been chasing and missed. Shoving a ten would be insanity. The very worst we show up with here is AA.))

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** Ex 3 - Introductory Rebluffing

200NL, Hero is button, 100xBB deep w/ 6h4h

Preflop: Hero raises to $7, BB calls

((ME: Nothing unusual here. Hand is weak but can hit very hard and we have position to take a lot of flops down if the blinds miss))

Villain is straightforward, nitty, predictable regular. His range isn't balanced and he isn't the best handreader. Range in this spot doesn't include a lot of suited connectors. He has a lot of small-mid pairs, broadway.

Flop: 5c2d2h ($15): BB checks, Hero bets $10, Villain raises to $25, Hero calls.

((ME: Against a player who hand reads, this announces that we do, indeed, have a real hand here. Re-reraising in this spot would leave open the possibility of the bluff. We might or might not have the overpair. By calling, we place our range as strong overcards (AK/AQ type hands) and overpairs along with a very few monsters. Calling here with absolutely nothing isn't likely to enter into his head at all, and as a result we can push most of his air off the hand on the turn with little risk - as most of his air is a solid favorite over our nearly nut-low.))

Villain is check-raising small here. He almost never has a 2 here, and he's not the sort that's going to C/R 77 for value. By C/C, we're narrowing our range sharply and his value range is very narrow compared to his bluffing range.

-----

** Ex 4 - I don't believe you, sir

400NL, Hero is button, 130xBB deep w/ 4d4h

Preflop: Hero raises to $12, SB calls

((ME: standard stuff. Our range is very wide and so is the Villain's))

Flop: AcJh2s ($28): SB checks, Hero bets $20, Villain calls

((ME: Still standard. We'd bet here with close to 100% of our range. Given we're on the button, Villain as a thinking player can call with an awful lot of hands to see what we'll do on the turn as our range is made up of a LOT of missed hands and a few that actually hit.))

Turn: AcJh2s5s ($68): SB checks, Hero bets $48, SB raise to $158, Hero calls.

((ME: Ranges. Villain puts us on a very wide one, so he doesn't need anything to put us to the test here. We could be weak, or simply continuing to barrel in the face of no evident resistance. Villain's range is polarized. He's unlikely to check raise with a marginal made hand with showdown value here. Most likely, he is either on a reasonably strong ace or air. Air makes up a larger percentage of his hands than an ace does after he calls OOP.))

Hero's hand really doesn't have any showdown value against Villain's flop calling range, so the turn is a semibluff (we're good on a 3/4 most of the time). Hero is trying to represent a value range that covers most aces.

If Villain's play is for value, he's almost always going to shove the river. We call when we hit our 6 outer and fold otherwise.

If his play is a bluff, he's almost always check/folding the river. It's simply not likely that we're going to fold getting 2:1 with any decent made hand as would be needed (theoretically) to call on the turn.

River: AcJh2s5sJc ($344): SB checks, Hero shoves, SB folds.

((ME: Going to showdown? No thanks. We called on the turn planning to shove if it was checked to us on the river to push out hands like 66/77 that might choose to turn themselves into a bluff that still happens to beat us. Villain has to put us on a stronger range after we call the C/R, and gets rid of his bluffs and possibly weaker made hands. The J isn't a threat - he's not C/R on the turn w/ a jack very often.))

Notes: Hand Reading #5

2010-03-30T02:25:00.001-07:00

Hand Readers #5

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Semi-bluffing on the turn

-----

** Why do we semibluff?

- We win more pots where a check handcuffs our options

Rarely will you check the turn with a monster, therefore a check limits your range to a marginal showdown hand or a draw.

- It protects our value betting range

- It protects our continuation bets

-----

** Basic Considerations

- Board texture

Opponents response to our play will clarify his range, but our bet does not define our hand well for him on a wet board (which is when we're most likely to bet, anyway)

- Opponent's tendencies

Does he call with any made hand? With draws? When does he get aggressive?

Does he actually read hands at all?

- Position

Not as critical as you might think. Remember - checking here defines your hand as of moderate strength. Taking a free card is therefore less valuable.

When OOP, you almost never want to check, as you're almost required to C/F a draw to any real bet.

- Our image

How much can we get away with? Do my opponent's view me as tight, bluffy, tough?

- Our equity / Fold equity

Give your opponent a range and have a good idea as to how much equity and fold equity we have in the hand.

Use this to map out the profitability of a bet

-----

** Example 1 - Basic

400NL - Hero is UTG, 100xBB stacks with KhQc

Preflop: Hero raises to $14, Button calls

((ME: Should be a standard raise here w/ KQo, nothing fancy to worry about. The button's call is a wide range unless some kind of read is given - any pair, any two broadway, suited aces, some suited connectors. It's unlikely to be a monster, and most notably it isn't likely to be AK, reducing our chance of being dominated in this spot if we hit top pair.))

Read is that the button is TAGgy, his button range is still fairly wide

Flop: Th6c2s ($34): Hero bet $26, Button calls

((ME: Not the type of board that's going to hit anyone particularly hard. We're very likely to get floated on this board by any pair and a lot of overcard hands. The c-bet is still good, but we're expecting to have to fire twice, whether we hit or we don't.

Villain's call here is meaningless. With no draws on the board, he could very easily be making this play just to see if we'll keep firing.))

Villain isn't going to have many great hands, but a lot of his range is going to continue. The only hard hits on this flop are sets. We can expect to see a lot of floats, a lot of weak made hands.

Turn: ($86) Jh: Hero bets $70, Button ?

((ME: Hero's hand just improved to an OESD w/ overcards. If Villain has a pair, Hero has 14 outs to the best hand for 28%, and Villain will have a difficult time calling another bet w/ something such as 77. The jack doesn't hit a lot of hands that were chasing at this point.))

As Villain isn't an ultradonk, the situation is such that this card is much better for our range. He either has a monster or a marginal hand here - and the marginal hands are going to have a difficult time continuing in the face of multiple bets. With strong fold equity here and some good equity to hit on the river, another barrel is called for.

-----

** Example 2 - Hybrid bets

400NL - Hero is on the button, 100xBB stacks with Jc8c

Preflop: Hero raises to $12, SB calls

((ME: First in on the button with a suited gapper, perfectly reasonable to open here. In the absence of a read, SB is likely to have a good, not great hand - he's certainly stronger than in the previous example. Suited connectors only on the high end with fewer gappers, a lot of pairs, and generally good suited broadway. He can't expect to get a lot of value against us OOP with drawing hands - he has multiple ways in which he thinks he can win.))

SB is on a half stack, both this and his play tends to indicate more of a fishy player.

Flop Qc8s2c ($28): SB checks, Hero bets $20, SB calls

((ME: middle pair and a flush draw is a strong hand. If Villain has top pair, we have 14 outs twice for about a 50-50, many of which he won't see as hitting us and therefore allowing us to put a lot of money in the pot. Conversely, he's not going to have a lot of drawing hands on this flop. He'll continue here with a queen, a pocket pair in the 99+ range, sets, and flush draws - and we're ahead of flush draws right now.))

We have a lot of equity here. We don't mind getting a raise, call, or fold in response to our action, so BET.

After the call, what does he have? Any queen, a floating A-high, some gutshots (JT, J9) flush draws, any made hand for someone of this type.

Turn 5s ($68): SB checks, Hero bets $48, SB ?

((ME: Villain is on a range. Continuing to fire here should push out non-queen hands that are ahead of us (99-JJ) and possibly some flush draws that still have equity against us. A queen will stick around, and we're not paying off on the river unless we improve.))

Against most hands we're on 14 outs - unless Villain has a monster, we have about 1/3rd equity here. Betting here lets us play the river well.

-----

** Example 3 - Heavy on the bluff, some outs...

400NL - Hero in CO, 110xBB stacks w/ Tc8c

Preflop: UTG limps, Hero raises to $21, button calls, UTG calls

((ME: Nothing too terrible about the isolation attempt. The button calling isn't ideal, but we can hit a lot of sneaky hands and may be able to push him off when he misses.))

Button is competent LAG, has a pretty reasonable range in this spot - but again, he isn't likely to have a monster. AK/AQ are unlikely.

Flop: KcKh3d ($69): UTG checks, Hero bets $34, Button calls, UTG folds

((ME: c-betting by default on an extremely dry board. Villain's hands are restricted to marginal and monster here. The button's call could be any pocket pair, any king. There's no reason to bet a lot here, as the smaller amount will define the situation.))

Most of Villain's range here is pocket pairs. He'll have a very few kings - KTs, KJs, KQ types.

Turn: 7c ($137): Hero bets $82, button ?

((ME: Hero just picked up 9 outs. Against a made hand, we're never paying off on the river - our ten high just isn't going to cut it - but if the club comes we stand to get paid off handsomely if Villain is slowplaying something like KQ or even a medium pocket pair. We're almost never getting raised in this spot - The absolute dryness means his most likely means of getting paid is to get a modest bet in on the river and hope we're on something like TT against his KQ and can't lay it down.))

Most of Villain's hands are very marginal here - medium strength pocket pairs may continue, but we've shown a lot of strength here. We should have a good amount of fold equity in this spot, and can still win even against some monsters.

-----

** Example 4 - Pressuring an inelastic range

400NL - Hero is button, 150xBB stack w/ 9c7c

Preflop: UTG raises to $12, Hero calls

((ME: Calling in position with a hand that can hit the board hard. Perfectly reasonable. Villian is listed as somewhat competent, so he can probably put us on the range that we did for earlier Villains calling out preflop raises.))

Flop: AdTs2c ($30): UTG checks, Hero bets $22, UTG calls.

((ME: Huh? No c-bet is definitely odd here. What is Villain likely to hold? Slowplaying a monster is a possibility, but the C/C is unlikely to get multiple streets of value and seems rather transparent. Medium strength hands - KT/QT/KK/QQ/JJ - seem the most intuitively reasonable. He isn't willing to fold, because our bet doesn't have to be an ace by any stretch of the imagination, and if he leads with those hands and gets called, he's almost always behind.))

Turn 8d ($74): UTG checks, Hero bets $64, UTG ?

((ME: Given the narrowness of a range that we're putting Villain on, we continue to rep the ace once we've picked up some extra outs on the turn. J/6 rivers are going to completely flummox him, as he won't expect us to be hitting that hand. Of course, we're not putting a penny in on the river if we miss. Villain will be under a lot of pressure without an ace, and while he's unlikely to fold a big pair, he has to give it some consideration.))

One and done here with a no equity hand on the initial flop is terrible, as Villain is almost NEVER folding unless he's on something like 33. And even then he's probably taking a shot at it. The fact that the turn actually gives us some equity is pure bonus, especially as there are a lot of different draws that show up on the turn (flushes and straights)

Villain's C/C on the turn is limited to Ax calls here and he's folding almost everything else. If we hit on the river, we're overshoving. If we miss, we let it go.

-----

** Example 5 - Deciding not to semibluff

200NL - Hero is BB, 100xBB stack w/ 8d5d

Preflop: SB limps, Hero raises to $8, SB calls.

((ME: Trying to take this away from a very weak play by the SB, or to build up a pot that he'll take on the flop in the likely case that Villain misses. Nothing significant.))

Villian's play is certainly a weak play. He's probably on a very wide range.

Flop: KdQc4d ($16): SB checks, Hero bets $12, Villain calls

((ME: Hero has a flush draw. What does Villain have? A better flush draw, JT for the straight draw, any king or queen, or a set of 4s. He's unlikely to call with small pairs here in the face of two big overcards and our preflop aggression

Planning ahead for the turn - is Villain ever folding a K or Q in this situation? Possibly a queen to heavy aggression, but not likely. The majority of hands that he can call with on the flop have showdown value and all of them are ahead of us. All we have going for us right now is the flush draw - we have no showdown value unless the flush comes in.))

Turn: 6s ($40): SB checks, Hero bets $26, SB ?

((ME: Don't like it. As mentioned before, there really isn't anything we can get Villain to fold that called the flop. Here's a spot where taking the free card is the choice.))

Pot equity and Fold equity are both low in this situation against his range. No reason to be putting more money into the pot. Villain has SOMETHING, and that something is ahead of us. As the only way we can win money is to hit our hand, we're being offered a free card, and any hit is diguised allowing us to gain value on the river, check it through and take the zero EV play on the turn that is superior to the negative EV that any other play would be.

Spotting a tell?

2010-03-20T13:18:00.000-07:00

I find it interesting that I have sat down three times to write an essay on poker basics, and have thus far been unable to get past the third paragraph.

My first inclination on this is that it would indicate that I have a lot of concepts thrown around in my brain in a jumble, without a coherent system applied to them.

It would certainly explain why I've been struggling.

The essay will be written. This clutter will be undone. A structure will be imposed one way or another.

Back to basics

2010-03-19T21:11:00.000-07:00

This is insane. This is terrible. This is embarrassing.

I cannot believe I am down 20 buyins this month. I cannot believe that my all-in equity is negative. I cannot believe that I am playing this badly.

Yes, I'm tilted and I know it. I'm not playing any more tonight, and I'm not playing tomorrow.

Tomorrow is dedicated entirely to retooling.

We're going back to rock solid basics. Strong hands, keep pots small when I don't have a big hand, play in position.

I simply attempt to apply way too much fancy play to what is ultimately a fairly straightforward game at the lower limits. Until I get over myself, I'm just going to keep spewing money.

Disgusted with myself. Arrrrgh.

Hand Readers #4

2010-03-19T19:45:00.000-07:00

Hand Readers #4

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Bluffs: Board textures and cards to bluff on. Our perceived range.

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** Why do we double barrel bluff?

- Win pots where a check handcuffs your options
- Protect your value betting range
- Protect your continuation bets

When you're bluffing, it is important to figure out whether you can push your opponent off with a turn bet - and if not, with a turn and a river bet.

-----

** Basic Considerations:

- Board texture

Some textures lend themselves to 1, 2, and 3-barreling

- Villain's tendencies

Does he call loosely? See monsters under the bed?
Does he read hands well?

- Our image

Have we been caught bluffing?
Did they see us get caught?
Are we firing all the time?
Have we just won a big pot? Lost one?

- Our equity

What cards improve our range on the turn?
What cards hit Villain's likely range?

-----

** Wildcards:

Wildcards are cards that improve your range and rarely theirs:

ex: 742r - Turn K/A
ex: T54r - Turn 9/J/Q/K/A

Observe what they lead with, what they C/C a flop with and take notes

You want to bet to limit your opponent's range to one pair hands, as one pair hands lead to tough decisions, while draws either have a very strong hand or an easy fold.

-----

** Board Texture

- One and done types:

Highly coordinated

* Villain is likely to have both showdown value and improvement equity. They simply aren't likely to give up for one or two bets.

ex: JT8tt - give up nearly always if called
ex: K98tt - give up often if called

When Villain C/C on this flop, it defines his range - he isn't doing this with a weak underpair. HE HAS HIT THE BOARD unless he's a complete tool.

- Two- and Three-barrel boards

Paint+rags

ex: K42r

Barrel the turn here often - particularly any hand 9 or higher, all of which are very likely to hit our hand. When Villain C/C this flop, he has a lot of pairs between 55-QQ.

The cards that he is calling on this board aren't improving much here. He's just hoping to hold up, assuming he's good in the first place.

- Bomb's Away!

When the board texture evolves favorably for you and extremely unfavorably for your opponent:

ex: Kh4c2d - turn Jh - river Ah

Are there critical cards that cannot be in his range? are they likely to be in yours?

ex: Ts9s4s - turn 3d - river 5s

How much is your opponent's range limited to weak, one pair hands?

Hand Readers #3

2010-03-16T15:36:00.001-07:00

Hand Readers #3

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Emphasis this episode - double barreling, betting the turn

What hands are we representing, what hands do we think our Villain has?

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What is Double Barreling?

- Betting the turn for various purposes after having c-bet the flop as the PFR. Capitalizing on your perceived range to achieve...

Value - substantially ahead of his range
Semibluff - may or may not be behind in equity, 8-20 outs
Bluff - 5 or fewer outs, complete air

- Double barreling is more of an issue when you're OOP, as you have less overall control in the hand.

-----

((As before, examples are done by myself first, looking at each street and attempting to follow the thinking pattern given in episode 1))

ex 1 - Value primer

200NL
Hero in MP w/ AsAc 150xBB deep

Preflop: Hero raises to $7, SB calls $6

((ME - SB has a double stack, so the immediate assumption is that he is a fairly decent player. The lack of a three-bet sharply reduces the chances that he's on a monster here. Small-medium pocket pairs and connectors make up a significant portion of his range. He wants to hit hard or get out, and strong reverse implied odds aren't something he wants to deal with this deep.))

COACHES - No real reads on this player beyond his stack size. The typical unknown will have a fairly wide range.

Flop: K82r ($16): SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12

((ME - Very dry board. Villain is unlikely to have hit this hard. Conversely, neither are we. If we're ahead, we're way ahead. If we're behind, we're way behind.

The c-bet is fairly standard here. We can expect to be called by a wide range of pocket pairs and any hand with a king or an eight. Checking cannot really benefit us here, as the hands that we'll fold out here are very unlikely to pay us off anyway unless the guy is a total fish, which I'm not assuming from what's observed. The plan is to continue to bet on the turn if we're called, as there really isn't a card that's going to scare us away.))

COACHES - Standard c-bet here. Lots of hands that will continue that have very bad equity against us.

Turn: K82Ttt ($40): SB checks, Hero bets $31, SB calls $31

((ME - A good card for us, making the board wetter by adding some draws that might have given him reason to keep playing if he were on a float. Kings are still calling in this spot, along with two diamond+pair hands.

Villain's C/C on two streets has limited his range down quite a bit. AK (unlikely)/KQ/KJ are still here, along with 9d8d and related hands. Small pocket pairs are probably gone, though something like JJ/QQ could well continue. He could also have either of the lower sets.))

COACHES - No reason to slow down here. The ten didn't particularly affect the board in a negative manner. Many hands that called us on the flop are still going to tag along here. Our value range here includes any decent king and sets against unknowns.

Think about the lines you're taking and the hands you're betting against. If you're getting called by half of his range worse than yours, that's a good spot to consider it for value.

- Considerations

* Identify Your Opponent - donks will be calling with weaker/wider ranges, aggressive players will be betting and bluffing more

* Estimate his capabilities - does this guy float? Bluff raise dry flops? Check/raise with a weak top pair?

* How heavy is Villain's range with draws?

* Are we in position or out of position? This determines how much we can control the pot.

* Multiple street plans. If our goal in the plan is to bluff and get him to fold better hands, we need to know what cards we'll bluff on the turn, what cards we'll bluff on the river.

-----

ex 2 - Value in terms of equity

200NL
Hero in MP w/ ATo, 100xBB deep

Preflop: Hero raises to $7, SB calls.

((ME - Fairly standard. SB is sitting at 95xBB without rebuying, this implies a more fishy type/passive player. Correspondingly, his range is very wide here and includes some fairly strong hands. Any pair, any two broadway, any suited ace, probably a lot of random suited cards and connectors))

COACHES - Villain is loose, somewhat spazzy, not a thinking player, passive.

Flop: J82tt ($16): SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12

((ME - A reasonable flop. There's some connectivity at the top end and a potential flush draw. Villain is unlikely to fold here with any jack, any 8, T9/QT/97 gutshots, and most pocket pairs simply because we're not likely to have squarely hit this board.

Our plan here is to pick up the dead money in the middle against those hands that are likely to fold here. 33, 44, A6s... When we're called, Villain is either on a draw or has a J/8 most of the time. Draws and made hands are fairly even here, so we can continue when our hand improves (J/T turns) or a brick comes, but check behind when something that hits one of the obvious draws comes down (Q, 7, club). Against a player that is more aware, we'd tend to bet more on the scare cards. Against this likely fish, he's not going to know enough to be afraid.))

COACHES - We need to think in terms of equity here. What kind of equity do we have against each type of hand that might call us?

Against random Jack: we have 3 outs and possibly a backdoor. 16%
Against a flush draw: he has 9-15 outs, depending on overcards. 45-60%
Against an eight or a pocket pair below tens: we have 6 outs. 25%
Against a straight draw: he has 11 outs (8 + pair outs). 55%
Against overcards, he has 6 outs. 75%

An alternate plan here is to check behind and lead the turn.

Turn: J82Ttt ($40): SB checks, Hero bets $31, SB calls $31

((ME - Our hand improved and we now have some showdown value, but we still aren't hugely strong. The bet here is for value against the drawing portion of his range. Against any draw we have very strong equity.))

COACH - Villain's hand range has narrowed here. He called a bet on the flop, which would indicate that he feels he has some kind of equity here. The straight and flush draws are still hanging around, but so are the jacks. Right now the hands that we're ahead of outnumber those we're behind, so betting now is the correct play.

River: J82T8tt ($102): SB checks, Hero checks.

((ME - What is calling here? Any J, any straight/set/two pair hand. Are tens calling? 99? Maybe, but most of his range that will call a bet here is ahead of us so we can't bet for value. We also can't bluff, as he's not folding anything we beat.))

COACH - Bad card for us. A lot of weaker hands passed us, and those that are very weak can't call a bet. Just see the showdown.

-----

ex 3 - Thin value v Weaker made hands

200NL
Hero has QhQd in MP 100xBB deep

Preflop: Hero raises to $7, SB calls

((ME - once again, standard. Villain's stack is slightly over the buyin, so there's little to be had there. A standard range of pocket pairs, broadway as strong as AQ, and suited cards and connectors))

Flop: J72r ($16): SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls.

((ME - c-bet is standard for value. What's our plan? If he calls, we can limit his range to any jack, a lot of medium pocket pairs, and a scattering of gutshots. Most of his range is made up of made hands here, as there's essentially no draws. This means we can continue aggression for value on most turn cards and expect another call))

Turn: J72Ktt ($40): SB checks, Hero bets $34, SB calls $34

((ME - how does that card change the board? Not all that much, really. Villain isn't likely to fold a jack here as that king didn't automatically hit us, though he may ditch his 55/66 hands. We're now behind KJ/KQ hands, ahead of any jack or draw. Villain may also have picked up the flush draw. We should be able to value bet thin on the river.))

COACHES - We're going to assume a competent opponent here.

- We raise in MP, he calls in SB. The range I gave him is fairly accurate.
- He check/calls on the flop. Typically, this is a one pair hand. A jack, a seven, 88/99/TT. Sometimes a set.
- The turn is a good card for us against this opponent, BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE THE KIND OF CARD WE WOULD BARREL. So he's not going to go away with his weaker made hands - those we can beat.

The wider we can expand our bluffing range, the wider we can expand our value betting range.

-----

ex 4 - Value in the form of a Check

200NL
Hero has 99 in the BB 140xBB

Preflop: Button limps, Hero raises to $10, Button calls

((ME - Standard. Our hand is well ahead of the range of a button limper. This play indicates a fairly weak player most of the time. He's likely to be sitting on smaller pocket pairs, weak aces, and a lot of suited connectors that he wants to see a flop with cheaply.))

Flop: 873r ($21): Hero bets $15, Button calls $15

((ME - We have a small overpair here, but this flop does hit a significant portion of Villain's range. His overcard hands have good equity against us and we'd like to knock him out or charge him to see a turn, smaller pairs that don't have a set are likely to call simply because it doesn't look like the type of flop we'll hit given our action. Obviously sets, two pairs, and straight draws aren't going anywhere. There are more hands behind us than are ahead of us, and a lot of turns we can continue aggression on.))

Turn: 873Att ($51): Hero checks, Button bets $28, Hero calls $28.

((ME - The ace is an obvious threat card and one that hits our range squarely. If we bet here, Villain is almost certain to fold a huge portion of his range. All of those smaller pairs go away, as do his overcard hands that have to assume they're drawing very thin. Hero checking here is inducing, trying to draw out a bluff from the button by implying that we're afraid of the ace... but Villain's range doesn't include a whole lot of aces here. With no flush draw on the flop, his Axs range is very small.))

River: 873A3 ($107): Hero checks, Button bets $44, Hero calls $44.

((ME - Same as before. Villain's betting range is made up almost entirely of hands we beat here, but those hands that will call a bet are generally ahead of us - A8s and such. Check/Calling here keeps the money going in while we're ahead while minimizing the amount lost when Villain did spike a set or bigger two pair.))

COACHES - Villain's play is definitely on the weak side, and he's likely to be in the range I assign him. He's fairly loose and spazzy sometimes.

On the flop, Villain has a lot of weaker hands that will call us - a lot of overcard and weak one pair hands. Given his looseness, he may try and hit the lottery.

On the turn, we discard the vision of the competent opponent here as we know our Villain is not. If we bet here, he's thinking in terms of the absolute strength of his hand, which just plummeted over the edge unless he hit the ace. Given his spazzy nature, allowing Villain to make the mistake is the play of choice. Yes, he'll call the flop with some aces, but a big chunk of his range is NOT aces.

Hand Readers #2

2010-03-15T19:40:00.000-07:00

Hand Readers #2

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Review: Hand Reading allows us to maximize the value we get from our hands and play the top and bottom of our range better.

Using a defined thought process prevents us from going onto auto-pilot while we play.

-----

Hand examples (my analysis comes before anything from the coaches)

** AQs UTG 1/2 - 120xBB deep, Villain is LAG

Preflop - Hero raises to $12, Button (LAG) calls

ME - Preflop raise is standard, though I'm surprised at the 6xBB open. Villain's call is a very wide range here, given he is loose. Any pocket pair (though weighted to the lower ones), suited aces, suited connectors, two broadway. We can't limit him very much except that he's unlikely to have complete trash.

Ah, there were two posters. That explains the bet.

COACHES - Villain seemed semi-competent, but loose, so not a complete spaztard. His range is very wide here.

FLop ($27) Q64tt - Hero bets $24, Villain raises to $58, Hero calls $34

ME - Top pair top kicker on a fairly dry board means we likely have the best hand here. We're behind 66, 44, and some unlikely hands (QQ+, 64). There aren't a huge number of draws, either.

Our bet here is for value, hoping to extract from a fairly wide range of pairs (77-JJ) and worse queens. Given Villain's loose nature, he may well call us with air, hoping to take it away on favorable turns.

The slightly-over-minraise response is a slight surprise, but certainly not enough to push us off of our hand. Given Villain's style, this could easily be a complete bluff designed to push us off of our hand if we missed the flop. Our plan here is to call and give Villain the rope needed to hang himself on later streets.

COACHES - No real semi-bluffs here. Hero's bet isn't optimal because the board is so dry.

Turn ($143) J - Hero checks, Villain checks.

ME - Give the aggro Villain a chance to try and buy the pot from us, as there's only a little over a pot left in his stack. Any bet will be called here. There's little risk in the check - Villain is very unlikely to be on a draw.

Villain checking behind isn't entirely surprising. With only a pot bet left to go and position, he can get it all in on the river if he thinks he is best. Just as he's unlikely to be on a draw, so are we.

COACHES - Hero froze up here.

River ($143) Q - Hero checks

ME - Once again, let the Villain have his rope. What might he have here?

1) A queen. He's betting and we're putting it in.
2) A boat (QJ, 66, 44, JJ). He's betting, and we're putting it in.
3) A bluff. He may bet and we'll put it in.
4) A pair 77-TT. He's happy to see a free showdown, but may allow his aggression to get the better of him. He certainly isn't calling a significant bet.

Against most of his range, we're best off check-shoving here.

COACHES - Apparently my thought process is that of the Hero... which isn't the best. Check-raising the river here is too unlikely to work. Villain is more likely to simply check behind here unless he has a very big hand, as he gave up any bluff equity on the turn.

- Postmortem considerations -

Board texture and development: The board is a largely disconnected rainbow. There are few logical draws or bluff cards. His value range is very limited - queens, sets. Most players in this range won't raise with top pair.

We're OOP: Our hand is much more face up than his is. We aren't calling his raise with air. If he's a decent player, he'll be putting us at worst on a good pocket pair, and more likely on a queen or better.

Exploitability: Can we continue to get value when we bet/call the flop? Are we check/folding TPTK on the turn?

You cannot play your hand in the dark and hope to be successful in the long run.

- How might we play this same hand vs a fish?
His range: Villain's hand is much wider in this circumstances, so he has more weak queens that have hit this board that we can bet against for value. He's also going to make spaz bluffs against us more often

We're OOP: Fish aren't thinking about what cards we have, so our perceived range is... anything. We can stack off lighter in this situation

** AJs UTG at 2/4 150xBB deep

Preflop: Hero raises to $14, MP (100xBB) calls, BB (150xBB) calls

ME - Once again, a fairly standard raise on our part. No specific information is given to me about the players at the table, so I'll try to extrapolate given the little info we have - stack sizes and preflop actions.

MP is slightly below a full buyin, so he isn't rebuying when he dips. He also just called a preflop raise. While the latter isn't an uncommon thing, it implies that he isn't on a monster hand most of the time. MP is likely somewhat passive. I expect to see a lot of pocket pairs and connectors here, and some suited aces and broadway.

BB is at a buyin and a half. Just on this, I'm going to give more credit to him. The absence of a squeeze indicates that he's perfectly fine playing multiway, so once again I'm not expecting a monster but rather a drawing hand - small-medium pocket pairs, connectors and suited aces. I'm not expecting many broadway here, as he'd prefer to play those heads up.

COACHES - No real read on MP, though he seems fishy from avatar and stack size.

Flop: J85r ($44) - Hero bets $33, MP raises to $96, BB folds, Hero raises to $160, MP calls $64.

ME - There are a lot of straight draws and top pair/second pair hands on this flop for the Villains to hit. There's also set possibilities in 88 and 55. Hero is ahead most of the time here so the initial bet is for value, expecting to be called by a lot of worse hands. Hero will likely be continuing to bet on most turns (possibly excepting a Q).

The raise by MP throws that off. My passive assumption gets thrown for a loop here as he doesn't make a small raise but rather a fairly substantial one. What can he have here?

A set (88, 55)
Top pair (AJ-J9)
Two pair (J8)
A straight draw semi-bluff (76, T9)

Top pair is unlikely to raise us in this spot, so the question is whether or not our equity against the drawing hands makes up for that we lose against the hands that have us crushed.

Pot odds: about 2:1
v semi-bluffs: 1:2
v sets: nearly dead

Hero opts to reraise here. This is for value against a semi-bluff hand, though he isn't betting nearly enough to charge their draw as Villain is getting nearly 5:1.

COACHES - The raise on the flop is actually fairly likely to be a top pair type of hand here against a fish, who will tend to slowplay his monsters and not bluff with nothing. Hero's bet is designed to get more money in the pot and make for an easy shove on the turn.

Turn: T, giving Hero nut flush draw ($364): Hero pushes.

ME - Given the size of the pot, Villain can't really get away from a made hand. The bad equity of a straight draw here may force him to fold... but he's really committed.

- Considerations -

Board texture: This is a board that hits a wide range. Any Q, 9, 7 and 6 will dramatically change the texture, while K, 8 will modestly alter it.

OOP: Again, more difficult for us to control the action... though with all the action on the flop, that's already dealt with.

- Playing this vs a TAG?

Board texture: His raises here are a lot more polarized. He's either on a very strong range, or he's on a semi-bluff/bluff. There won't be a lot of QJ raises.

OOP: Much more difficult for us to get value here. Good players are much more likely to bluff when we show weakness and the board texture goes to crap.

-----

TAGs

- Starting hand selection has greater hot/cold equity.
- Tend to pay off less easily
- More value comes from inducing bluffs
- Perception of your range is paramount both for inducing bad bluffs and calls

Fish

- Will improve to weak made hands and can be value towned
- More passive postflop, harder to induce bluffs
- We can more easily dictate pot size

Hand Reading #1 - repeated

2010-03-15T17:02:00.000-07:00

Hand Readers #1

----------

Why a video on Hand Reading?

- It's one of the most important skills in NLHE.

- It's one of the most efficient abilities. Improving your skill will quickly improve your results.

- It isn't just knowing what they have, it's knowing what to do against it.

-----

Fundamental Theorem of Poker

- Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.

- Poker is a game of unknowns. The unknown information is your opponents' cards.

- Another unknown is what your opponent will do.

-----

Basic Handreading Procedure

- Identify your opponent (type)
- Construct a preflop hand range
- Note actions so far in the hand
- Given our holding, what action do we desire?
- How will he respond to our actions?
- Construct a multi-street plan

GET AWAY FROM AUTO-PILOT

-----

Identifying your opponent::

- Use what you know:
HEM stats
Table observations/notes
Names / Avatars
Iron Man medals / Star status
Stack sizes

- Construct a basic framework of your opponent if possible

- Be wary of assuming too much

-----

Construct a preflop hand range::

- Attempt to emulate your opponent's thought process

** Use the observed information
Is he open limping? on the button?
Minraising?
Massively overbetting the pot?

** For more skilled players, be willing to widen their ranges
How positionally aware is he?
How equity aware is he?
Is he attempting to play pots with the fish?
Does he recognize your isolation attempts?

- You should have a basic template of his range at this point.
Be aware if his range is wide in any given situation: ex. TAG calling in postion as opposed to a TAG OOP.

-----

Note actions, narrow his range::

From the preflop range, you narrow down with every action.

** Observe the board texture
** Reflect on the range you created
** What happens on the flop / this street?
** Be wary of being overwhelmingly persuaded by new information.
Keep everything in consideration and be sure the entirety is coherent

ex: JJ in CO at 2/4

UTG (340) limps, Hero raises to $18, UTG calls

((Villain tends to limp speculative hands, small pairs and suited connectors))

Flop (42): A93tt - Villain checks, Hero checks

((Given his range, we're way ahead unless he's really smacked this flop with 33. He typically does not have Ax UTG. His check here is exactly what we expect him to do.

Why do we check? We have really good pot equity against him, but we also have really good fold equity against him. We don't want him to fold when we're way ahead of him here. If he folds, he's making the correct decision. We want him to pick up a draw or a pair on the turn.))

Turn (42): T - Villain bets 32, Hero calls

((This is a good card for us, as it gives outs to a lot of his range. We would bet here if Villain had not.

We call here because if we raise we may chase out his weaker range. We want to give him the chance to bet on the river with weaker hands and missed draws. This also implies that we're weak, which should increase his chances of bluffing at us.))

River (106): A - Villain bets 100, Hero calls

((Again, good card for us. This doesn't complete any draws and counterfeits any two pair hands that had pushed ahead of us (i.e. T9s). If he had an ace, we were behind anyway and need to alter our range on him preflop))

-----

What action do we desire from our opponent?::

** What are we trying to accomplish?
- Get called? (Value bet)
- Induce a fold? (Bluff or pick up the dead money)
- Something else?

** Be wary of flawed goals:
See where you stand
Pot control

-----

How will he respond to our actions?::

** We know what we want. How do we induce it?

** Consider all options - not just bet v check, but also bet sizing
Will he call half pot but fold to pot?
Will he fold if facing a bet, but bluff if checked to?

** Keep his range in mind throughout

** How will Villain perceive our range?

ex: JTs in the SB at 2/4

Preflop: Hero raises to 12, BB calls.

((Villain is a tough player at these limits. He is very capable of showing up with multi-barrel bluffs. Against a player like this, who is capable of applying a lot of pressure, the best way to get value from a strong hand may be to pretend you hand is weak.

His range here is any two broadway, all kinds of connectors, a lot of pairs...))

Flop: 953tt (24): Hero has flush draw and leads for 16, BB calls.

((Not surprising, as we'd be leading with nearly any two here on an uncoordinated board, so Villain will likely call us with almost anything that he'd have called preflop.))

Turn: A (56): Completes Hero's flush. Hero bets 51, Villain raises to 166, Hero calls.

((This is an ideal bluff card for Villain, as a lot of our range cannot call, and a lot of that which can is modest made hands and flush draws.

Hero does not want to bet here, as it will prevent the aggressive BB from betting on the river and take him off of his bluffs and maybe even get a fold from modestly strong made hands.))

River 9: Hero checks, Villain shoves, Hero calls.

-----

Construct a multi-street plan::

- Keep in mind our goal for the hand and our evolving knowledge of Villain's hand range and, if applicable, his perception of our range.

- For value bets:
How many streets of value are possible?
On what streets can we expect to get them? (against draws, you have to bet before the river)

- For bluffs:
Will board development permit a multi-street bluff?
what boards are bad for two- and three-street bluffs.
If called on the flop, what percentage of turns will we fire? What percentage of river cards will we fire again?

- Our opponents are mostly playing reactive, street-by-street poker. Plan for the whole hand.

ex: 2 streets of value with a marginal hand
T8s on button at .50/1

Preflop: Hero raises to 3, SB calls

((Villain is loose))

Flop: T65tt (7): SB checks, Hero bets 5.5, SB calls

((Villain's range includes a lot of pocket pairs and lot of decent draws in this spot - either the flush draw or straight draw are both possibilities. He could also have a ten or a hand like 76 that he isn't willing to give up yet.

Hero's bet is very much for value here. He's getting called by a lot of hands that are behind.))

Turn: K (18): SB checks, Hero bets 13, SB calls

((Villain doesn't have a lot of kings in his range in this spot. If we were ahead preflop, then we're still ahead here and we're going to extract from his draws in this spot.))

River: 5 (44): SB checks, Hero checks

((What are we getting value from here? Not a whole lot. If Villain was calling us with a made hand, he's probably ahead of us or we're chopping. Villain can't call with a missed draw.))

The Return

2010-03-13T16:55:00.001-08:00

I haven't posted on the blog in a couple of months. It wasn't a decision I made, I just allowed things to slide.

It wasn't the best non-decision I've ever not made.

During this time frame, my cash game has been up and down like a sine wave. My bankroll on FTP has peaked at around $530 on a weekly basis, only to drop down to $420 or so, then get built back up slowly again.

The pattern seems evident:

- I get my head straight and grind, building up several buyins at $10 Rush.
- I reach the 20 buyin mark for $25 Rush and move up.
- I receive a bad beat or two, or possibly a cooler.
- Rather than shrugging it off, I struggle. I start making moves that have little chance of succeeding. I spew my way back down to the mid-$400 range.
- I continue to tilt until I step back and steady myself.
- I return to stage one.

Now, I can't prevent myself from suffering bad beats and coolers. Those are a stock part of the poker experience. Intellectually, I know these balance out over the long run.

What I can do is control my mental state. I need to evalutate my mental state honestly after every major pot, good or bad. Level it off if needed - neither too high nor too low. And if I am unable to do that, I need to hit the "Sit out next hand" button immediately.

Video reviews to return effective immediately. I'm now participating in Mt. Robusto over at DC, which means I have some that I specifically need to watch. The current series is "Hand Reading".

WWJTD #8

2010-01-08T19:25:00.001-08:00

WWJTD #8

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My answers

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#1 - Call. Don't know anything about the player except that he's a short stack. Better than 4:1 on a call with a hand that can hit VERY hard and is good multiway if the CO comes along. 3-betting is probably too aggro for this spot

#2 - I have a flush draw and overs on a board that has probably hit no one. I'm behind now, but have between 9-15 outs against anything that isn't a bigger flush draw. Bet out, get it in if raised.

#3 - No one has shown any strength and I really don't get the flop check unless Hero was going for a check raise with his draw. Bet out $1.20 and take it down. The 2 didn't hit anyone.

#4 - Raise to $1 and take it down. No reason to assume anyone is calling here, and our hand has value if we do.

#5 - ... What is this, Bizarre Line Friday? Call. You're still getting huge pot odds here.

#6 - Check, planning to raise. I want to get as much in on the flop as I can and Villain is extremely likely to bet in this spot if I check to him.

#7 - Check, planning to call. Villain's range is incredibly wide and there's almost zero chance that this flop hit him. I'm not getting three streets here without some help, so give him a chance to hit something. If he has a pocket pair or a flush draw, he'll likely bet assuming he's in good shape.

#8 - Call. I'm leading most turns because Villain is unlikely to bet twice as a loose-passive without some piece of the board... and if he has a piece, he'll be calling or raising on the turn.

#9 - Iso-raise to $1.10. Standard against a L-P limper

#10 - Continue with the aggression. Bet $1.70. If Villain calls, I likely have 10 outs against a pocket pair or an 8, and I can see the river cheaply.

#11 - What does Villain have? Any pocket pair, any queen, any eight, the same hand I do or any other gutshot, probably some Ax hands and club draws. Few of those hands are going away to a bet here. Can we three barrel? Sure. Villain will let us know if he has the Q here. Bet $3.

#12 - There's value to be had here. Qx and T9 almost have to bet the river given how the betting has gone. $2.50, trying to get a crying call from an 8 or 77 type hand.

#13 - Tightish button is expecting a c-bet here and may float us with a fair range of pocket pairs and will certainly call a jack. Bet $1.70.

#14 - Raise to $2.50. Standard.

#15 - No four-bet means I'm probably good here unless I run into the flopped boat. If I did, they're going to play it slow. Standard c-bet here to get rid of random Axs hands and to start getting value from lesser pocket pairs. Bet $5.

#16 - What's this "ugly" crap? BB is unlikely to hold a seven here. His range is much more skewed to pocket pairs and that card makes him that much less likely to be holding the boat. Ship it.

#17 - Call. No reason to bloat the pot in this spot. Just call in position with a very playable hand.

#18 - In position against a limper with a suited ace. Raise it up.

#19 - I have a bluff catcher here. Villain isn't crazy aggro but he's definitely willing to bluff and this is a very drawy flop. Probably weak-tight on my part, but I'm folding. Just too many cards I don't want to see.

#20 - Last time he was bombing away, this time he's betting weak. With a double gutter and overs, I clearly call.

#21 - Call and raise the river. Villain is showing a willingness to put money in the pot here and I have the nuts, so I'm willing to let him keep poking in the hopes that he'll make a big bet at the end. If I raise and he folds, I'll know his small bets tend to be bluffs.

#22 - Can't walk away getting those odds with a couple of face cards. Even as little stealing as he does. Call.

#23 - Best flop I could hope for. Villain is likely to take a stab at this pot and I'm happy to let him. Check, planning to call a bet.

#24 - Situation hasn't changed. That reads stock c-bet. Call.

#25 - Yeti theorem. A three bet on a dry flop is almost always a bluff. Call. Sadly, I can make the argument for any of those plays and I strongly suspect this is just me being indecisive.

Good. Learning situation.

#26 - Changes nothing. Ship it.

#27 - Standard raise to .85, given the options.

#28 - Villain is unlikely to have hit that board, a c-bet is in order. Bet $1.20

#29 - Villain could easily float that board with all kinds of air. This seems like a mandatory two barrel to me. Bet $3.50.

#30 - The flush draw missed and Villain has played very passively. Betting out here isn't getting called by anything I can beat and I doubt I'm pushing off a better ace here. Check, planning to call and pick off a couple of high cards or a weak diamond flush draw? Probably too hopeful.

#31 - Check, check, big river bet when the draws miss? Call.

#32 - Re-isolating isn't a terrible play here, but I like calling better. Suited connector, in position, multiway? Please.

#33 - Dry flop, weak bet, TAG opponent? He's unlikely to have anything. Raise to $5.50 here, expecting to take it down most of the time, with the gutshot for outs if he does call. I can shut down without fear if I get called.

#34 - Math question. 8 outs, all clean against Villain's likely Q. 38:8 = 4.7:1 to hit, getting 2:1 odds. Can I get a pot bet on the river? Probably. Call.

#35 - Call. You're not leading with a ten.

#36 - Wow. Gotta fold here. We're losing to most pocket pairs and it's an awful flop for him to be bluffing on.

#37 - How often is a 35/5 hitting this flop? Just about never, but we don't want to see another card. Raise to $4.50.

#38 - Bet $2.50. See if he's planning on sticking around.

#39 - Playing the board against a Villain with a completely undefined hand range. Greeeeat. Well, he doesn't have an 8. Is he folding an A to a bet here? Probably not. Check and give it up.

----------

Answers -

----------

#1 - 97s in the BB (1)

CO posts, button minraises, both are 40xBB - Hero...?

- Call. We can't raise for value here and we're not going to push a short stacking minraiser out of the pot preflop. We've got a hand that plays very well multiway, lets see a flop.

#2 - Same as #1 (1)

Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop 446tt - We have flush draw. Hero...?

- Check-raising here is still a semi-bluff as we're almost always behind. The problem is that we're never folding out ANYTHING with value from the button player.

Check-calling is bad because our equity is going to change dramatically on the turn. We don't want it to go around without a bet and these guys look passive.

Betting out to take advantage of our current equity and fold equity is the best option.

#3 - Same as #1 (1)

Checks through

Turn 4462tt - Hero...?

- Good card for us as it is unlikely to have hit either of our Villains. Bet out for the same reason as #2 - pick up the dead money.

#4 - 33 in the SB (1)

MP posts, Hero...?

- Raise is standard. Villain is weak, take the dead money.

#5 - Same as #4 (1)

Hero limps, BB raises, MP folds, Hero...?

- Call is standard. We're getting massive implied odds on flopping a set here.

#6 - Same as #4 (1)

Hero calls

Flop 653mono - Hero...?

- A lot of Villain's range has good equity here, and even more of it is going to c-bet here. We can get value by letting Villain bet and getting more money in preflop, as I expected. Check, planning to raise.

#7 - J2o in the BB (0)

MP limps, Hero checks

Flop 322tt - Hero...?

- Bet. We have no other way to get value here. Lead out and hope Villain has a pair that he can pay us with.

#8 - Same as #7 (0)

Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero calls.

Turn 3225tt - Hero...?

- Betbetbet. Same as #7.

#9 - JTo in the CO (1)

MP limps, Hero...?

- Standard iso-raise.

#10 - Same as #9 (1)

Hero raises, Villain calls.

Flop QQ8tt - Villain (74/16) checks, Hero...?

- Make a standard c-bet of $1.70. Our goal is to get Villain to fold his air, because he's never folding a real hand in this spot.

#11 - Same as #9 (0)

Hero bets $1.25, Villain calls

Turn QQ86tt - Villain checks, Hero...?

- Villain has a hand by calling on the flop. Don't bluff someone who isn't bluffable. Check.

#12 - Same as #9 (1)

Hero checks through.

River QQ86J - Villain checks. Hero...?

- Villain has checked every street. He's very unlikely to have a queen. So what made hands does he have? Any 8, a flush draw, small pocket pairs... So we want to bet thin value here. A bad player will likely call a larger bet here, while a decent one will look you up for a small bet. Bet $2.50 or $5.

#13 - KK in MP (1)

Hero open raises, button calls.

Flop J63tt - Hero...?

- We can get value from a million things and we're behind very few hands. Bet, bet, bet.

#14 - JJ in the SB (1)

MP opens, Hero...?

- 3-betting is standard. Nearly everyone at these limits is going to call with enough worse hands to make a 3-bet here for value.

#15 - Same as #14 (1)

BB calls, MP calls.

Flop 722 - Hero...?

- Bet out. Standard.

#16 - Same as #14 (1)

Hero bets, BB calls, MP folds.

Turn 7227 - Hero...?

- Ship it. If Villain has a 7 or QQ, so be it. But given the action, he's represented a mid pair and we're reasonably ahead of his range.

#17 - KJo in the BB (1/2)

SB raises, Hero...?

- Does this Villain call OOP to three bets? If so, we should be doing this for value. Against a tighter player who doesn't have a huge calling range, just call and play in position. The better the player, the more likely you should be to call

#18 - A8s on the button (1)

MP limps, Hero...?

- RAISERAISERAISE

#19 - Same as #18 (0)

Hero raises, Villain calls

Flop 986r - Villain bets pot, Hero...?

- Folding is not an option here. Given the line Villain is either a passive player who just hit a monster, or a bad aggressive player doing what bad aggressive players do. Our choice is to raise now and push him off of air or call and try to dodge a turn. Call.

#20 - KJo in CO (0)

UTG limps, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Flop T97r - Raise. We want to take control of the hand because we want him to fold out his equity.

#21 - Same as #20 (0)

Hero calls

Turn T97Q - Villain leads .50, Hero...?

- Epic fail on my part. VALUEVALUEVALUE. Set up the river shove by betting pot. Get some money in there while the getting is good. Villain will call with a huge range of made hands and draws here, all with pretty bad equity.

#22 - KTo in the BB (0)

L-P Button minraises. Hero...?

- 3-bet for value. More epic fail on my part. This reads weak.

#23 - Same as #22 (0)

Hero calls

Flop T53r - Hero...?

- Check here because we expect Villain to bet. But do we raise or call? If we raise, we expect a 40/9 to call with a wide range - worse tens, any five, any three, medium pocket pairs. If we get four-bet, we can fold easily against the passive player.

#24 - Same as #22 (0)

Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero...?

- Check-raise, as #23

#25 - Same as #22 (0)

Hero checkraises, Villain minreraises... Hero?

- We have Villain listed as passive, so we fold here. If Villain is aggressive and bluffy, we want to consider calling.

#26 - Same as #22 (1)

Hero calls

Turn T532 - Hero checks, Villain bets half his stack, Hero...?

- Shove. When we got here from the flop, we have to assume that we're putting him on enough air to get it in on the turn.

#27 - ATs in the BB (1)

MP limps, Hero...?

- RAISERAISERAISE

#28 - Same as #27 (1)

Flop 932tt - Hero...?

- Standard c-bet here

#29 - Same as #27 (0)

Hero c-bets, Villain calls

Turn 9326tt - Hero...?

- Check planning to fold. We're done.

#30-1 - Same as #27 (0)

Checked through

River 93267 - all draws miss, Hero...?

- We're done. There's a lot of things he can bet that we can't beat

#32 - 87s in the CO (1)

UTG limps, MP raises, Hero...?

- Easy call. Multiway pot with a big fish in there... No need to kill our postflop equity.

#33 - Same as #32 (0)

Hero calls, MP folds

Flop Q64r - Villain leads for half pot, Hero...?

- Call. Great equity against a likely c-bet. We could very easily take this down on the turn. No need to rush it.

#34 - Same as #32 (1)

Hero calls

Turn Q64T - Villain leads for half pot, Hero...?

- Call. If we spike a straight, we're getting his stack.

#35 - 66 on the button (1)

Hero raises, BB calls

Flop TT5r - Villain pots into us. Hero...?

- Donkbet usually indicates bad aggressive player. Do we want to call or raise? There are a lot of cards that can come that we don't want to see, but it's close on calling or raising here.

#36 - Same as #35 (0)

Hero calls

Turn TT55 - Villain leads for pot again. Hero...?

- Never fold here. There's very few value hands that he can have here and he has very little money left behind. Jam it.

#37 - 66 UTG (1)

Hero raises, SB callls

Flop K88 - Villain donk leads, Hero...?

- Villain likely doesn't have a strong hand here, and as we're very vulnerable to overcards we should be more inclined to raise. Calling isn't terrible, however.

#38 - Same as #37 (1)

Hero calls

Turn K887 - Villain checks, Hero...?

- Bet. If Villain is giving up, take it down so he doesn't get a chance at spiking an overcard.

#39 - Same as #37 (0)

Hero checks

River K887K - Villain checks, Hero...?

- Take a shot with a half pot bet. We're never getting him off of an A, but we may be able to take him off air that beats us.

WWJTD #7

2010-01-06T13:39:00.001-08:00

WWJTD #7

----------

My answers

----------

#1 - Standard c-bet spot. I can go away fairly easily if checkraised. Bet $2

#2 - I like the question - requires some hard thinking about what Villain's range is and how the hand will play on the river against each.

If I bet here, I'm likely getting check-raised by sets, called by straight draws and pairs, and stand a good chance of folding out overcards.

Bet $6 here to take the pot or build one to take on the river, fold to a big RR that kills my implied odds but call a normal one, barrel on AKbrick rivers.

#3 - Raise enough to put Villain all in. The decision here isn't whether we're going to play and isolate (we are), but how the play is going to proceed postflop.

If we make a standard bet, Villain may sneak away with his cup of coffee after the flop if he misses. Put him in.

#4 - Raise to $1.75. Standard.

#5 - That's my flop. Standard c-bet for $2.50

#6 - Check planning to fold or take a free showdown unimproved. There's no draw Villain can be on with that flop and certainly no reason to be barreling. He's not going away and could be trapping with a monster. His calling range on that flop is any ace, two pair, and sets.

#7 - Call. Villain probably suspects weakness on my part and is likely betting his entire range from the turn. We lose to AK/AQ/sets and are beating everything else. No reason to bloat the pot here.

#8 - Not sure, so it's a good question for me.

Call and get it in on good flops? No. In this case, Villain is just going to C/F the hands that we beat and own us with his AA/KK hands. Shipping it has the same problem. Folding it is obviously too weak.

4-bet to $15 and fold to a ship. 5-bet bluffing is very unlikely at these levels and Villain has shown no maniacal tendencies.

#9 - 3-bet to $7.50. I don't want to play a top pair type of hand OOP, multiway. Tight-passive opener can fold here, and I'll have initiative postflop if called.

#10 - Dry as a bone. I need to c-bet this flop and leave enough behind for a credible two barrel to push Villain off of a stubborn QQ/JJ. Bet $10, intending to two barrel bricks, kings, and aces on the turn.

#11 - Bet $2.50. Take the initiative, plan to fire most flops.

#12 - Ugh. Very poor flop for me not in the sense that it isn't in my range, but that it is very much in Villain's. Check here, planning to go away to a bet and hoping to pick up a backdoor draw on the turn.

#13 - Call. I have a flush draw, getting 3:1 with good implied odds - especially if the L-P button calls behind.

#14 - Villain has something here - What's his range for the turn and river bets? Weak queens, any ten, J9/KJ for an OESD on the turn. Could he be bluffing here? Sure - 89, any two hearts... We have showdown value, but betting here can't be good as we're only getting called by hands that have us beat. Call.

#15 - Loose passive fish? Isolate. Raise to 2.50.

#16 - Standard c-bet to 3.25

#17 - Raise to 2.50. Pound on the loose-passive fish.

#18 - Raise to 2.50. Same as #17.

#19 - Bet out $2 with top pair. Flushes are unlikely, but we want initiative and to charge the draws and can easily bail if the flush comes in.

#20 - Fold, given the read of Villain as L-P. He could have either the draw or the flush here.

#21 - Raise to $7. My range crushes his right now, and I'm quite happy to get it all in preflop with a 30xbb short stack.

#22 - Call. Button, suited ace, loose, aggressive Villain. I don't want to bloat the preflop pot here.

#23 - Fold. The short SB isn't giving us any kind of implied odds here.

#24 - Check. Not a board that hits us and this situation just screams checkraise. SB *has* to c-bet that board and he didn't? Not buying it.

#25 - Call and see a flop. No reason to assume that bloating with a couple of medium cards is going to help us.

#26 - Standard c-bet. We either bet here or give up on the pot. With 2 checks into us, we stand a fair chance of it working. Bet 6.50.

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Answers

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#1 - T8s on the button (1)

Hero opens, BB (40xbb) calls

Flop 963r - BB checks, Hero...?

- Standard c-bet spot.

#2 - Same as #1 (1)

Hero bets, Villain calls

Turn 963Jtt - We have a flush draw and an OESD. Villain checks, Hero...?

- My error here is that I didn't pay attention to the stack sizes... then again, neither did the coaches! We have very good fold equity as well as pot equity. Betting $6 and calling it off or shoving are both viable.

If Villain is on the same size stack as we hold, if Villain check-raises, he'd have to bet more than pot to force us out.

If Villain is deep and calls us, barrel aces and kings.

#3 - A9s on the button (1)

12xBB stack opens from CO, Hero...?

- Tilted Villain, just put him in and expect to get called light fairly often.

#4 - KQs UTG (1)

Hero...?

- Raise to $1.75. Seriously. No debate here.

#5 - Same as #4 (1)

L-P SB calls

Flop AK6r - Villain checks, Hero...?

- Betting and checking here are both perfectly fine. There aren't any cards we're afraid of coming on the turn, so a check may induce a bluff. The c-bet in the face of apparent weakness is just as good a choice.

#6 - Same as #4 (0)

Hero c-bets, Villain calls

Turn AK69r - Villain checks, Hero...?

- What's Villain's calling range? Any ace, decent kings, some gutshots and weaker pocket pairs. Betting and checking are both reasonable plays here. If you bet, you're planning to check behind on the turn as you're in big trouble if three bets go in. If you check, you're planning on calling a bet on the river.

#7 - Same as #4 (1/2)

Hero checks behind

River AK69Q - Villain leads $5 into $9. Hero...?

- When you check the turn after betting the flop and getting called, Villain will often lead the river with anything. We only need to be right 27% of the time here given the pot odds. A smallish raise here is likely to be a steal, while calling is good against a full pot bet.

LESSON TO LEARN - When you bet-check and are led into, be ready to bluff catch

#8 - QQ in the CO. (0)

Tight over a limited sample button 3-bets Hero's opening raise. Hero...?

- 4-bet to $15 and call a shove. Flatting and getting it in on non-A/K flops is also a valid choice. We simply don't have enough information against this player to put him on a strong three bet range. Stop being so nitty.

BONUS - Flop K72r - Check here and call a shove, or push any non-ace turn.

#9 - AJo in the SB (1)

TAG raises from MP, LAG calls from CO, Hero...?

- Folding is the least attractive of the viable options, as Villain's hand is fairly strong.

Calling is a form of pot control and will keep in those hands that are worse than ours - KT/QJ-ish types. But it means we have to be very careful postflop.

3-betting makes preflop into the decision point for Villain. He's calling mostly with better hands (and some we race with, like TT) however, so if we are called, the situation will require some finesse.

#10 - Same as #9 (1)

Hero squeezes to $7.50. MP calls.

Flop K62r - Hero...?

- TAGs fold to 3-bet % would be a very useful stat here to identify what his calling range is here. The wider it is, the less likely this is to have hit his hand. The tighter it is, the more likely we should just give up here.

LESSON TO LEARN - If we bluff here, we're getting called a lot. We need to leave enough behind to barrel on the turn and we NEED to make that two barrel.

Bet here, leaving enough behind to fire on the turn.

#11 - K8s in the BB. (1)

Button open limps, SB completes, Hero...?

- RAISE. Everyone is projecting weakness, you do very well against their ranges. Bump it up.

#12 - Same as #11 (1)

Button and SB call

Flop QT2r - SB checks, Hero...?

Check here. Villains are short stacked and we have nothing on a board that hits them squarely.

#13 - Same as #11 (1)

Checked through

Turn QT27tt - SB bets $2 into $6. Hero...?

- We have 9 outs to a flush and possible overcard outs against a player who is very likely weak and trying to steal. Raising and calling here are both good choice - the first to attempt to end it now with odds should we be called, the second because we're getting the proper odds to chase.

#14 - Same as #11 (1/2)

Hero calls, Button folds.

River Q2T7K - Villain bets $3.5 into $10. Hero...?

- We probably have the best hand here, given the nature of the player. Raise rather than call, though this is a thin value bet.

#15 - K9o on the button (1)

MP limps, Hero...?

- Isolate the limper, isolate the limper, isolate the limper.

#16 - Same as #15 (1)

Hero raises

Flop 432r - Villain checks, Hero...?

- It's a +EV c-bet. DO EEEET.

#17 - KJo in the BB (1)

button limps, Hero...?

- Easy raise. His range is weeeeeeak.

#18 - KJo in the SB (1)

MP limps, CO posts and checks, Hero...?

- RRRRRRAAAAAAIIIIISSSSSSEEEEEE. They're all weak. Isolate and take down the dead money.

#19 - Same as #18 (1)

Hero completes, BB checks

Flop K53 mono - Hero...?

- Lead out here for $2.

#20 - Same as #18 (1)

Hero checks, BB checks, MP pushes $10.4 stack into $2 pot. Button folds, Hero...?

- Fold. Calls aren't terrible because Villain has a lot of club draws in his range. We need 46% equity to break even here, and that's what we have if he has a club in his hand. With a player still to act, bleah. Just bet in the first place, making this spot easy.

#21 - QQ in the BB (1)

Unknown CO on 35xbb stack raises, Hero...?

- RR preflop to $7. We're way ahead of his range and don't mind getting all in to a four bet.

#22 - AJs on the button (1)

MP raises, Hero...?

- Call is standard, 3-bet isn't entirely unreasonable here - though we don't know a ton about this Villain. We don't mind seeing a flop in position.

#23 - Same as #22 (1)

Hero calls, TAG SB on half stack 3-bets to $5.5. MP calls, Hero...?

- Fold. Calling isn't terrible given the MP is in the pot, but we don't have much of a read against these players and SB is likely on a tight range here. Also, the three bettor is very shallow and if we wind up deep in the hand, it's most likely to be against him.

#24 - Same as #22 (1)

Hero calls.

Flop 994tt - SB snap checks, MP checks, Hero...?

- The odds of getting folds from both of these guys? Almost none. SB barely has a pot sized bet left. Check behind.

#25 - J8o on the button (0)

I was? Clear raise against the UTG poster. I thought I was in the blinds. Must have misread.

#26 - 55 in MP (1)

UTG limps, Hero raises, button calls, SB calls, UTG calls

Flop 322 - SB checks, UTG checks, Hero...?

- We have an overpair and we're best here a good portion of the time. Bet and get rid of a lot of overcards against us.